FY2027 Q1: focus on initial progress toward the full-year plan, taking seasonality into account

The company has consistently explained that promotional campaigns targeting the year-end shopping season and summer bonus season are often conducted from October to December and April to June, respectively, resulting in a tendency for revenue to be concentrated in Q2 and Q4. In actual results, Q2 accounted for 35.1% of annual revenue and Q4 for 24.2% in the fiscal year ended June 2019, while Q2 accounted for 33.4% in the fiscal year ended June 2022 and 31.4% in the fiscal year ended June 2023. Accordingly, it is not appropriate to assess Q1 revenue or profit simply against a 25% benchmark.

The FY2027 full-year forecast presented by the company at the FY2026 full-year results announcement was revenue of ¥20,700 million, operating profit of ¥2,165 million, ordinary profit of ¥2,200 million, and net income attributable to owners of the parent of ¥1,444 million. For FY2027 Q1, it is necessary to calculate actual progress against these annual forecasts and check year-on-year changes. However, the publicly available information does not include a standalone Q1 company plan or quarterly forecasts, so there are limits to judging the likelihood of achieving the full-year targets mechanically based on progress rates alone.

At the next earnings release, the key issue will be the explanation of order intake and revenue recognition timing in light of seasonality, rather than Q1's strength or weakness itself. In particular, changes in the timing of revenue recognition caused by changes in event schedules have long been recognized as a risk, and the company has also described a process for reconciling project completion dates with its order management system and work completion confirmation forms. In the Q1 results disclosure, we will check for projects brought forward or delayed, carryovers into Q2 and beyond, and whether the full-year forecasts are maintained or revised.