Global Economic Slowdown and Increased Uncertainty

「Although the global economy generally remained on a gradual recovery path, concerns about downside risks to the global economy rose rapidly because of the sharp escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the resulting increase in energy prices and disruption to maritime logistics. The prolonged Russia-Ukraine situation, the continued weakness of China's property market, and developments in trade policy in major countries further intensified uncertainty about the outlook.」

「Looking at the global economy during the six-month interim consolidated accounting period ended 30 June 2025 (1 January 2025 to 30 June 2025), concerns about the outlook increased because geopolitical risks persisted and U.S. tariff policy created additional uncertainty. Japan and Europe remained on gradual recovery paths, while the U.S. showed signs of slowing and China's property market and other issues persisted despite the effects of policy measures.」

「Looking at the global economy during the consolidated fiscal year, some regions, including China, stagnated, but the global economy overall remained on a recovery path. At the same time, uncertainty continued because of geopolitical risks, including the prolonged Russian invasion of Ukraine and heightened tensions in the Middle East.」

「Looking at the global economy during the six-month interim consolidated accounting period ended 30 June 2024 (1 January 2024 to 30 June 2024), it generally remained on a gradual recovery path, but uncertainty continued because of geopolitical risks, including the prolonged Russian invasion of Ukraine and heightened tensions in the Middle East, as well as China's weak property market.」

「Looking at the global economy during the three-month period ended 30 June, some overseas economies stagnated, but the global economy overall remained on a gradual recovery path. However, uncertainty about the outlook continued because of geopolitical risks, including the prolonged Russia-Ukraine situation and heightened tensions in the Middle East, as well as the weak property market in China.」

「Looking at the global economy during the nine-month period ended 30 September 2023 (1 January 2023 to 30 September 2023), uncertainty continued because of the prolonged Russian invasion of Ukraine, energy issues, global high inflation, and interest-rate hikes by countries around the world.」

「Looking at the global economy during the six-month period ended 30 June 2023 (1 January 2023 to 30 June 2023), uncertainty continued because of the prolonged Russian invasion of Ukraine, energy issues, global high inflation, and interest-rate hikes by countries around the world.」

「Looking at the global economy during the three-month period ended 31 March 2023 (1 January 2023 to 31 March 2023), uncertainty continued because of the prolonged Russian invasion of Ukraine, energy issues, global high inflation, interest-rate hikes by countries around the world, and U.S. bank failures.」

「Although semiconductor shortages showed signs of easing recently, uncertainty continued because of higher resource prices and semiconductor shortages since the previous year, the prolonged Russian invasion of Ukraine, concerns over energy supplies, supply-chain disruptions, high inflation and the resulting sharp interest-rate hikes. Meanwhile, the impact of COVID-19 eased, except in China, where the zero-COVID policy remained in place.」

「Although semiconductor shortages showed signs of easing recently, uncertainty continued because of the effects of higher resource prices and semiconductor shortages since the previous year, the prolonged Russian invasion of Ukraine, concerns over energy supplies, supply-chain disruptions, high inflation and the resulting sharp interest-rate hikes.」

「Looking at the global economy during the six-month period ended 30 June 2022 (1 January 2022 to 30 June 2022), uncertainty increased further because of worsening infections caused by the Omicron variant, higher resource prices, tight logistics supply and demand, and the continued impact of the semiconductor shortage, compounded by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and lockdowns in China.」

「Looking at the global economy during the three-month period ended 31 March 2022 (1 January 2022 to 31 March 2022), uncertainty increased further because of worsening infections caused by the Omicron variant, higher resource prices, tight logistics supply and demand, and the continued impact of the semiconductor shortage, compounded from February by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.」

「Vaccinations progressed worldwide and economic activity gradually recovered, but uncertainty remained because of the renewed spread of COVID-19 and the worsening global semiconductor shortage.」

「Vaccinations progressed worldwide and economic activity gradually moved toward recovery, but uncertainty remained. The U.S. economy remained on a recovery path as personal consumption continued to improve against the backdrop of a lower unemployment rate and capital investment remained firm, although the renewed spread of COVID-19 caused sluggish services and personal consumption in the near term. Europe's slowdown intensified as prices rose amid higher resource prices and supply-chain disruptions. China's growth rate slowed in the second half of the year because of restrictions following renewed outbreaks in some cities, a weak property market, and power shortages, despite a strong recovery in the first half. Japan saw some recovery in exports and capital investment, but the pace of recovery slowed as personal consumption remained sluggish amid repeated reissuance of states of emergency and priority preventive measures.」

「Looking at the global economy during the six-month period ended 30 June 2021 (1 January 2021 to 30 June 2021), although the spread of COVID-19 had still not subsided, the U.S. economy entered a recovery phase, with personal consumption improving against the backdrop of higher household income from cash transfers and a lower unemployment rate, while capital investment and residential investment also increased. Europe showed signs of improvement in the second quarter, but remained in a difficult situation as personal consumption stagnated under the impact of lockdowns and the extension or tightening of restrictions in some countries. China achieved high growth, led by personal consumption, fixed-asset investment, and exports, partly because strict measures to prevent the spread of infection enabled it to recover from the pandemic at an early stage. Japan contracted as personal consumption remained sluggish amid repeated reissuance of states of emergency and the implementation of priority preventive measures, despite some support from exports and capital investment.」

「Although the spread of COVID-19 had still not subsided in many parts of the world, the U.S. economy saw improved personal consumption against the backdrop of higher household income resulting from cash transfers under economic stimulus measures and a lower unemployment rate. In Europe, sentiment in the mining and manufacturing industries improved, but personal consumption remained sluggish because lockdowns and other restrictions were extended or tightened in some countries. China's fixed-asset investment and personal consumption remained strong, while exports improved particularly sharply, partly because of substitute supply following lockdowns in parts of Europe. In Japan, exports provided some support, but the economy contracted because tourism, food service, and entertainment suffered and personal consumption remained weak, partly because a state of emergency was reintroduced from the beginning of the year.」

「The third quarter brought a recovery from the sharp decline in the second quarter, but economic activity had only resumed gradually, a full-scale recovery had not been achieved, and uncertainty about the outlook continued.」

「Looking at the global economy during the six-month period ended 30 June 2020 (1 January 2020 to 30 June 2020), it deteriorated sharply amid social disruption and a slowdown in economic activity caused by the global spread of COVID-19.」

「The novel coronavirus disease that emerged in China's Hubei Province at the end of 2019 spread worldwide in 2020, plunging the global economy into a severe situation. Initially, concerns focused on the impact on the global economy of disruptions to production and logistics in China, but measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 were subsequently introduced in countries around the world, causing major social disruption. These developments have also had a major impact on the real economy, and concerns have risen sharply amid expectations of a severe recession on a scale not seen since the Great Depression.」

「The U.S. economy continued to grow, although exports and imports declined and capital investment slowed as the U.S.-China trade friction weakened business sentiment. Europe experienced low growth as exports remained weak. China's growth rate declined because of the impact of the U.S.-China trade friction and slowing personal consumption. Japan's domestic demand contributed to growth, partly due to front-loaded demand ahead of the consumption tax increase, but the slowdown in overseas economies reduced external demand and corporate earnings, particularly in manufacturing, grew sluggishly, limiting the recovery to a gradual pace.」

「Looking at the global economy during the nine-month period ended 30 September 2019 (1 January 2019 to 30 September 2019), the U.S. economy remained firm as solid consumption continued. The European economy entered a slowing phase because of weakness in manufacturing. China's slowdown continued because of the effects of the U.S.-China trade friction. Japan's economy remained on a gradual recovery path, supported by improving employment conditions and a recovery in consumption, although production remained weak.」

「Looking at the global economy during the six-month period ended 30 June 2019 (1 January 2019 to 30 June 2019), the U.S. economy continued its steady recovery, supported by increased consumption. The European economy entered a gradual recovery phase despite some weakness. China's economy remained on a slowing path because of the effects of the U.S.-China trade friction. Japan's economy also remained on a gradual recovery path, supported by improving employment conditions and a recovery in consumption, although exports and production remained weak.」

「Looking at the global economy during the three-month period ended 31 March 2019 (1 January 2019 to 31 March 2019), the U.S. economy maintained a growth rate in line with the same period of the previous year, but personal consumption and capital investment showed weakness. Growth in Europe continued to slow because of sluggish personal consumption. China's growth rate also slowed year on year, although the effects of government policies brought signs that the slowdown had bottomed out. Japan's economy entered a gradual recovery phase due to improvements in employment and income conditions, but uncertainty about the outlook remained because of concerns over a slowdown in overseas economies and the prolonged U.S.-China trade dispute.」

「Looking at the global economy during the nine-month period ended 30 September 2018 (1 January 2018 to 30 September 2018), despite concerns about emerging economies and developments in trade issues, the U.S. economy continued its steady recovery, supported by increased consumption and investment. The European economy also remained on a gradual recovery path, while the Chinese economy showed signs of slowing consumption and investment. Japan's economy remained on a gradual recovery path, supported in part by increased investment.」

「Looking at the global economy during the six-month period ended 30 June 2018 (1 January 2018 to 30 June 2018), despite concerns about emerging economies and developments in trade issues, the U.S. and European economies continued to grow gradually, supported by solid consumption and investment. China's economy maintained a high growth rate, driven by expanding personal consumption and exports. Japan's economy also remained on a gradual recovery path against the backdrop of solid overseas economies.」

「Looking at the global economy during the three-month period ended 31 March 2018 (1 January 2018 to 31 March 2018), despite uncertainty over the outlook for emerging economies and concerns including geopolitical risks, the U.S. and European economies continued to grow gradually, supported by solid consumption and investment. China's economy maintained a high growth rate, driven by expanding personal consumption. Japan's economy also entered a gradual recovery phase against the backdrop of solid overseas economies.」

「At the beginning of the year, uncertainty prevailed regarding the policies of the new U.S. administration and the United Kingdom's Brexit negotiations. Nevertheless, both the U.S. and European economies continued to grow gradually, supported by improvements in employment and income conditions. China's economy maintained a high growth rate, driven by expanding exports and personal consumption. Japan's economy also recovered gradually, supported by firm external demand, and the global economy overall remained on a recovery path.」

「An overview of the global economy during the cumulative third quarter of the consolidated fiscal period (1 January 2017 to 30 September 2017) shows that the US and European economies maintained gradual growth trends against a backdrop of improving employment and income conditions, while the Chinese economy maintained a high growth rate, partly due to the effects of government policies. Japan's economy also entered a gradual recovery phase, supported in part by firm external demand.」

「Looking at the global economy during the six-month period ended 30 September, despite concerns including geopolitical risks, the U.S. and European economies remained on a path of gradual growth, supported by improvements in employment and income conditions, while the Chinese economy maintained a high growth rate, partly due to the effects of government policies. Japan's economy also remained on a gradual recovery path, supported in part by firm external demand.」

「Although improvements in employment conditions continued in Europe, personal consumption remained sluggish because of lackluster wage growth and other factors. The Chinese economy maintained a high growth rate, driven by increased infrastructure investment and real estate investment despite concerns about financial risks. In Japan, exports and production remained firm and the economy entered a gradual recovery phase as corporate earnings improved, but the limited spillover from improved corporate earnings to households persisted, and personal consumption remained weak.」

「Although the European economy remained on a gradual recovery path, signs of a slowdown emerged in the eurozone economy from the summer onward, including declines in imports and exports. The Chinese economy saw declines in exports and weak private investment, but the slowdown in its growth rate bottomed out and growth leveled off, supported by major tax cuts and public investment. Meanwhile, although employment and income conditions in Japan improved, personal consumption showed signs of weakness, and continued yen appreciation and other factors led to deteriorating corporate earnings, leaving the economic recovery stalled.」

「The European economy was on a path of gradual recovery led by personal consumption. However, in addition to weakness in production and exports, financial market turmoil associated with the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the EU raised concerns about spillover effects on the real economy, further increasing uncertainty about the outlook.」