Can the front-loaded profit performance of Q1 be repeated in FY2027-H1?

In Q1 FY2027, revenue was ¥6,483 million, operating profit was ¥691 million, ordinary profit was ¥694 million, and net income attributable to owners of the parent was ¥435 million. Year on year, revenue increased 61.7%, operating profit 210.1%, ordinary profit 183.7%, and net income 215.3%, with earnings growth outpacing revenue growth. Q1 standalone revenue, operating profit and EBITDA were ¥6,483 million, ¥691 million and ¥1,026 million, respectively, all described as record highs.

The full-year forecasts are revenue of ¥23,500 million, operating profit of ¥1,700 million, ordinary profit of ¥1,620 million and net income of ¥1,100 million. Q1 progress was 27.6% for revenue, compared with 40.7% for operating profit, 42.8% for ordinary profit and 39.6% for net income, indicating that earnings are running ahead of revenue. This is strong compared with a simple even quarterly run rate, but the company has not disclosed whether the volume or unit prices of waste and recycled products, or the timing of project recognition, are seasonal. Full-year achievement therefore cannot be concluded from the early progress in a single quarter.

Using 50% of the full-year forecast as a mechanical first-half benchmark, the figures are revenue of ¥11,750 million, operating profit of ¥850 million, ordinary profit of ¥810 million and net income of ¥550 million. After deducting Q1 results, Q2 alone would need to generate revenue of ¥5,267 million, operating profit of ¥159 million, ordinary profit of ¥116 million and net income of ¥115 million. These are comparison benchmarks for assessing progress, not the company’s first-half plan. The key point will be how far the actual first-half cumulative figures exceed these levels.

Standalone Q4 of the previous fiscal year was also strong, with revenue of ¥6,298 million, operating profit of ¥585 million and EBITDA of ¥928 million. We therefore want to determine whether the current Q1 results represent a sustained step-up in earnings over multiple quarters rather than a temporary rebound. In FY2027-H1, we will check whether the operating margin has fallen significantly from Q1’s 10.7%, whether contributions from M&A and large projects are continuing, and whether the full-year forecast is maintained or raised.