Can the decline in earnings during the strategic investment phase be absorbed by events and a recovery in usage in the second half?

Revenue for the period from January to June 2026 was ¥505.501 million, operating profit was ¥55.326 million, ordinary profit was ¥64.719 million and interim net profit attributable to owners of the parent was ¥34.546 million. The full-year forecasts remained unchanged at ¥1,176 million in revenue, ¥119 million in operating profit and ¥71 million in net profit. According to the earnings presentation, progress was 43.0% for revenue, 46.1% for operating profit and 48.4% for net profit. Since 50% of the accounting period had elapsed at the end of H1, revenue appeared slightly below the passage of time while profit was progressing relatively well, although this assessment assumes that events will be concentrated in the second half.

Progress at the end of Q1 was 21.6% for revenue, 24.7% for operating profit and 29.8% for net profit. By Q2, revenue had increased from ¥253 million to ¥505 million and operating profit from ¥29 million to ¥55 million, but H1 operating profit remained at ¥55 million against the full-year forecast of ¥119 million. Based on a simple equal quarterly allocation, the nine-month cumulative benchmarks are ¥882 million for revenue and ¥89.25 million for operating profit. We will track these levels as a mechanical reference point in FY2026-Q3.

The company positions FY2026 as the first year of its medium-term management plan and a strategic investment phase, prioritising the strengthening of the user base for existing services, its real-world business, overseas expansion and preparation for new businesses. Under this policy, the absence of a ¥72 million commissioned project for a specific customer recorded in the previous corresponding period contributed to the revenue decline, while selling, general and administrative expenses increased by ¥57.407 million due to higher personnel expenses, depreciation and advertising expenses. Accordingly, the key issue in Q3 is not simply whether the revenue plan can be maintained, but whether the seasonality of revenue and cost absorption capacity needed to reach operating profit of ¥119 million are emerging while the investment burden continues.

At the H1 earnings briefing, the company explained that progress was in line with a business plan in which real-world events are concentrated in the second half, and it also expects play counts to recover from Q3 onward. However, the disclosures through H1 did not quantify the second-half event revenue included in the full-year forecast, event-level profit margins, required monthly play counts or customer spending. In FY2026-Q3, in addition to standalone third-quarter results, it will be necessary to confirm the revenue and profit assumptions for the remaining period if the full-year forecast is maintained, the results of second-half initiatives and whether the forecast has been revised.