AI and advanced products lead the recovery, while recovery in 200mm and below remains underway

As of FY2025-H1, the company had clearly indicated a two-tier market: demand for AI data centers and 300mm advanced products was firm, while customer inventory adjustments continued outside advanced products and shipments of 200mm and below wafers remained weak. By contrast, in FY2026-H1, AI-related demand led the market in volume terms, and industrial demand, where recovery had been delayed, also began to increase. Shipments of 300mm wafers increased on strong demand for advanced logic and memory for AI and data centers, indicating progress beyond the previous demand-adjustment phase.

However, the disclosures do not indicate that the entire 300mm market has recovered uniformly. The FY2026-H1 explanation stated that customers continued to normalize wafer inventories, but did not specify the degree of recovery outside advanced products. Shipments of 200mm and below wafers had remained weak because of stagnant end-product demand, but had recently reached a stage where they were increasing amid differences by customer and product. Volumes and utilization rates by application, including automotive, industrial and consumer, have not been disclosed, so it cannot be confirmed whether the increase in 200mm-and-below shipments reflects a broad demand recovery or a rebound limited to certain customers and products.

In FY2026-Q3, in addition to whether shipments for 300mm advanced logic and memory will continue to increase, it will be important to confirm whether inventory adjustments outside advanced products have ended. For 200mm and below wafers, key points will be whether the company quantifies the increase in shipment volumes and explains differences by automotive, industrial and consumer application. Industrial demand reportedly began to increase in FY2026-H1, so an explanation that the recovery continued in Q3 would indicate that the demand recovery is not dependent solely on AI-related applications.