Revenue is broadly on a time-proportional track against the full-year forecast, but can the year-on-year decline be reversed?

First-quarter revenue for the fiscal year ending March 2027 was ¥1,224 million, down ¥61 million from ¥1,285 million in the year-earlier quarter. Revenue fell 4.7% year on year, and the company cited a difficult operating environment, including consumers’ greater propensity to economize amid rising prices, intensifying competition between stores, and concerns about stagnant personal consumption. However, it has not provided quantitative disclosure breaking down the decline by customer numbers, average spend per customer, store count, or existing stores.

The full-year revenue forecast is ¥5,200 million, making first-quarter progress 23.5% and leaving ¥3,976 million required on an absolute basis. Since 25% of the calendar year had elapsed at the end of the first quarter, progress was not significantly behind on a simple time-proportional basis. However, the company has not disclosed quarterly seasonality or the allocation of revenue between H1 and H2 in the beauty business, so the 23.5% progress rate alone cannot determine whether the full-year target will be achieved.

In the next 2Q results, we will use ¥2,600 million, the simple half-year equivalent of the full-year forecast, as a benchmark for cumulative H1 revenue. At the same time, it will be necessary to assess whether the year-on-year change improves from the first quarter’s 4.7% decline and how much the five business transfers scheduled for July and August contributed to revenue. The company currently reports a single beauty business segment and does not disclose segment revenue.

The full-year forecast remains revenue of ¥5,200 million, up 2.5% year on year. Accordingly, in 2Q we will assess not only the absolute revenue figure, but also whether existing stores continue to decline, whether the acquired stores are offsetting the decline, and whether maintaining the full-year forecast is reasonable. If store-level or existing-store disclosure is unavailable, the extent to which the company’s explanation of revenue growth and decline factors has become more specific will also be an important assessment point.