Can the Q1 shortfall be made up in H1 while the full-year forecast remains unchanged?

FY2027 Q1 covered the period from 1 March to 31 May 2026, with revenue of ¥7,403 million, an operating loss of ¥213 million, an ordinary loss of ¥207 million and a quarterly net loss attributable to owners of the parent of ¥165 million. Revenue increased 4.1% year on year and was described as a record high for a first quarter, but losses remained at the operating, ordinary and bottom-line levels.

Revenue of ¥7,403 million represents 20.8% of the full-year forecast of ¥35,640 million. Compared mechanically with the 25% elapsed-period ratio at the end of Q1, progress was 4.2 percentage points behind. The education business is seasonal, and Q1 has also been indicated to have lower profitability, so it would be premature to conclude from this gap alone that the full-year target will be missed. However, a key point for H1 will be whether revenue can at least approach the mechanical 50% benchmark of ¥17,820 million.

After deducting Q1 results from the full-year forecasts, the revenue and operating profit required over the remaining three quarters are ¥28,237 million and ¥3,088 million, respectively. If allocated evenly, average quarterly revenue of approximately ¥9,412 million and operating profit of approximately ¥1,029 million would be required in Q2–Q4. However, given the seasonality of Q1 operating profit, it is more important to determine whether the company assumes that it will exit the loss position in H1 and how much profit it expects to accumulate thereafter than to assess H1 operating profit mechanically at 50% of the full-year forecast.

The company did not revise its full-year earnings forecasts as of Q1 and left its annual dividend forecast unchanged at ¥10 per share. The earnings supplementary materials include the full-year forecast figures, but do not show progress against the forecasts, the levels required over the remaining period, or the company’s own assessment of potential upside or downside. Accordingly, the focus for H1 will be not merely whether the forecasts are maintained, but whether the company provides numerical detail on revenue progress, a return to operating profitability and its profit assumptions from Q2 onward.