Termination of the supply agreement with CSL Behring is the key variable for FY2027 earnings

On 8 October 2026, Terumo revised its full-year FY2027 forecast following the termination of a supply agreement for plasma collection devices with a US subsidiary of CSL Behring. In the immediately preceding FY2027 first-quarter results, the company had forecast revenue of ¥1,239.0 billion, operating profit of ¥257.5 billion, and profit attributable to owners of the parent of ¥193.1 billion. Following the revision, the forecasts were revenue of ¥1,229.5 billion, operating profit of ¥160.0 billion, and net profit of ¥120.0 billion. Revenue was reduced by only ¥95.0 billion, while operating profit and net profit were reduced by ¥97.5 billion and ¥73.1 billion, respectively, showing that the impact of the termination is concentrated in profit.

The news disclosure estimated the total loss associated with the termination at approximately US$610 million, including impairment of related assets, business losses during the transition period, and contract-termination and business-restructuring expenses. The reduction in the operating profit forecast appears to reflect not only weaker ordinary sales volumes or pricing, but also non-recurring accounting treatment associated with the contract termination. However, adjusted operating profit is said to be unchanged. Accordingly, in FY2027-H1 the focus will be on the size of the gap between reported and adjusted operating profit and whether that gap can be explained solely by one-off expenses.

The most important point at the next earnings release will be which line items record the estimated US$610 million loss and in what amounts. If impairment losses, contract-termination costs, business-restructuring expenses, inventory valuation, and operating losses during the transition period are separately identified, the impact on reported profit can be distinguished from the scale of future cash outflows. Conversely, if multiple items are presented together and the impact on the operating results of the Blood and Cell Technologies Company is not disclosed, it will be difficult to assess the scale and profitability of the business after the termination.

As of FY2027-Q1, the Blood and Cell Technologies Company reported revenue of ¥60,776 million and segment profit of ¥11,135 million. These results predate the announcement of the termination. In FY2027-H1, the impact on existing customers of the Plasma Innovation business, device sales, and consumables and service revenue will need to be assessed not only through revenue, but also through profit and cash flow. Even if adjusted operating profit is maintained, the quality of earnings should still be viewed cautiously if additional burdens remain after the termination through equipment utilization, inventory disposal, or future sales plans.