Whether the FY2026 upward revision can be validated by full-year results

9M revenue was ¥4,392 million, up 31.1% year on year, and operating income was ¥844 million, up 101.0%. Operating income had already exceeded the upper end of the previous full-year forecast, which was in the range of just under ¥700 million to ¥800 million, as of the 9M results. Progress was therefore already strong on the profit side.

The subsequent full-year forecasts were raised to revenue of ¥5,850 million, operating income of ¥860 million, ordinary income of ¥860 million and net income of ¥740 million. The gaps between the 9M actual results and these forecasts are ¥1,458 million for revenue, ¥16 million for operating income, ¥12 million for ordinary income and ¥57 million for net income. Accordingly, the required Q4 amount is small when viewed solely against the profit forecasts, but revenue may need to be recorded in Q4 alone at a level exceeding the previous year, making it necessary to assess profit and revenue progress separately.

The company cited the acquisition of high-quality projects, mainly in home appliances and gadgets, the creation of large-scale projects, increased use of its outsourced advertising distribution service and company-wide cost management as reasons for the upward revision. However, it has not disclosed revenue contributions by factor, the number of large projects or the balance of projects scheduled to be recorded in Q4. The full-year results will therefore need to test whether the upward revision reflects temporary large projects or the repeatability of project acquisition and higher unit prices.

In the next results, it will be important to assess not only whether the revised forecasts of ¥5,850 million in revenue and ¥860 million in operating income are achieved, but also Q4 standalone revenue, operating income and operating margin. In particular, if revenue falls short while operating income meets the forecast, the result could reflect a timing shift in project recognition or a change in the mix toward higher-margin services. The breakdown of transaction value, outsourced advertising distribution and Makuake’s core business should therefore also be reviewed.