Risk of economic stagnation due to the situation in Ukraine, yen depreciation and rising prices

「イラン情勢の影響による原油由来の原材料や資材の供給制約・価格上昇等で物価が上昇し、政府の物価抑制政策で実質賃金はプラスに作用したものの、消費者に節約志向が高まり景気の回復は進みませんでした。」

「During the interim consolidated accounting period, Japan's economy saw corporate performance progress steadily, supported by rising demand for AI and related semiconductors and a record-weak yen, amid diminishing prospects for a resolution to the situation in Iran and continued confusion over US trade policy. Although wage increases grew to what could be called a historic level, prices rose due to supply constraints and price increases for crude oil-based raw materials and supplies resulting from the situation in Iran. While the government's policies to curb inflation had a positive effect on real wages, consumers became more inclined to economize, and the economic recovery did not advance.」

「中東情勢の先行きが見通しにくい状況の中、ＡＩとそれに関連する半導体等の需要増加や記録的な円安等を追い風に企業業績が順調に推移いたしました。一方、中東情勢の影響による原油由来の原材料や資材の供給制約・価格上昇等で物価が上昇し、政府の物価抑制政策で実質賃金はプラスになったものの、賃上げの効果は限定的で消費者マインドを改善させるまでには至らず、景気の回復は実感できませんでした。」

「During the fiscal year, Japan's economy saw continued yen depreciation and sustained high inbound demand, while corporate performance remained firm, supported by yen depreciation and only limited impact from U.S. tariff policy. Wages rose substantially against the backdrop of solid corporate performance, but prices of daily necessities such as rice remained high. As crude oil prices surged amid worsening tensions in the Middle East and further price increases became a concern, private consumption stagnated and the economic recovery as a whole did not progress.」

「During the interim consolidated accounting period, Japan's economy saw continued yen depreciation and sustained high inbound demand, but the impact of U.S. tariff policy gradually began to emerge in previously solid corporate performance supported by yen depreciation, with signs of a slowdown. Although wages rose substantially, they failed to keep pace with the sharp increase in prices. As consumer spending on daily necessities such as rice increased, private consumption stagnated and the economic recovery as a whole did not progress.」

「Meanwhile, import prices rose due to the war and yen depreciation, while food prices rose because of climate change. As prices surged faster than wages, consumers became more inclined to economize, particularly on daily necessities, private consumption stagnated, and the economic recovery showed weakness.」

「During the interim consolidated accounting period, Japan's economy benefited from solid corporate performance supported by yen depreciation, rising wages and sustained high inbound demand, but real wage growth did not necessarily keep pace with the surge in prices. Consumers became more inclined to economize, private consumption stagnated, and the economic recovery showed weakness.」

「Meanwhile, the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, heightened tensions in the Middle East, persistent yen depreciation and rising prices, including a decline in real wages, led to weaker private consumption and growing uncertainty over the economic recovery.」

「During the third quarter of the fiscal year, Japan's economy saw economic and social activity normalize following the reclassification of COVID-19 as a Category V infectious disease, but concerns arose over the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and the normalization of yen depreciation. Although companies made progress in passing on higher costs, uncertainty spread over the recovery in private consumption as wage growth failed to keep pace with price increases.」

「The Russia-Ukraine war continued, the yen depreciated, and resource, energy and food prices rose. As wage growth failed to keep pace with price increases, uncertainty began to spread over the recovery in private consumption.」

「The prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, labor shortages, continued yen depreciation, and rising resource, energy and food prices persisted, and the economy did not achieve a full-fledged recovery.」

「As social and economic activity normalized, prices of daily necessities, including gasoline, utility costs and food, rose one after another due to the worsening situation in Ukraine and the sharp depreciation of the yen. Consumers' perceived inflation increased, and the economic recovery lacked strength.」

「However, the yen depreciated sharply due to the worsening situation in Ukraine and the impact of monetary tightening by the United States and European countries to curb inflation. As successive price increases for daily necessities, including gasoline, electricity and food, raised consumers' perceived inflation, the economic recovery lacked momentum and uncertainty continued amid concerns about economic stagnation.」

「The yen depreciated sharply due to the worsening situation in Ukraine and the impact of monetary tightening by the United States and European countries to curb inflation. As prices of daily necessities, including gasoline, electricity and food, rose one after another, consumers' perceived inflation increased, the economic recovery lacked momentum, and uncertainty over the outlook continued amid concerns about economic stagnation.」