Will same-store growth after the Seiyu integration support the FY2027 revenue growth plan?

Consolidated revenue was ¥1,347,109 million in FY2026, up 67.6% from ¥803,829 million in the previous year. Seiyu, which became a wholly owned subsidiary in July 2025, was the main driver of the increase. The addition of 245 Seiyu stores to the consolidated group means that the effects of Trial's own store openings and the expansion of the consolidation scope through the acquisition are included in the same figures. The group had 621 stores at the end of FY2026, an increase of 269 from the end of the previous fiscal year, but 245 of these stores were added through Seiyu's consolidation. This needs to be assessed separately from growth driven by ordinary new-store openings.

The company's FY2027 plan calls for revenue of ¥1,458,200 million and operating profit of ¥39,000 million, representing expected year-on-year growth of 8.2% and 28.4%, respectively. As the sharp increase in revenue scale from the acquisition runs its course, the next phase of revenue growth will depend on the respective contributions from Trial's existing stores, Seiyu's existing stores and new-store openings. At the FY2026 earnings briefing, the company said that Trial's same-store sales growth was 2.1% and that same-store customer traffic in 4Q had improved to around flat year on year. Seiyu, meanwhile, reportedly recorded positive year-on-year same-store sales for 10 consecutive months, while customer traffic improved to more than 10% above the previous year.

In the latest monthly results, Trial's same-store sales in September 2026 rose 3.5% year on year, customer traffic increased 0.8% and average spend per customer rose 2.8%. Seiyu recorded same-store sales growth of 7.0%, customer traffic growth of 6.9% and a 0.2% increase in average spend per customer. The composition of growth differs between the two companies. Higher average spend made a relatively larger contribution at Trial, while the recovery in customer traffic is driving Seiyu's sales growth. In FY2027-Q1, it will therefore be important to review not only consolidated revenue but also customer traffic and average spend per customer separately for the two companies.

At the next earnings announcement, the focus will be on progress in Q1 against the FY2027 revenue plan of ¥1,458,200 million, taking seasonality into account, as well as whether the company discloses same-store sales, customer traffic, average spend per customer and total-store sales separately for Trial and Seiyu. In particular, we want to determine whether Seiyu's improvement in customer traffic has continued for multiple months rather than being limited to temporary pricing measures or event effects, and whether sales from new-store openings are masking the performance of existing stores.