Weak housing demand due to population decline and a declining birthrate
First written in FY2017. 15 of 29 entries say "Restated". Latest entry: 2026-10-15.
C.S. Lumber Co.,Inc moved to the "Worse" side of this theme in 2018, 2 years before the typical company in this theme (2020).
The whole theme swung hardest in 2020: 12 of 17 companies on the "Worse" side.
10 other companies' latest entry also says "Restated".
- 2026-10-15RestatedEarnings
「前年の法改正に伴う反動減からの回復により、新設住宅着工戸数全体では前年同四半期比10.8％増となるなど増加に転じたものの、資材価格や労務費の高騰、さらには住宅ローン金利の上昇懸念に伴う購買意欲の低下から、戸建て住宅の伸びは鈍く、依然として厳しい経営環境が続いております。」
新設住宅着工戸数全体は回復した一方、戸建て住宅の伸び悩みと住宅ローン金利上昇懸念による購買意欲低下が引き続き記載されている。 - FY2026WorsenedAnnual report
「Against the backdrop of the decline in rush demand following the April 2025 revision to the Building Standards Act, which introduced mandatory compliance with energy-efficiency standards, and longer building-confirmation procedures, new housing starts declined 5.3% cumulatively from June 2025 through May 2026.」
The decline in housing starts continued at 5.3% year on year. In addition to the pullback from rush demand and longer building-confirmation procedures following the revision to the Building Standards Act, the company cites weaker sentiment toward home purchases due to higher housing construction prices and concerns about rising mortgage rates. - FY2026-H1WorsenedAnnual report
「New housing starts in the six-month interim consolidated accounting period declined as the pullback from rush demand associated with the April 2025 revision to the Building Standards Act continued, falling 7.9% year on year cumulatively from June through November.」
The decline in new housing starts widened to 7.9% year on year, with weak housing demand continuing. In addition to the pullback from rush demand following the revision to the Building Standards Act, the company is concerned that higher mortgage rates could weaken purchasing sentiment. - FY2024-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「New housing starts, particularly detached housing, have struggled as higher housing construction prices have weakened sentiment toward home purchases, and new housing starts in the nine-month period ended February 2024 remained below the prior-year level. Cumulatively from June through February, starts declined 6.9%, with owner-occupied and for-sale housing starts declining particularly sharply.」
New housing starts continued to decline against the backdrop of higher housing construction prices and weaker sentiment toward home purchases. Starts declined 6.9% year on year cumulatively from June through February, with owner-occupied and for-sale housing remaining weak. - FY2024-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「New housing starts in the six-month period ended November 2023 remained below the prior-year level, declining 7.6% cumulatively from June through November. Owner-occupied starts declined substantially, and for-sale housing also began to decline.」
New housing starts declined 7.6% cumulatively, with for-sale housing joining owner-occupied housing in declining. Weak housing demand continued to deteriorate. - FY2024-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「New housing starts in the three-month period ended August 2023 remained below the prior-year level, declining 7.5% cumulatively from June through August. Owner-occupied starts declined substantially, and for-sale housing also began to decline.」
The decline in new housing starts widened to 7.5% year on year, with for-sale housing joining owner-occupied housing in declining. Weak housing demand deteriorated from the previous quarter. - FY2023-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「New housing starts in the nine-month period ended February 2023 fell 0.23% year on year, with owner-occupied starts declining particularly sharply. Concerns about higher mortgage rates and a rapid increase in prices are dampening consumer sentiment toward home purchases, raising concerns about the impact on the future business environment.」
Declines in new housing starts and weak owner-occupied starts have continued. The company also identifies concerns about housing demand from weaker consumer sentiment due to expectations of higher mortgage rates and rapidly rising prices. - FY2023-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「In the housing-related industry to which our group belongs, housing construction prices have continued to rise due to higher prices for building materials, housing equipment and logistics. New housing starts in the six-month period ended November 2022 fell 0.9% year on year, with owner-occupied starts declining particularly sharply, raising concerns about the impact on the future business environment.」
The company continues to report rising housing construction prices and a 0.9% year-on-year decline in new housing starts, particularly a sharp decline in owner-occupied starts. The risk of weak housing demand remains. - FY2023-Q1MaterialisedAnnual report
「Higher construction costs, including rising prices for building materials, and a shortage of skilled workers have begun to affect housing demand. New housing starts remained below the prior-year level, declining 1.1% cumulatively from June through August.」
The prior period's increase in new housing starts reversed, with starts declining 1.1% year on year in the current quarter against the backdrop of higher construction costs and a shortage of skilled workers. - FY2022Higher housing starts alongside long-term forecasts of a 50% declineAnnual report
「New housing starts increased 5.0% year on year on a cumulative basis from June 2021 through May 2022.」
While new housing starts increased 5.0% year on year in the near term, the company also cited forecasts that the housing market could halve over the long term, presenting recovery alongside concerns about structural contraction. - FY2022-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「In the housing-related industry to which our group belongs, new housing starts remained above the prior-year level, increasing 6.3% cumulatively from June through February.」
The company continued to report recovering housing demand through the ongoing increase in new housing starts. Shortages and persistently high prices of lumber were reported separately. - FY2022-Q2Housing demand recovery coexisting with declining ordersAnnual report
「New housing starts remained above the prior-year level, increasing 7.2% cumulatively from June through November. However, market conditions have begun to change, with housing companies' orders declining year on year from October onward following the expiration of special occupancy measures under the mortgage-tax deduction.」
New housing starts increased 7.2% cumulatively, while orders received by housing companies declined after the special mortgage-tax deduction period expired, indicating that recovery and weakening demand coexisted at different times. - FY2022-Q1MitigatedAnnual report
「Supported by low mortgage rates and various government housing-acquisition support measures, new housing starts in August 2021 increased 7.5% year on year, marking six consecutive monthly increases since March, while cumulative starts from January through August increased 4.7% year on year.」
Regarding housing demand, the company reported a 7.5% year-on-year increase in new housing starts in August 2021 and six consecutive monthly increases, compared with the previous period's weak trend. It did not state that the structural risk from population decline had disappeared. - FY2021RestatedAnnual report
「According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, new housing starts in fiscal 2020 fell substantially to 812,164 units, down 8.1% from the previous fiscal year, due to the impact of COVID-19 and other factors.」
The company reported that new housing starts fell to 812,164 units, down 8.1% year on year, as evidence of weak housing demand. - FY2021-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, new owner-occupied housing starts remained at a low level due to the impact of COVID-19 and other factors.」
New owner-occupied housing starts remained low due to COVID-19 and other factors, indicating continued weak housing demand. - FY2021-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「Although mortgage rates in the housing-related industry to which our group belongs have remained low, new housing starts have continued to decline year on year, partly due to the impact of COVID-19.」
Weak housing demand has continued, with new housing starts remaining below the prior-year level due to the impact of COVID-19. - FY2021-Q1MaterialisedAnnual report
「Although low mortgage rates and various government housing-acquisition support measures continued in the housing-related industry to which our group belongs, new housing starts fell substantially year on year, partly due to the spread of COVID-19.」
The company states that the weak housing-demand risk materialized in the current quarter as a substantial decline in new housing starts against the backdrop of the spread of COVID-19. - FY2020WorsenedAnnual report
「In the housing-related industry, a sharp short-term contraction in the market is a concern due to the impact of the spread of COVID-19.」
In addition to population decline, the declining birth rate and weak rental-housing demand, the company explicitly identified concerns about a sharp short-term contraction in the housing-related market due to COVID-19. - FY2020-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「New housing starts temporarily increased due to low mortgage rates, continued government housing-acquisition support measures and rush demand ahead of the consumption-tax increase, but subsequently declined following the discovery of construction defects in rental housing and tighter lending standards by financial institutions.」
The company continues to report weak housing demand, citing temporary increases in owner-occupied and for-sale housing and declines caused by construction defects and tighter lending standards in rental housing. - FY2020-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「In the housing-related industry to which our group belongs, new rental-housing starts declined following the discovery of construction defects in rental housing and tighter lending standards by financial institutions. By contrast, starts of owner-occupied and for-sale detached housing increased on the back of low mortgage rates, continued government housing-acquisition support measures and rush demand ahead of the consumption-tax increase.」
Demand for rental housing remained weak due to construction defects and tighter lending standards, while owner-occupied and for-sale detached housing increased on the back of low rates, government support measures and pre-tax-increase demand. The company continues to report demand trends by housing type. - FY2019RestatedAnnual report
「Although new rental-housing starts declined following the discovery of construction defects in rental housing and tighter lending standards by financial institutions, starts of owner-occupied and for-sale detached housing increased on the back of low mortgage rates, continued government housing-acquisition support measures and rush demand ahead of the consumption-tax increase.」
Demand remained weak for rental housing, while owner-occupied and for-sale detached housing increased due to mortgage rates, government support measures and pre-tax-increase demand. - FY2019-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「Although new rental-housing starts declined as financial institutions tightened lending standards, starts of owner-occupied and for-sale housing increased as mortgage rates remained low and government housing-acquisition support measures continued.」
Weak housing demand continued in the rental-housing segment, with tighter lending standards by financial institutions identified as a specific factor. By contrast, starts of owner-occupied and for-sale housing increased, presenting demand trends by housing type. - FY2018MaterialisedAnnual report
「New housing starts remained weak, with declines in owner-occupied, rental and for-sale housing.」
The risk of weak housing demand has materialized as declines in starts of owner-occupied, rental and for-sale housing. - FY2018-Q4WorsenedAnnual report
「Although mortgage rates have remained low and various government housing-acquisition support measures have continued, the number of rental-housing starts declined as tax-saving measures related to inheritance tax ran their course, and new housing starts remained weak.」
In addition to the established decline in new housing starts, the factors behind the decline in rental-housing starts have become more specific. In the construction contracting business, both orders and completions fell far below plan, showing the impact of weak demand on performance. - FY2018-Q3MaterialisedAnnual report
「Although mortgage rates have remained low and various government housing-acquisition support measures have continued, the number of new housing starts has been trending down year on year, and construction demand has remained weak.」
The risk of weak housing demand has emerged in the current quarter as a downward trend in new housing starts and weak construction demand, rather than as a future forecast. - FY2017First statedAnnual report
「After Heisei 32, when the Tokyo Olympics are scheduled to be held, housing demand in the Tokyo metropolitan area, our operating market, is also expected to remain weak due to population decline and the declining birth rate, with the number of new housing starts expected to decrease.」
The company identified declining future housing demand and new housing starts as major business-environment risks.