Bitcoin Income revenue increased, but Q3 progress was below the initial plan

Bitcoin Income generated revenue of ¥1,747.3 million in Q2 of the fiscal year ending December 2026, while standalone Q3 revenue was ¥848.4 million. Cumulative Q3 revenue has reached ¥5,565 million, indicating that the business is growing in scale on a cumulative basis, although quarterly growth has not been consistent. In the next earnings disclosure, it will be necessary to determine whether the standalone Q3 decline was driven by transaction volume, option premium rates, valuation gains and losses, or market volatility.

Consolidated revenue for the interim period was ¥4,944 million and operating profit was ¥3,331 million, compared with full-year forecasts of ¥16,000 million and ¥11,400 million, respectively. Cumulative Q3 Bitcoin Income revenue of ¥5,565 million is defined differently from consolidated revenue, so business revenue cannot be compared directly with revenue in the consolidated financial statements. The next disclosure should provide a bridge showing the scope of Bitcoin Income, the Bitcoin-related business, and consolidated revenue.

Although the company said that progress to date for the first 3 quarters was below its initial plan, it has not changed the consolidated full-year earnings forecast announced on 13 August 2026. Achieving the full-year forecast is expected to require progress in fundraising, growth in BTC holdings and BTC NAV, and expansion of the Income business's assets under management. The next disclosure should therefore specify the Q4 revenue and operating profit required, the assumptions for additional fundraising, and the planned increase in assets under management as the basis for maintaining the forecast.

Past disclosures have explained that revenue includes option premiums, realised gains and losses, and period-end valuation gains and losses, but the amounts for each item have not been sufficiently broken down by quarter. The assessment of earnings repeatability will differ depending on whether the ¥848.4 million recorded in Q3 mainly comprises premiums resembling cash income or accounting revenue that includes valuation gains and losses.