Q1 revenue growth is on track, but the US and Japan are weak excluding the effect of yen depreciation

Revenue in FY2027-Q1 was ¥12,199 million, up 10.2% year on year, while operating profit was ¥2,014 million, up 9.1%. With the full-year forecasts unchanged at ¥46,400 million for revenue and ¥4,200 million for operating profit, Q1 progress was 26.3% for revenue and 48.0% for operating profit. A simple half-year benchmark based on evenly splitting the year is ¥23,200 million for revenue and ¥2,100 million for operating profit, making these useful pace checks for FY2027-H1. However, the pharmaceutical business is subject to seasonality arising from product launch timing, wholesaler inventories and the US insurance system, so falling short of 50% alone should not be taken to indicate that the full-year forecasts will be missed.

Q1 regional revenue was ¥5,689 million in the US, ¥1,039 million in Japan, ¥2,821 million in Europe, ¥742 million in Latin America, ¥523 million in China, ¥266 million in Asia excluding Japan and China, ¥354 million in Russia/CIS and ¥767 million in Other. On an actual exchange-rate basis, the US grew 4.1%, Japan declined 3.8% and Europe grew 19.1%, while on a CER basis the US declined 5.2%, Japan declined 4.2% and Europe grew 4.9%. Accordingly, consolidated revenue growth in Q1 included a meaningful translation benefit from yen depreciation and does not indicate strong underlying demand growth in the largest region, the US.

In FY2027-H1, it will be necessary to determine whether the CER-based decline in the US reflects not only the impact of generic VYVANSE but also other core products and changes in the reimbursement environment. In Japan, the key issue is whether declines in mature domestic products are being absorbed by growth in new products and existing core products. Since the Q1 summary report does not disclose revenue and profit by business area, it will also be important to see how much detail by region and disease area is updated in the H1 supplementary materials.