FY2026 full-year earnings remain more achievable than revenue, but the cumulative Q3 profit figures require reconciliation

Q3 cumulative revenue for the fiscal year ending September 2026 was ¥11,123 million, operating profit was ¥406 million, ordinary profit was ¥402 million, and profit attributable to owners of the parent was ¥173 million. The full-year forecasts are ¥15,000 million, ¥480 million, ¥460 million, and ¥200 million, respectively. Against revenue progress of 74.2%, operating profit was approximately 84.6% achieved, ordinary profit approximately 87.4%, and net profit approximately 86.5%.

Simply deducting the cumulative results from the full-year forecasts leaves required Q4 revenue of ¥3,877 million, operating profit of ¥74 million, ordinary profit of ¥58 million, and net profit of ¥27 million. The required operating profit represents only 15.4% of the full-year forecast, leaving substantial room for achievement on the profit side alone, while 25.8% of the revenue forecast remains outstanding. In the full-year results, it will be necessary to distinguish whether any revenue shortfall was absorbed by improved margins or whether a large amount of revenue was recorded in Q4.

However, the provided interim financial information shows operating profit of ¥439 million, whereas the Q3 cumulative figure is ¥406 million, meaning that the cumulative figure declined from the previous quarter. No explanation has yet been confirmed that would allow this to be identified as a quarterly standalone figure, a restatement, a change in accounting classification, or a data inconsistency. The comparative income statement in the full-year results will be checked for continuity with actual operating profit of ¥420 million for the fiscal year ended September 2025 and the ¥480 million forecast for the fiscal year ending September 2026.

Because the Q3 results do not disclose standalone three-month revenue and operating profit, Q4 seasonality and the contribution margin cannot be estimated directly from the Q3 cumulative figures. If full-year revenue of ¥15,000 million and operating profit of ¥480 million are achieved, Q4 operating margin will be at least approximately 1.9%. If actual Q4 revenue exceeds ¥3,877 million, the required margin will be lower.

Accordingly, the key points to confirm in the full-year results are not simply whether the forecast is achieved, but ① recognition of ¥3,877 million in Q4 revenue, ② securing ¥74 million in operating profit, ③ consistency between the interim and Q3 operating profit figures, and ④ disclosure of standalone Q4 earnings and the factors behind changes. In particular, it is important to determine whether the formal full-year comparison table supports the progress assessment based on operating profit of ¥406 million.