Full-year forecast weighted toward the second half, with recognition of Ministry of Defense project revenue the focus for Q3

Revenue in FY2026 Q1 was ¥697.508 million, while cumulative H1 revenue was ¥1,691.084 million, up 27.4% year on year. By contrast, the full-year revenue forecast is ¥6,353 million, putting H1 progress at only 26.6%. On a simple calculation based on the H1 results, ¥4,661.916 million in revenue must be recognized in H2 to achieve the full-year forecast. The company has indicated that its plan assumes revenue and subsidies will accumulate in the second half of the fiscal year. Rather than concluding that the target will be missed based solely on the low H1 progress rate, it is necessary to check how far the plan has progressed on a cumulative Q3 basis.

The major factor driving the change in revenue is the start of service delivery for the Ministry of Defense satellite constellation project. The contract value of the Ministry of Defense project is substantial at ¥96,073.447 million, but the contract value and order backlog do not translate directly into revenue for the current period. The earnings presentation materials assume that 9 months of revenue will be recognized in the December 2026 fiscal year out of the ¥7.41 billion scheduled to be recognized for the project from April 2026 to March 2027. In Q3, it will be important to determine whether the start of service delivery, progress in delivery and acceptance, and the actual amount of revenue recognized are consistent with the assumptions underlying the full-year forecast of ¥6,353 million.

Financial disclosures through Q2 have focused on cumulative H1 results, with no standalone three-month revenue disclosed. In Q3, it will be necessary to check whether the company provides standalone revenue for July to September in addition to the nine-month cumulative figure, and which categories, data sales, solutions or other revenue, increased as a result of recognition of the Ministry of Defense project. Since the full-year earnings forecast was not revised in either Q1 or Q2, the key point in the next results will be how far revenue progress improves from 26.6% in Q3 and how much the gap narrows against the ¥4,661.916 million required in H2.