Revenue is materially behind plan, while profit depends on Q4 project recognition

Revenue for the nine months ended Q3 FY2026 was ¥2,681 million, representing a progress rate of only 26.0% against the full-year forecast of ¥10,300 million. This is approximately 49 percentage points below the simple elapsed-period ratio of 75% after nine months. Maintaining the full-year forecast would require recognizing ¥7,619 million in Q4 alone, equivalent to approximately 74% of full-year revenue. The Q3 results announcement contained no revision to the earnings forecast, and the company has maintained its outlook on the assumption that preparations for selling large projects will proceed.

On the earnings side, operating profit was ¥214 million, reaching 42.8% of the full-year forecast of ¥500 million. Ordinary profit was ¥150 million, or 37.5% of the ¥400 million forecast, while profit attributable to owners of the parent was a loss of ¥17 million. Achieving the full-year forecast of ¥280 million in profit would therefore require net profit of ¥297 million in Q4. Operating profit is progressing relatively faster than revenue because higher-margin revenue sources, including brokerage commissions, hotels and battery-storage-related businesses, are contributing disproportionately to profit.

Cumulative results were revenue of ¥897 million and operating profit of ¥151 million in Q1, revenue of ¥1,603 million and operating profit of ¥94 million at the interim stage, and revenue of ¥2,681 million and operating profit of ¥214 million through Q3. Although cumulative revenue through Q3 increased by ¥1,078 million from Q2, the gap with the ¥7,619 million of Q4 revenue required to meet the full-year forecast remains substantial. In the past, the timing of sales of large owned properties slipped between fiscal periods, causing significant quarterly swings in revenue and profit. This time, it will therefore be necessary to verify not only the maintenance of profit margins but also each stage of large project sales: execution of the sale contract, delivery and revenue recognition.

The Q3 financial summary does not disclose orders received, order backlog, contract values for individual large projects, scheduled sale dates or gross profit by project. At the next results announcement, it will therefore be important to confirm whether actual real estate revenue recognized in Q4 approached ¥7,619 million, whether the full-year revenue forecast was revised downward, and which segment generated the remaining ¥286 million of operating profit. In particular, if large projects in the real estate business remain unrecognized, the operating-profit progress rate alone will not be sufficient to assess the likelihood of meeting the full-year target.