Maintaining year-on-year revenue and profit growth in Q4 is necessary to meet the full-year forecast

Cumulative revenue through Q3 FY2026 was ¥69,728 million and operating profit was ¥29,112 million, up 14.3% and 24.2%, respectively, year on year. The full-year forecast is revenue of ¥93,235 million and operating profit of ¥37,639 million, implying progress rates of 74.8% for revenue and 77.3% for operating profit. Operating profit is 2.5 percentage points ahead of revenue in terms of progress, indicating that profit growth is slightly ahead.

Based on the full-year forecast, the required Q4 revenue is ¥23,507 million and operating profit is ¥8,527 million. Q4 FY2025, calculated as the difference between full-year FY2025 results and cumulative results through Q3, recorded revenue of ¥21,497 million and operating profit of ¥7,896 million. Accordingly, revenue must increase by approximately 9.3% and operating profit by approximately 8.0% year on year in Q4 this fiscal year. This provides a more specific benchmark for assessing achievability than the cumulative progress rate alone.

Q3 alone recorded revenue of ¥23,644 million and operating profit of ¥10,320 million, with operating profit up 26.9% year on year. This exceeded the 24.2% cumulative profit growth rate, indicating that profitability did not deteriorate in the latest quarter. However, the Q3 presentation did not provide sufficient quantitative assumptions underlying the full-year forecast, including foreign exchange rates, costs and the timing of project recognition. The momentum in Q3 therefore may not continue unchanged into Q4.

In the next earnings release, Q4 standalone revenue, gross profit and operating profit should be reviewed separately. In particular, it will be important to distinguish the impact of face-to-face terminal deliveries and large project recognition being brought forward into Q3, the continuation of recurring revenue, and the earnings contribution from the financial services business. The assessment of growth quality will change depending not only on whether the full-year forecast is achieved, but also on whether the operating margin exceeds the full-year forecast of 40.4% or declines in Q4.