FY2026 revenue forecast nearly consumed in the first half; revenue composition will be the focus

Revenue for the first half from 1 January to 30 June 2026 was ¥467.370 million, equivalent to 100.1% of the company’s full-year revenue forecast of ¥467.000 million. As the first half alone has nearly consumed the full-year forecast, the most important issue at the next earnings release will be whether this reflects additional sales revenue or revenue recognition associated with a specific event, such as a development milestone. Rather than simply viewing the full-year forecast as achieved, it is necessary to confirm whether the forecast assumes new revenue will be generated from Q3 onward.

Meanwhile, the first-half operating loss was ¥621.567 million, the ordinary loss was ¥551.683 million and the interim net loss was ¥554.307 million. Progress against the full-year operating loss forecast of ¥2,207 million was 28.2%, a significant divergence from the 100.1% progress in revenue. If R&D expenses and clinical trial-related costs are planned to be concentrated in the second half, this difference can be interpreted as being in line with the plan. However, the company has not broken down the factors behind the changes in first-half performance into amounts by sales volume, unit price and expense item. In Q3, we would like to confirm cumulative operating loss, SG&A expenses, actual R&D expenses and the remaining amounts against the full-year forecasts.

In FY2025, the company recorded revenue of ¥3,026.500 million and operating profit of ¥272.156 million, with development milestone revenue making a significant contribution. However, FY2025 was a 14-month fiscal period due to a change in the fiscal year-end, so a simple year-on-year comparison with the first half of FY2026 is not possible. Current disclosures identify a single pharmaceutical business segment and do not provide a breakdown of revenue or profit by segment. Accordingly, supplementary explanation in Q3 of the sources and one-off nature of revenue will have a direct bearing on the stock’s valuation.