Despite a Q1 upside, full-year FY2027 forecast remains higher revenue but lower operating profit

FY2027-Q1 revenue was ¥180,734 million, operating profit was ¥47,716 million, ordinary profit was ¥58,309 million and net profit attributable to owners of the parent was ¥41,297 million. Year on year, revenue increased 10.4%, operating profit 23.1%, ordinary profit 48.6% and net profit 50.3%, with profit growing faster than revenue. Progress against the full-year forecast was approximately 25.0% for revenue and 29.7% for operating profit, marking a start in which profit progress outpaced revenue progress.

However, comparing FY2026 results with the FY2027 forecast, revenue is planned to increase 2.8% from ¥704,539 million to ¥724,312 million, while operating profit is expected to decline 4.5% from ¥168,413 million to ¥160,776 million. The operating margin is also calculated to fall from 23.9% in FY2026 to approximately 22.2% in the FY2027 forecast, so the assumption is not that the Q1 operating margin of approximately 26.4% will carry through to the full year. The strong Q1 and the full-year profit decline plan likely reflect differences in seasonality, the timing of expenses and weather conditions.

At the Q1 results briefing, the company indicated that the outlook for Q2 and the full year was being maintained because the impact of factors including weather remained uncertain. The company also explained that Q1 revenue and operating profit exceeded the initial forecasts, but did not disclose the amount of the upside or progress against the full-year forecast. In FY2027-H1, it will be important to distinguish the effects of summer weather, the fading or continuing impact of the Tokyo DisneySea 25th anniversary event, and contributions from higher-priced tickets and paid services, and to determine whether the rationale for maintaining the full-year forecast becomes more specific.

The key points to verify are whether revenue growth was driven by attendance or higher unit prices, and whether the increase in operating profit includes temporary reductions in expenses. In Q1, both attendance and revenue per guest exceeded the prior-year quarter, but absolute figures were not provided. If H1 results disclose actual amounts or year-on-year changes in attendance, revenue per guest, event-related expenses, personnel expenses and repair expenses, it will be easier to assess consistency with the full-year forecast for lower operating profit.