3Q-to-date operating profit reaches 98.6% of full-year forecast, with Q4 revenue recognition and forecast validity now in focus

For FY2026 3Q-to-date, revenue was ¥2,297 million, operating profit was ¥641 million, ordinary profit was ¥476 million and net profit for the quarter was ¥329 million. Year on year, revenue increased 79.3%, operating profit 167.6%, ordinary profit 399.7% and net profit 417.8%, putting the operating margin at 27.9% on a simple calculation. The operating margin was approximately 18.7% in the same period of the previous year, so profit growth has outpaced revenue growth.

The company’s full-year forecasts are revenue of ¥2,650 million, operating profit of ¥650 million, ordinary profit of ¥410 million and net profit of ¥280 million. Progress through 3Q was 86.7%, 98.6%, 116.1% and 117.5%, respectively, with ordinary profit and net profit already exceeding their full-year forecasts. On a simple calculation, Q4 requires only ¥353 million of revenue and ¥9 million of operating profit, but for ordinary profit and net profit it is necessary to determine what expenses and tax burden will arise after the forecasts have already been exceeded.

However, full-year upside cannot be determined from cumulative progress alone. Real estate sales tend to concentrate earnings around the timing of property deliveries, and adjustments to selling prices, impairment losses on real estate for sale or borrowing-related costs in Q4 could cause profit below operating profit to fluctuate. In addition, the company did not revise its full-year earnings forecast in the latest results, so it is unclear to what extent the company had factored Q4 revenue recognition into its maintained forecasts of ¥2,650 million and ¥650 million.

At the next FY2026 full-year results, the key question will be not whether revenue exceeds ¥2,650 million, but the quality of the ¥641 million of operating profit already achieved at 3Q. If the company can separately disclose gross profit from property sales services, earnings from rental and securitization services, impairment losses on real estate for sale, extraordinary income or loss, and corporate tax expense, it will be possible to assess whether the 3Q profit lead reflects a temporary property-sale effect or an improvement in full-year earnings power.