Profit growth through the third quarter has lowered the fourth-quarter hurdle for meeting the full-year plan

Cumulative third-quarter revenue for FY2026 ending September was ¥12,181.198 million, operating profit was ¥855.249 million, ordinary profit was ¥851.772 million, and net income attributable to owners of the parent was ¥474.367 million. Year on year, revenue increased 17.5%, operating profit 18.9%, ordinary profit 19.9%, and net income 2.6%, indicating clear growth in both revenue and profit through operating profit.

The full-year forecasts are revenue of ¥15,685 million, operating profit of ¥994 million, ordinary profit of ¥1,006 million, and net income of ¥628 million. Based on a simple calculation from the cumulative third-quarter results, the fourth quarter needs to generate revenue of ¥3,503.802 million, operating profit of ¥138.751 million, ordinary profit of ¥154.228 million, and net income of ¥153.633 million. The progress rates shown in the earnings supplement were 77.7% for revenue, 86.0% for operating profit, 84.6% for ordinary profit, and 75.5% for net income. Operating profit is furthest ahead among the profit measures.

Full-year operating profit was ¥772 million last year, compared with a forecast of ¥994 million this year. With ¥855 million already secured through the third quarter, the remaining ¥139 million does not represent a high hurdle when viewed in isolation. However, the company is susceptible to demand seasonality and the impact of logistics and promotional expenses. Quarterly profit could fluctuate if advertising and promotional expenses, system-related costs, and post-M&A integration costs are concentrated in the fourth quarter.

At the next earnings announcement, it will be important to check not only whether the full-year forecast was met, but also fourth-quarter standalone revenue and operating profit, profit contributions by segment, and the assumptions underlying the full-year forecast. The third-quarter materials do not specifically disclose forecast assumptions for foreign exchange rates, raw material prices, and logistics costs, or the amount of risk incorporated into the full-year forecast. Accordingly, explanations of expenses recognized during the remaining period and one-off items will be important in assessing the likelihood of meeting the forecast.