FY2026 full-year forecast hinges on adding ¥2,578 million in revenue and ¥79 million in operating profit in Q4

Revenue for the first 9 months was ¥8,022 million, up 13.7% year on year, while operating profit was ¥751 million, up 141.0%. The full-year forecast, raised as of August, calls for revenue of ¥10,600 million and operating profit of ¥830 million. On a simple calculation, this represents progress rates of 75.7% for revenue and 90.5% for operating profit. The amounts still required to achieve the full-year forecast are ¥2,578 million in revenue and ¥79 million in operating profit.

The company's contract development business is structured such that revenue and profit tend to be concentrated in Q2 and Q4, reflecting financial institutions' IT investment budgets and the timing of new product sales by life insurers. Accordingly, full-year achievement should not be assessed solely on the progress rate through Q3. The acceptance timing of systems for life insurance product specifications and application forms, sales support systems, and projects for banks and securities companies scheduled for Q4 must also be confirmed.

Operating profit has already reached 90.5% of the full-year forecast, making achievement appear highly likely on the profit side. On the other hand, the full-year operating margin is calculated at approximately 7.8%, based on ¥830 million divided by ¥10,600 million, implying a decline from the 9.4% operating margin for the first 9 months. The earnings briefing should clarify whether this difference reflects seasonality or higher subcontracting costs, personnel expenses and pre-acceptance costs in Q4.

The latest earnings release does not disclose orders received, order backlog, project-by-project acceptance schedules, or the Q4-only revenue and profit plan. At the next results announcement, it will be important to see whether, in addition to confirming achievement of the full-year revenue forecast of ¥10,600 million and operating profit forecast of ¥830 million, the reasons for any shortfall or upside can be broken down between life insurance, banking, securities and IFA, and usage-based fees.