Downside risk to the domestic economy from global economic uncertainty and yen appreciation

「During the interim consolidated accounting period, Japan's economy continued to recover moderately, but the outlook remained uncertain because of continued price increases, persistently high energy prices, fluctuations in interest rates and foreign exchange rates, risks from abnormal weather and natural disasters, and uncertainty in the international situation.」

「当第１四半期連結累計期間（2026年４月１日～2026年６月30日）におけるわが国経済は、雇用・所得環境の改善を背景に持ち直しの動きが見られた一方で、継続的な物価上昇や為替相場の変動、中東地域を巡る情勢不安による影響懸念などから、依然として先行き不透明な状況が続きました。」

「Looking ahead, personal consumption is expected to recover against a backdrop of improving employment and income conditions, supporting a recovery in economic and social activity. However, in addition to continued price increases, persistently high energy prices resulting from the situation in the Middle East and the impact of foreign exchange movements mean that the economic environment is expected to enter a phase requiring caution.」

「一方で、中東情勢の影響等に伴うエネルギー価格の高止まりや、物価上昇の長期化に伴う生活防衛意識の高まりから、個人消費は引き続き選別的な動きが続きました。」

「During the interim consolidated accounting period from 1 April 2025 to 30 September 2025, Japan's economy continued to recover moderately, although some impact from US trade policy was evident. Improvements in employment and income conditions and an increase in visitors to Japan are expected to continue supporting the recovery, but the impact of continued price increases on personal consumption and other factors pose downside risks to the economy.」

「Economic and social activity showed signs of recovery, supported by improving employment and income conditions and a record number of visitors to Japan. On the other hand, the economic outlook remained uncertain because of continued price increases, downside risk to overseas economies and policy developments in the United States.」

「During the interim consolidated accounting period, economic and social activity showed signs of recovery, supported by improving income and employment conditions and record-high numbers of visitors to Japan. On the other hand, concerns about a slowdown in personal consumption remained because real wages had not established a positive trend amid downside risk to overseas economies and continued price increases. The outlook therefore remained uncertain.」

「During the fiscal year, Japan's economy moved toward normalization of economic and social activity, with domestic and inbound demand recovering gradually following the reclassification of COVID-19 as a Class 5 disease. On the other hand, the economic outlook remained uncertain because of continued price increases resulting from soaring resource prices, concerns about the Chinese economy, and a slower recovery in overseas economies.」

「On the other hand, the economic outlook remained uncertain because of continued price increases resulting from soaring resource prices, concerns about the Chinese economy, and a slower recovery in overseas economies.」

「On the other hand, the economic outlook remained uncertain because of continued price increases resulting from soaring resource prices and downside risk to overseas economies associated with monetary tightening.」

「With COVID-19 reclassified as a Class 5 disease, signs of a gradual resumption of economic and social activity were seen as restrictions on activity were eased and domestic and international human mobility recovered. However, the economic outlook remained extremely uncertain because of rising prices caused by soaring raw material and energy prices.」

「In Japan, signs of a gradual resumption of economic and social activity were seen as restrictions on activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic were eased. However, the economic outlook was expected to remain uncertain because of geopolitical risks arising from the situation in Ukraine and other factors, as well as soaring energy and raw material prices.」

「Although the impact of the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic continued, signs of economic activity moving toward normalization were seen as restrictions on activity were eased. However, the economic outlook remained extremely uncertain because of soaring raw material and energy prices and rising prices resulting from the rapid depreciation of the yen.」

「While the impact of the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic continued, signs of economic activity moving toward normalization were seen as restrictions on activity were eased. However, the economic outlook remained extremely uncertain because of soaring raw material and crude oil prices and rising prices resulting from the rapid depreciation of the yen.」

「During the first quarter of the fiscal year ending June 2022 (1 April 2022 to 30 June 2022), Japan's economy showed signs of moving toward normalization as restrictions on activity were eased, even as the impact of the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic continued. However, the outlook remained extremely uncertain because of soaring raw material and crude oil prices caused by the prolonged situation in Ukraine and rising prices resulting from the rapid depreciation of the yen.」

「In addition to the lack of visibility on an end to COVID-19 and concerns that it could be prolonged, geopolitical risks arising from the situation in Ukraine and soaring energy and raw material prices remained concerns. The outlook was expected to remain uncertain.」

「During the first 9 months of the fiscal year ending December 2021 (1 April 2021 to 31 December 2021), expectations had been for an economic recovery after all states of emergency and priority preventive measures to prevent the spread of disease related to COVID-19 were lifted on 30 September. However, concerns about the spread of infections caused by new variants increased, and the outlook for the economy remained uncertain.」

「During the first 6 months of the fiscal year ending September 2021 (1 April 2021 to 30 September 2021), Japan's economy was affected by the reissuance of a state of emergency and the intermittent implementation of priority preventive measures to prevent the spread of disease as COVID-19 infections expanded. Although the lifting of these measures was expected to allow economic activity and other activities to resume, concerns about a resurgence of infections remained unresolved and the outlook continued to be uncertain.」

「During the first quarter of the fiscal year ending June 2021 (1 April 2021 to 30 June 2021), Japan's economy was adversely affected by the reissuance of states of emergency in some regions and the implementation of priority preventive measures to prevent the spread of disease as COVID-19 infections expanded, resulting in weak consumption. Although vaccinations began in earnest and their effects were anticipated, an end to the pandemic was still not in sight and the outlook remained uncertain.」

「During the fiscal year, Japan's economy was affected by the deterioration in global economic conditions resulting from restrictions on activity in various countries following the global spread of COVID-19. In Japan, the spread of infections also restricted social and economic activity, worsening corporate earnings and employment conditions and weakening personal consumption, resulting in an extremely challenging situation. The outlook was expected to remain extremely uncertain because of the resurgence of COVID-19, US-China trade friction and risks of pressure on government finances in various countries.」

「During the first 9 months of the fiscal year ending December 2020 (1 April 2020 to 31 December 2020), Japan's economy remained extremely challenging, affected by the deterioration in global economic conditions resulting from restrictions on activity in various countries following the second and third waves of COVID-19 after the first wave and the global spread of infections, as well as weaker domestic personal consumption and worsening corporate earnings and employment conditions. Although expectations for an end to the pandemic were growing with the start of COVID-19 vaccinations, the outlook was expected to remain extremely uncertain because of the risk of further spread of infections, including mutant strains, and pressure on government finances in various countries.」

「Although the state of emergency was lifted in late May, the economy remained uncertain amid the resurgence of infections and the July 2020 heavy-rain disaster in Japan. A considerable amount of time was expected to be required for an economic recovery.」

「During the first quarter of the fiscal year ending June 2020 (1 April 2020 to 30 June 2020), Japan's economy was affected by a rapid deterioration in global economic conditions resulting from restrictions on activity imposed by countries in response to the global spread of COVID-19. In Japan, social and economic activity was also severely restricted following the government's declaration of a state of emergency in April, resulting in an extremely challenging situation marked by a rapid deterioration in economic conditions, including worsening employment and weaker consumer sentiment.」

「During the first 9 months of the fiscal year, Japan's economy remained supported by firm employment conditions, but it faced the risk of a global economic slowdown amid growing anxiety over overseas political and economic conditions caused by US-China trade friction, the UK's withdrawal from the EU and geopolitical risks. Consumer sentiment also deteriorated because of repeated natural disasters in Japan and the consumption tax increase, and the outlook remained uncertain.」

「During the first 6 months of the fiscal year ending September 2019 (1 April 2019 to 30 September 2019), Japan's economy faced the risk of a global economic slowdown amid growing anxiety over overseas political and economic conditions caused by escalating US-China trade friction, the prolonged issue of the UK's withdrawal from the EU and geopolitical risks. In Japan, consumers' entrenched preference for saving strengthened further because of concerns about rising prices for daily necessities related to post-retirement funding and the consumption tax increase, and personal consumption continued to lack momentum. The outlook therefore remained uncertain.」

「During the first quarter of the fiscal year ending June 2019 (1 April 2019 to 30 June 2019), Japan's economy remained generally firm, including in employment. However, overseas political and economic factors, including US-China trade friction, the UK's withdrawal from the EU and escalating tensions in Iran and the Middle East, showed signs of disrupting economic trends. In Japan, in addition to concerns about a slowdown in global trade, corporate earnings were affected by higher logistics and labor costs, while rising prices following the consumption tax increase and weakening consumer trends reflecting concerns about post-retirement living expenses increased uncertainty about the economic outlook.」

「During the fiscal year from 1 April 2018 to 31 March 2019, Japan's economy continued to recover moderately against a backdrop of improving corporate earnings and other factors. However, in addition to overseas political and economic uncertainty, including the prolonged US-China trade friction and the UK's withdrawal from the EU, the economy was affected by successive natural disasters and adverse weather in Japan, higher logistics and labor costs, and weakening consumer trends caused by rising prices. As a result, uncertainty about the economic outlook increased further.」

「During the first 9 months of the fiscal year ending March 2019 (1 April 2018 to 31 December 2018), Japan's economy continued to recover moderately against a backdrop of improving corporate earnings and employment conditions. However, in addition to overseas political and economic uncertainty, including US-China trade friction and the UK's withdrawal from the EU, the economy was affected by successive natural disasters and adverse weather in Japan, higher logistics costs and weakening consumption trends. As a result, uncertainty about the economic outlook increased further.」

「In addition to uncertainty in overseas political and economic conditions, including US-China trade friction, volatility in international financial markets, high crude oil prices and geopolitical risks, personal consumption lacked strength because of the impact of successive natural disasters in Japan and consumers' persistent preference for saving in response to rising prices. The outlook for the economic environment therefore remained uncertain.」

「In addition to global economic uncertainty, including concerns about escalating trade friction, consumers' preference for saving remained strong, personal consumption lacked strength, and the outlook for the economic environment remained uncertain.」

「During the fiscal year, Japan's economy continued to recover moderately, with employment conditions improving against a backdrop of improving corporate earnings and other factors. However, amid uncertainty in global politics and the global economy, concerns about rising prices and sluggish growth in real income, consumers' preference for saving remained strong, personal consumption lacked strength, and the outlook for the economic environment remained uncertain.」

「On the other hand, concerns remained, including consumers' continued preference for saving, rising prices, and uncertainty surrounding overseas economies and political conditions. The outlook therefore remained uncertain.」

「However, personal consumption remained sluggish because of consumers' defensive attitudes toward their livelihoods and preference for saving. In addition to uncertainty over political and economic policy developments in Europe, the United States and emerging markets, rising geopolitical risks in East Asia meant that the outlook remained uncertain.」

「Personal consumption remained sluggish. In addition, the outlook remained uncertain because of concerns about policies under the new US administration, concerns over an economic slowdown in emerging markets, and increasing uncertainty in overseas economies, including heightened geopolitical risks.」

「During the fiscal year, Japan's economy saw improving employment and income conditions, but signs of a pause emerged in the recovery of corporate earnings and capital investment. In addition to concerns about developments in European politics, emerging market economies and the policies of the new US administration, concerns about inflationary pressures also weighed on the economy. Consumer sentiment failed to improve, and personal consumption remained weak. The outlook for the economic environment therefore remained uncertain.」

「During the second quarter of the fiscal year ending September 2016 (1 April 2016 to 30 September 2016), Japan's economy showed signs of recovery in employment and other areas, but the improvement in corporate earnings slowed, partly owing to the burden of yen appreciation, leaving the economic recovery stalled. Consumer sentiment also deteriorated amid concerns about rising prices and downside risks to the economy, while uncertainty about the outlook continued because of concerns over an economic slowdown in emerging markets and Europe.」

「In addition, downside risk to the domestic economy has emerged as global economic uncertainty increases, including an economic slowdown in emerging markets, particularly China, and growing instability in the European economy, while the yen appreciates rapidly. The outlook therefore remains uncertain.」