Downside risks to the economy from US-China trade issues and rising crude oil prices
First written in FY2019-Q2. 4 of 10 entries say "Worsened", first in FY2019. Latest entry: FY2026-H1.
The Oita Bank moved to the "Worse" side of this theme in 2019, 3 years before the typical company in this theme (2022).
The whole theme swung hardest in 2020: 26 of 37 companies on the "Worse" side.
2 other companies' latest entry also says "Materialised".
- FY2026-H1MaterialisedAnnual report
「In the first half of fiscal 2025, the domestic economy recovered moderately overall, as personal consumption remained firm, although some areas showed weakness due to the impact of US tariffs.」
The company stated that the impact of US tariffs had materialized as weakness in some areas of the domestic economy. The prefectural economy was also described as weakening due to a decline in housing starts and other factors. - FY2025-H1Impact of rising prices and stagnation in the Chinese economy, and weakness in personal consumption in the prefectureAnnual report
「In the first half of fiscal 2024, the domestic economy generally showed signs of recovery, despite the effects of rising prices and economic stagnation in China and elsewhere, as personal consumption remained firm. The prefectural economy weakened due to stagnation in personal consumption and other factors.」
The company newly identified the effects of rising prices and economic stagnation in China and elsewhere as external-environment factors, and stated that the prefectural economy weakened due to stagnation in personal consumption. Meanwhile, the domestic economy recovered, and tourism in the prefecture recovered as the number of inbound visitors increased. - FY2024Weakening prefectural economy and tourism recoveryAnnual report
「The prefectural economy weakened as economic activity stagnated due to sluggish production activity and other factors. Tourism recovered as the number of domestic and inbound visitors increased.」
The company stated that the prefectural economy weakened against a backdrop of production activity, rising prices and other factors, while tourism recovered as the number of domestic and inbound visitors increased. - FY2024-Q2Domestic economic recovery and continuing external downward pressuresAnnual report
「In the first half of fiscal 2023, the domestic economy recovered moderately despite some impact from higher resource prices, as personal consumption recovered following the reclassification of COVID-19 as a Class 5 disease. Production activity remained broadly flat due to the slowdown in overseas economies,」
The company stated that the domestic economy recovered moderately as personal consumption recovered following the reclassification of COVID-19 as a Class 5 disease, although downward pressures from high resource prices and slowing overseas economies remained. - FY2023RestatedAnnual report
「Although the domestic economy in fiscal 2022 was subject to downward pressure from the weaker yen and higher raw material prices, it was recovering as a trend due to the easing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resumption of economic activity.」
The company recognized downside risks from yen depreciation and rising raw material prices, while also noting a recovery supported by the easing of the pandemic’s impact and the resumption of economic activity. - FY2023-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「In the first half of fiscal 2022, the domestic economy remained under downward pressure from the rapid depreciation of the yen and rising raw material prices, but was generally recovering as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic eased.」
In addition to the previous slowdown in overseas economies and other factors, the company explicitly identified the rapid depreciation of the yen and rising raw material prices as downward pressure on the domestic economy. It also noted the need to monitor higher prices in the prefecture resulting from rising resource prices and yen depreciation. - FY2020WorsenedAnnual report
「In fiscal 2019, the domestic economy continued to show weakness in exports and production due to the slowdown in overseas economies and other factors, but overall remained on a moderate recovery path, supported by improvements in employment and income.」
The company stated that the slowdown in overseas economies had materialized in the domestic economic environment as weakness in exports and production. - FY2020-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「However, downside risks surrounding overseas economies, including US protectionist policies and the outlook for the Chinese economy, are substantial, and it is necessary to continue closely monitoring developments.」
The company explicitly stated that downside risks to overseas economies from US protectionist policies and the outlook for the Chinese economy are substantial. - FY2019WorsenedAnnual report
「Close attention is required to the effects of issues such as trade tensions between the United States and China, the outlook for the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union (EU), and the consumption tax increase.」
In addition to the existing US-China trade tensions and other issues, the company explicitly identified the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU and the consumption tax increase as external-environment risks for the outlook. - FY2019-Q2First statedAnnual report
「The economy is expected to remain on a moderate recovery path, but close attention is required to the effects of issues such as trade tensions between the United States and China and rising crude oil prices.」
The company identified the effects of US-China trade tensions and rising crude oil prices on the outlook for the domestic economy as new external-environment risks.