Semiconductor Market Cyclicality and Risk of Significant Contraction
First written in FY2016. 17 of 34 entries say "Restated". Latest entry: 2026-04-30.
Tokyo Electron Limited moved to the "Worse" side of this theme in 2026, 9 years after the typical company in this theme (2017).
The whole theme swung hardest in 2023: 9 of 15 companies on the "Worse" side.
3 other companies' latest entry also says "Worsened".
- 2026-04-30WorsenedEarnings
「In recent years, the semiconductor market has experienced increasingly sharp short-term changes in supply-demand balances and semiconductor prices amid rapid growth.」
The description that short-term supply-demand balances and price fluctuations in the semiconductor market have become increasingly pronounced strengthens the expression of market volatility risk. - FY2026-H1RestatedAnnual report
「During the interim consolidated accounting period, there were no material changes in the occurrence of the principal risks that management recognizes as potentially having a significant impact on the financial position, operating results or cash flows of the Group, among the matters concerning the business, accounting and other matters described in this semiannual report, nor in the section titled “Business and Other Risks” in the annual securities report for the previous fiscal year.」
The company states that there have been no material changes in its principal business and other risks, including business cycles and supply-demand fluctuations in the semiconductor market. - FY2025Presents both market growth driven by generative AI and other factors and volatility risk.Annual report
「The semiconductor market is expected to achieve further growth over the medium to long term as technological innovation continues, amid the expansion of applications for information and communications technologies such as IoT, AI and 5G, progress in digital transformation, and an accelerating transition to a data-driven society in response to sustainability transformation (SX). However, in the short term, market size may fluctuate as the supply-demand balance is disrupted by trends in the global economy, demand for end products, trade and tariff policies, geopolitical factors and other developments.」
The company continues to identify short-term market volatility risk arising from supply-demand and geopolitical factors, while adding generative AI, DX and SX as drivers of medium- to long-term growth. - FY2025-H1Progress from market adjustment to recovery.Annual report
「Signs of recovery were also seen in PCs and smartphones. As a result, the supply-demand balance for semiconductor devices improved, and utilization rates at production lines also showed signs of recovery.」
The company notes signs of recovery in demand for PCs and smartphones, improving supply-demand conditions for semiconductor devices and a recovery trend in production-line utilization, describing continued progress toward recovery following the market adjustment. - FY2024Notes a recovery trend following the market adjustment.Annual report
「In addition to steady progress in inventory adjustments by semiconductor manufacturers and the emergence of new applications such as generative AI, accelerated capital expenditure by local Chinese customers seeking to increase semiconductor self-sufficiency brought the semiconductor manufacturing equipment market to a bottom, after which it shifted to a recovery trend in the second half of the fiscal year.」
The company describes a shift from bottoming out to a recovery trend, driven not only by the continuation of the market adjustment but also by inventory adjustments, generative AI and investment by local Chinese customers. - FY2024-Q3Notes signs that the adjustment phase is bottoming out.Annual report
「Under these circumstances, capital expenditure for semiconductor manufacturing equipment, which had been undergoing an adjustment phase, showed signs of bottoming out during the third quarter of the fiscal year-to-date period. Although capital expenditure for semiconductors used in memory and advanced logic and foundry applications was generally restrained, inquiries for equipment used in advanced packaging for generative AI applications increased. In addition, capital expenditure in China for mature technology generations used in IoT, automotive and industrial applications, aimed at increasing semiconductor self-sufficiency, remained firm, continuing the trend from the previous fiscal year.」
While restraint on investment in memory and advanced logic and foundry applications continued, the company noted signs that capital expenditure for semiconductor manufacturing equipment was bottoming out, along with increased inquiries for advanced packaging for generative AI applications and firm investment in mature technology generations in China. - FY2024-Q2Also notes the strength of investment in mature technology generations.Annual report
「Under these circumstances, during the second quarter of the fiscal year-to-date period, semiconductor memory manufacturers curbed production and adjusted capital expenditure as demand for end products such as PCs and smartphones reached a plateau and semiconductor memory inventories were adjusted. Capital expenditure on semiconductors for advanced logic and foundry applications was also in a temporary adjustment phase, as was memory-related investment. However, capital expenditure for mature technology generations, mainly for automotive, industrial and IoT applications, remained firm, continuing the trend from the previous fiscal year against a backdrop of the digitalization of society.」
The company states that, while capital expenditure for semiconductor memory and advanced logic and foundry applications is undergoing adjustment, investment in mature technology generations, mainly for automotive, industrial and IoT applications, remains firm. It presents both the areas subject to market adjustment and the areas that remain strong. - FY2024-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「Under these circumstances, during the first quarter of the fiscal year-to-date period, semiconductor memory manufacturers curbed production and adjusted capital expenditure as demand for end products such as PCs and smartphones reached a plateau and semiconductor memory inventories were adjusted. Capital expenditure on semiconductors for advanced logic and foundry applications was also in a temporary adjustment phase, as was memory-related investment. However, capital expenditure for automotive and industrial applications remained firm, continuing the trend from the previous fiscal year against a backdrop of the digitalization of society.」
In addition to production cuts and capital expenditure adjustments for memory applications, investment in advanced logic and foundry applications also entered a temporary adjustment phase, broadening the scope of the adjustment. Meanwhile, investment for automotive and industrial applications remained firm. - FY2023-Q3Notes the adjustment resulting from the postponement of memory-related investment.Annual report
「Capital expenditure for NAND flash memory remained at a high level against a backdrop of demand associated with higher layer counts. However, in the second half of the fiscal year, investment was postponed due to inventory adjustments, as was the case with capital expenditure for DRAM.」
Regarding business cycles and supply-demand fluctuations in the semiconductor market, the company states that capital expenditure was postponed due to inventory adjustments for DRAM and NAND flash memory. Meanwhile, investment in logic and foundry applications continues across a broad range of technology generations. - FY2023-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「During the first 2 quarters of the current fiscal year, there were no new events among the matters relating to the business and accounting conditions described in this quarterly report that could have a material impact on investors' decisions, nor any material changes to the “Business and Other Risks” described in the annual securities report for the previous fiscal year.」
The company states that there have been no material changes to its business and other risks, including semiconductor market cyclicality and supply-demand fluctuations. - FY2023-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「During the first quarter of the current fiscal year, there were no new events among the matters relating to the business and accounting conditions described in this quarterly report that could have a material impact on investors' decisions, nor any material changes to the “Business and Other Risks” described in the annual securities report for the previous fiscal year.」
The company states that there have been no material changes to its business and other risks, including semiconductor market cyclicality and supply-demand fluctuations. - FY2022Specific measures to address market volatilityAnnual report
「To address such market fluctuations, our group regularly reviews market conditions and order trends at important meetings, including meetings of the Board of Directors. By keeping abreast of the latest market trends, we work to optimize capital investment and plans for personnel and inventories.」
In response to market volatility risk, the company explicitly states that it conducts regular reviews by the Board of Directors and other bodies and optimizes capital expenditure, staffing and inventory plans. - FY2022-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「During the first 3 quarters of the current fiscal year, there were no new events among the matters relating to the business and accounting conditions described in this quarterly report that could have a material impact on investors' decisions, nor any material changes to the “Business and Other Risks” described in the annual securities report for the previous fiscal year.」
The company states that there have been no material changes to its business and other risks, including semiconductor market cyclicality and supply-demand fluctuations. - FY2022-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「During the first 2 quarters of the current fiscal year, there were no new events among the matters relating to the business and accounting conditions described in this quarterly report that could have a material impact on investors' decisions, nor any material changes to the “Business and Other Risks” described in the annual securities report for the previous fiscal year.」
The company states that there have been no material changes to its business and other risks, including semiconductor market cyclicality and supply-demand fluctuations. - FY2022-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「During the first quarter of the current fiscal year, there were no new events among the matters relating to the business and accounting conditions described in this quarterly report that could have a material impact on investors' decisions, nor any material changes to the “Business and Other Risks” described in the annual securities report for the previous fiscal year.」
The company states that there have been no material changes to its business and other risks, including semiconductor market cyclicality and supply-demand fluctuations. - FY2021Greater specificity regarding market volatility drivers and responsesAnnual report
「However, the supply-demand balance may deteriorate and market size may fluctuate significantly in the short term due to global economic trends, demand for end products, trade and tariff policies, and geopolitical factors. If the semiconductor market were to contract sharply, excess production, rising inventories of unsold products, and bad debt losses caused by deterioration in customers' financial condition could affect our group's performance. Conversely, if we were unable to respond to a sharp increase in demand, we could be unable to supply products to customers in a timely manner, resulting in lost opportunities and potentially affecting performance.」
The company has made the risk scope more specific by adding trade and tariff policies, geopolitical factors, and supply shortages and lost opportunities caused by sharp increases in demand to the conventional risks of cyclicality and supply-demand fluctuations. - FY2021-Q3The semiconductor manufacturing equipment market remains on an expansionary trend.Annual report
「During the first 3 quarters of the current fiscal year, the global economy continued to be affected by the spread of COVID-19, as in the second quarter. However, within the electronics industry in which our group participates, strong semiconductor demand driven by the expanding range of applications for information and communications technologies such as IoT, AI and 5G has kept the semiconductor manufacturing equipment market on an expansionary trend.」
The company states that, although the impact of COVID-19 continues, the semiconductor manufacturing equipment market remains on an expansionary trend, supported by strong semiconductor demand associated with IoT, AI and 5G. - FY2021-Q2The company describes a recovery from market adjustment to a quarterly record high.Annual report
「In addition to NAND flash memory, where supply-demand conditions have improved, capital investment in DRAM and logic and foundry semiconductors also remained firm, bringing the semiconductor manufacturing equipment market back to a quarterly record high.」
The company explains that, from the memory investment adjustment phase reported through the previous fiscal year, the semiconductor manufacturing equipment market recovered to a quarterly record high, supported by improved supply-demand conditions and firm capital investment. - FY2021-Q1The company describes a shift from market adjustment to a trend toward recovery.Annual report
「The supply-demand balance for DRAM and NAND flash memory has improved against the backdrop described above, and both have shifted toward recovery from the previous fiscal year. Capital investment in logic and foundry semiconductors also remained firm, and the semiconductor manufacturing equipment market remained robust.」
The company describes a shift from the memory investment adjustment phase reported through the previous fiscal year to improved supply-demand conditions and a recovery trend in DRAM and NAND. - FY2020-Q3The company describes a shift from continued market adjustment to a trend toward expansion.Annual report
「Although NAND flash memory and DRAM were in a temporary adjustment phase, the market is expected to move toward expansion as the supply-demand balance improves.」
Although NAND flash memory and DRAM remain in an adjustment phase, the company describes improving supply-demand conditions and an expected shift toward market expansion. - FY2020-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「Capital investment in logic and foundry semiconductors remained firm. As noted above, although DRAM and three-dimensional NAND flash memory are in a temporary adjustment phase, they are expected to move toward recovery as the supply-demand balance improves.」
While capital investment in DRAM and three-dimensional NAND remains under adjustment, the company indicates that a recovery is expected as the supply-demand balance improves, reaffirming the cyclicality and adjustment risks in the semiconductor market. - FY2020-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「Although capital investment in logic semiconductors was made for new generations, capital investment plans by memory manufacturers for DRAM and three-dimensional NAND flash memory are undergoing a temporary adjustment against a backdrop including slower demand from data centers. The market is expected to move toward recovery as the supply-demand balance improves.」
While the adjustment phase caused by slower demand from data centers and memory manufacturers' reviews of capital investment plans is continuing, the company also expects a recovery as the supply-demand balance improves. - FY2019MaterialisedAnnual report
「Although investment in memory applications entered an adjustment phase in the second half of the fiscal year, semiconductor demand is expected to drive substantial further market growth over the medium to long term, supported by new technologies associated with artificial intelligence (AI) and next-generation communications standards (5G), in addition to existing demand from PCs and mobile devices.」
The company states that capital investment in memory applications entered an adjustment phase in the second half of the fiscal year, indicating that the previously identified risk of contraction in the semiconductor market has materialized as an actual market adjustment. - FY2019-Q3MaterialisedAnnual report
「Against a backdrop of slowing demand from data centers and smartphones, some memory manufacturers have begun reviewing their capital investment plans, and the semiconductor manufacturing equipment market has recently entered an adjustment phase.」
Regarding the previously identified cyclicality and contraction risks in the semiconductor market, the company describes slowing demand from data centers and smartphones, memory manufacturers' reviews of capital investment plans, and the market's entry into an adjustment phase. - FY2019-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「During the first 2 quarters of the current fiscal year, there were no new events among the matters relating to the business and accounting conditions described in this quarterly report that could have a material impact on investors' decisions, nor any material changes to the “Business and Other Risks” described in the annual securities report for the previous fiscal year.」
The company states that there have been no material changes to its business and other risks, including semiconductor market cyclicality. - FY2019-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「During the first quarter of the current fiscal year, there were no new events among the matters relating to the business and accounting conditions described in this quarterly report that could have a material impact on investors' decisions, nor any material changes to the “Business and Other Risks” described in the annual securities report for the previous fiscal year.」
The company states that there have been no material changes to its business and other risks, including semiconductor market cyclicality. - FY2018RestatedAnnual report
「However, if an unexpected sharp contraction in market size were to result in order cancellations, excess capacity and personnel, rising inventories, bad debt losses caused by deterioration in customers' financial condition, or supply shortages caused by deterioration in suppliers' financial condition, this could have a material adverse effect on our group's performance.」
The company reiterates the risks of order cancellations, excess capacity and personnel, inventory, bad debts, and supply shortages associated with a sharp contraction in the semiconductor market. - FY2018-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「During the first 3 quarters of the current fiscal year, there were no new events among the matters relating to the business and accounting conditions described in this quarterly report that could have a material impact on investors' decisions, nor any material changes to the “Business and Other Risks” described in the annual securities report for the previous fiscal year.」
The company states that there have been no material changes to its business and other risks, including semiconductor market cyclicality. - FY2018-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「During the first 2 quarters of the current fiscal year, there were no new events among the matters relating to the business and accounting conditions described in this quarterly report that could have a material impact on investors' decisions, nor any material changes to the “Business and Other Risks” described in the annual securities report for the previous fiscal year.」
The company states that there have been no material changes to its business and other risks, including semiconductor market cyclicality. - FY2018-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「During the first 2 quarters of the current fiscal year, there were no new events among the matters relating to the business and accounting conditions described in this quarterly report that could have a material impact on investors' decisions, nor any material changes to the “Business and Other Risks” described in the annual securities report for the previous fiscal year.」
The company states that there have been no material changes to its business and other risks, including semiconductor market cyclicality. - FY2018-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「During the first quarter of the current fiscal year, there were no new events among the matters relating to the business and accounting conditions described in this quarterly report that could have a material impact on investors' decisions, nor any material changes to the “Business and Other Risks” described in the annual securities report for the previous fiscal year.」
The company is reaffirming that there have been no material changes to its business and other risks. - FY2017RestatedAnnual report
「While the semiconductor market can grow substantially as technology changes, its size can temporarily contract when the supply-demand balance deteriorates. Our group has therefore also actively pursued structural reforms to generate profits even under such conditions.」
The company reiterates the risks of semiconductor market cyclicality and order cancellations, excess capacity and personnel, inventory, bad debts, and supply shortages during a market contraction. - FY2017-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「During the first 3 quarters of the current fiscal year, there were no new events among the matters relating to the business and accounting conditions described in this quarterly report that could have a material impact on investors' decisions, nor any material changes to the “Business and Other Risks” described in the annual securities report for the previous fiscal year.」
The company states that there have been no material changes to its business and other risks, including semiconductor market cyclicality. - FY2016First statedAnnual report
「While the semiconductor market can grow substantially as technology changes, its size can temporarily contract when the supply-demand balance deteriorates. Our group has therefore also actively pursued structural reforms to generate profits even under such conditions.」
The company identifies order cancellations, excess capacity and personnel, rising inventories, bad debt losses, and supply shortages during market contractions as factors that could affect performance.