Can the post-upward-revision operating profit be replicated in the first half?

Q1 operating profit was ¥105.0 billion (¥105,039 million), up 61.4% year on year. On an underlying basis excluding the impact of changes in the scope of consolidation, it was up 222.4% year on year, indicating a strong start on both a reported and underlying basis. The full-year operating profit forecast is ¥425.0 billion, making Q1 actual operating profit equivalent to approximately 24.7% of the full-year forecast. Compared with a simple even allocation across quarters, this is broadly in line with plan.

At the same time, company materials show that Q1 operating profit exceeded plan by ¥44.0 billion, reaching 172.2% of plan. Halving the full-year forecast gives a reference figure of ¥212.5 billion for first-half operating profit. After deducting Q1 actual operating profit, standalone Q2 operating profit would need to be approximately ¥107.5 billion. However, neither ¥212.5 billion nor ¥107.5 billion is a company target for the first half; both figures ignore seasonality and are for reference only. The evaluated information provided confirms that the first-half earnings forecast was revised, but does not specify the first-half operating profit amounts before and after the revision. At the next results announcement, the achievement rate against the first-half forecast and the segment breakdown of the variance from plan will need to be checked.

The ¥425.0 billion full-year operating profit forecast is approximately ¥2.007 billion, or about 0.5%, above the ¥422.993 billion recorded in the fiscal year ended February 2026. The upward revision to operating profit is positive, but growth from the previous fiscal year is limited. The strength of the plan depends less on operating profit itself than on how far the improvement in overseas convenience stores becomes established. The full-year ordinary profit forecast is ¥390.0 billion, the forecast for net income attributable to owners of the parent is ¥278.0 billion, and the EBITDA forecast is ¥928.0 billion.

As for net income, Q1 actual net income was ¥60.6 billion, up 23.6% year on year, while the ¥278.0 billion full-year forecast is approximately 5.0% below the ¥292.76 billion recorded in the previous fiscal year. Accordingly, the next results announcement will need to cover not only operating profit but also movements in taxes and non-operating income and expenses between ordinary profit of ¥100,735 million and net income attributable to owners of the parent of ¥60,600 million, as well as whether any extraordinary gains or losses arose in the first half.