Winter resurgence in infections will drive Q3 results for combination test kits

FY2026-H1 sales of COVID-19 test reagents were ¥1,830 million, down 16.4% year on year. By product, shipments of the Smart Gene SARS-CoV-2 molecular test kit fell sharply from approximately 80,000 tests in the year-earlier period to approximately 27,000. By contrast, shipments of antigen kits were approximately 2.4 million tests, broadly in line with the year-earlier period, indicating that demand continues to shift from molecular to antigen testing.

Infection trends are important when assessing fluctuations in volumes. The COVID-19 wave in winter 2025/2026 was more subdued than in the year-earlier period, while the summer wave gradually expanded from early June 2026. Influenza reached alert levels unusually early, in mid-November 2025, subsided temporarily at the end of December, then resurged in February 2026, mainly involving type B, resulting in a second alert being issued. Q3 is the period in which summer COVID-19 demand should be reflected in results, so the Q3 materials should be checked to determine whether the expanding wave actually translated into antigen-kit shipments.

Interim sales of influenza-only test reagents were ¥300 million, up just 1.3% year on year. The company said demand for standalone tests increased, but demand for combination tests with COVID-19 grew more strongly. This means that sales are being influenced not only by the scale of the outbreaks but also by the product mix between standalone and combination tests. A key Q3 focus will be whether sales or shipped test volumes are disclosed separately for standalone tests, combination test kits and other infectious-disease tests.

The full-year forecast assumes that COVID-19 will resurge in winter and that the 2026/2027 influenza season will start earlier and continue to expand rapidly. However, the timing and scale of outbreaks are external factors beyond the company’s control, and meeting the full-year forecast will require antigen-kit demand from Q3 onward and strong winter demand for combination tests. Recent news has also focused on the early start of the influenza season and efforts to address test-kit supply. At the Q3 results, we will seek to verify the effectiveness of demand through shipments and sales, rather than through outbreak news alone.