Global Economic Uncertainty

「International conditions continue to change daily, amid the US attack on Iran, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the risk of a Taiwan contingency resulting from deteriorating bilateral relations between the United States and China.」

「Although the situation requires continued careful assessment of the impact of increasingly severe geopolitical risks, including in the Middle East, on financial markets and the consumer environment, we will steadily implement measures to achieve the plan.」

「Meanwhile, amid trade friction stemming from US tariff policy and geopolitical risks in the Middle East and elsewhere, it remains difficult to take an optimistic view of the potential impact on financial markets, including interest rates, foreign exchange and share prices, and on the economy, including prices, consumption and inbound demand.」

「International conditions continue to change daily, amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the risk of a Taiwan contingency resulting from deteriorating bilateral relations between the United States and China. ... Global stock markets have fallen simultaneously, triggered by reciprocal tariffs, and the risk of declining consumer demand has increased.」

「Amid concerns over a slowdown in the US economy, the Bank of Japan implemented an additional rate hike at the end of July. The resulting narrowing of the interest rate differential caused the yen to appreciate sharply, while share prices also fluctuated sharply, leaving financial markets unstable.」

「However, real wages continue to decline as wage growth fails to keep pace with rising prices, and the outlook remains uncertain amid the risk of a slowdown in personal consumption as households become more focused on protecting their finances.」

「However, household burdens have increased as prices have risen due to soaring resource and raw material costs and the weaker yen. Consumption aimed at protecting household finances is expected to become increasingly pronounced, and uncertainty over the outlook is continuing.」

「However, with the spread of the Omicron variant, the flow of people and personal consumption have slowed since the beginning of the year, and the impact of COVID-19 is still expected to take time to subside. In addition, rising inflationary pressure from soaring crude oil prices and increasing tensions surrounding Ukraine mean that uncertainty over the outlook is continuing.」

「Meanwhile, the number of infections fell sharply as vaccinations progressed, and the state of emergency was lifted at the end of September. As economic activity picked up, personal consumption also showed signs of recovery. However, with the emergence of new variants, the outlook for the COVID-19 impact to subside remains uncertain.」

「The repeated declarations of a state of emergency and the increase in infections since July have continued to negatively affect consumer sentiment.」

「The business was seriously affected by the resurgence of COVID-19. In January of this year, a second state of emergency was declared in 11 prefectures and metropolitan areas, and a third state of emergency was declared in April. The negative impact on the retail industry from people’s tendency to refrain from going out is expected to be prolonged.」

「Vaccinations have begun in Japan, following countries in Europe and the United States, and signs of progress toward containing the pandemic can be seen. However, there is still no clear prospect for when infections will subside. Uncertainty over the outlook for the global economy remains strong, and the negative impact on corporate earnings is expected to be prolonged as people continue to restrain consumption and investment because of rising unemployment and stagnant incomes.」

「The number of new infections in Japan has entered a phase described as a third wave, and there is no clear prospect for when the pandemic will subside. In addition, infections are spreading again in Europe and the United States, uncertainty over the outlook for the global economy remains strong, and the negative impact on corporate earnings is expected to be prolonged.」

「With the number of new infections remaining high and no clear prospect for when the pandemic will subside, uncertainty over the outlook for the global economy as a whole remains strong, and the negative impact on corporate earnings is expected to be prolonged.」

「The economy suffered a serious impact from the spread of COVID-19. Personal consumption fell sharply, particularly against the backdrop of requests for business closures and increasingly stringent calls for people to refrain from going out following the declaration of a state of emergency. In addition, the decline in global demand made a deterioration in corporate earnings unavoidable. With no clear prospect for when the pandemic will subside, uncertainty over the outlook for the global and Japanese economies remains strong, and concerns remain that the negative impact on corporate earnings will be prolonged.」

「In particular, since the October consumption tax rate increase, personal consumption has remained weak due to the unwinding of rush demand before the tax increase and the effects of natural disasters such as typhoons. Together with a slowdown in capital investment, this has raised concerns that the domestic economy will remain in a low-growth phase.」

「However, consumer sentiment has deteriorated amid the frequent occurrence of natural disasters in various regions and increasing uncertainty over the outlook for the global economy due to intensifying US-China trade friction. In addition, with the risk of a decline in consumption following the October consumption tax rate increase, the domestic economy is increasingly likely to enter a recessionary phase.」

「Although the economy expanded gradually, uncertainty over the outlook for the domestic economy has increased further amid slower capital investment and exports, global trade friction, the resulting instability in stock markets, and the psychological impact of the consumption tax rate increase.」

「Although a gradual economic recovery is expected to continue, the outlook cannot be viewed optimistically amid intensifying global trade friction, turmoil in the stock market, and psychological factors related to the consumption tax rate increase.」

「Although a gradual recovery in personal consumption is expected to continue, the outlook requires close monitoring amid concerns over intensifying global trade friction and the prolonged effects of natural disasters.」

「However, amid escalating US-China trade friction, concerns over an economic slowdown in Europe, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the outlook requires close monitoring.」

「Meanwhile, the effects of monetary policy normalization in Europe and the United States, geopolitical risks in Asia, and increasingly unstable stock markets mean that the outlook remains unpredictable.」

「Meanwhile, the effects of monetary policy normalization in Europe and the United States and the increasingly prominent geopolitical risks in Asia mean that the outlook for future earnings remains unpredictable.」

「Meanwhile, monetary policy in Europe and the United States is moving from ultraloose settings toward normalization and tighter conditions, while the emergence of geopolitical risks in Asia is also affecting the outlook. Economic conditions therefore remain uncertain.」

「However, the impact of political risks in Europe and the United States and geopolitical risks in Asia on economic conditions is also uncertain, and the outlook remains far from predictable.」

「Although signs of improvement have emerged in corporate earnings and domestic consumption since November, supported by the weaker yen and rising share prices, the outlook remains uncertain and unpredictable.」

「Going forward, the outlook for the economy remains uncertain and unpredictable, amid concerns over the impact on the global and Japanese economies of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, which was approved in a referendum.」

「However, uncertainty surrounding the global economy has increased, and the outlook remains unpredictable.」