Global Economic Slowdown and Uncertainty in Japan and Overseas

「今後の見通しにつきましては、地政学情勢の不安定化や物価の上昇、燃料・原材料等の供給および価格を巡る不確実性などにより、景気の先行きは不透明な状況が続くことが想定されます。」

「The global economy remained uncertain due to high interest rates in Europe and the United States, stagnation in China's real estate market, developments in US trade policy, continued inflation and volatility in the financial and capital markets.」

「Meanwhile, stagnation in the mainland Chinese real estate market, US policy developments and volatility in the financial and capital markets could weigh on domestic and overseas economies, and the outlook remained uncertain. In addition, expenses in the retail sector increased due to higher wages and raw material costs, resulting in continued difficult operating conditions.」

「During the fiscal year, the outlook for the domestic and global economies remained uncertain due to surging global resource prices and a downturn in overseas economies associated with monetary tightening. In addition, price increases for essential goods continued amid the weaker yen and rising raw material prices and energy costs, further strengthening consumers' preference for thrift.」

「During the third quarter of the fiscal year, the outlook for the domestic and global economies remained uncertain due to surging global resource prices and a downturn in overseas economies associated with monetary tightening. In addition, price increases for essential goods continued amid the weaker yen and rising raw material prices and energy costs, further strengthening consumers' preference for thrift.」

「During the second quarter of the fiscal year, the outlook for the domestic and global economies remained uncertain due to surging global resource prices and a downturn in overseas economies associated with monetary tightening. In addition, price increases for essential goods continued amid the weaker yen and rising raw material prices and energy costs, further strengthening consumers' preference for thrift.」

「During the first quarter of the fiscal year, economic activity gradually normalized, but the outlook for the domestic and global economies remained uncertain due to surging global resource prices and a downturn in overseas economies associated with monetary tightening. In addition, price increases for essential goods continued amid the weaker yen and rising raw material prices and energy costs, further strengthening consumers' preference for thrift.」

「Meanwhile, the outlook for the domestic and global economies remained uncertain due to surging global resource prices and a downturn in overseas economies associated with monetary tightening. In addition, price increases for essential goods continued amid the weaker yen and rising raw material prices and energy costs, further strengthening consumers' preference for thrift.」

「During the third quarter of the fiscal year, economic activity showed signs of gradually resuming due to progress in COVID-19 vaccinations and the easing of movement restrictions. Meanwhile, the outlook for the domestic and global economies remained uncertain due to surging global resource prices, supply chain disruptions and the rapid depreciation of the yen. In addition, price increases for essential goods and rising energy costs continued, strengthening consumers' preference for thrift.」

「During the second quarter of the fiscal year, economic activity showed signs of gradually resuming due to progress in COVID-19 vaccinations and the easing of movement restrictions. Meanwhile, the outlook for the domestic and global economies remained uncertain due to surging global resource prices, supply chain disruptions and the rapid depreciation of the yen. In addition, price increases for essential goods and rising energy costs continued, strengthening consumers' preference for thrift.」

「Meanwhile, the outlook for the domestic and global economies remained uncertain due to surging global resource prices, supply chain disruptions and the rapid depreciation of the yen. In addition, price increases for essential goods and rising energy costs continued, strengthening consumers' preference for thrift.」

「Meanwhile, the outlook for the domestic and global economies remained uncertain due to surging global resource prices, supply chain disruptions and the rapid depreciation of the yen. In mainland China, signs of slowing consumption became more pronounced amid a renewed spread of infections.」

「During the first quarter of the fiscal year, vaccination against COVID-19 progressed, but the outlook for the domestic and global economies remained uncertain.」

「During the fiscal year, the global spread of COVID-19 remained unpredictable, and the outlook for both Japan and the global economy continued to be uncertain. Although vaccination was progressing in some regions, the spread of highly infectious variants was expected to potentially affect economic activity going forward.」

「The global economy has seen increasing divergence in the pace of recovery due to differences in infection conditions and economic measures among countries and regions. In the United States, domestic demand has grown due to large-scale economic measures and the widespread rollout of vaccines, bringing the economy close to its pre-pandemic level. Europe, however, has fallen sharply even compared with other developed economies as the rapid spread of variants has led to tighter public health measures. China's economy has remained on a recovery trend, but lockdowns in some regions to prevent a renewed spread of infections and movement restrictions during the Lunar New Year holiday have hindered the recovery in personal consumption.」

「The global economy continued to show signs of recovery due to the gradual reopening of economic activity and the effects of economic stimulus measures, but the pace of recovery in the United States slowed due to the renewed spread of COVID-19. In China, restrictions on activity to prevent a renewed spread of COVID-19 hindered the recovery in personal consumption. Europe declined again due to the renewed spread of COVID-19. Although the spread of vaccinations is reducing the risk of outbreaks, concerns remain over the impact of uncertainty surrounding the spread of infections on consumer activity.」

「While China and East Asia are on a gradual recovery trend as COVID-19 comes under control, concerns remain that economic stagnation will be prolonged in parts of Europe, the United States and South Asia, where worsening outbreaks have led to the reintroduction of movement restrictions.」

「The global economy has deteriorated rapidly and substantially due to the escalating US trade conflict and the spread of COVID-19.」

「The economy has already begun to recover, with April and May marking the worst period, but the recovery has been gradual because downward pressure on the economy remains amid concerns over a renewed spread of infections.」

「Looking at the global economy, uncertainty over the outlook continued amid an unstable international environment, including US-China trade friction and the issue of the UK's withdrawal from the EU.」

「The global economy remained uncertain amid an unstable international environment, including prolonged US-China trade friction and the issue of the UK's withdrawal from the EU.」

「During the second quarter of the fiscal year, Japan's real GDP growth in the April–June 2019 quarter was 0.3% quarter on quarter, or 1.3% on an annualized basis, marking the third consecutive quarter of positive growth. Although the economy remained on a moderate recovery trend, weakness in exports and production increased uncertainty over the outlook. The global economy remained uncertain due to factors including escalating US-China trade friction and the issue of the UK's withdrawal from the EU.」

「While capital investment improved, personal consumption declined from the previous period and domestic demand remained sluggish, lacking strength. In the global economy, uncertainty over the outlook increased amid an unstable international environment, including escalating trade friction resulting from US trade policy and the issue of the UK's withdrawal from the EU.」

「During the fiscal year, Japan's economy maintained its expansionary trend despite slower growth in exports and personal consumption due to the effects of natural disasters that occurred during the summer and escalating US-China trade friction. Looking at the global economy, expanded fiscal spending boosted the US economy, while tax cuts also drove growth in personal consumption and capital investment. Europe's growth rate declined from the previous year. China's economy continued to slow due to its deleveraging policy and the effects of US-China trade friction.」

「In China, real GDP growth in the July–September 2018 quarter was 6.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from 6.7% in the April–June quarter, marking a slowdown for the second consecutive quarter. In addition to investment weakness associated with deleveraging, the slowdown in China's economy was also strongly suspected to reflect investors holding back on investment amid growing uncertainty over the outlook resulting from escalating US-China trade friction. In Asian countries other than China, the economy continued to expand steadily, led by solid domestic demand centered on personal consumption.」

「In China, real GDP growth in the April–June quarter edged down from the previous quarter to 6.7% year on year, mainly due to slower domestic demand associated with deleveraging, or the reduction of excessive debt.」

「During the first quarter of the fiscal year, Japan's economy recorded real GDP growth of minus 0.2% in the January–March 2018 quarter, or minus 0.6% on an annualized basis, marking the first negative growth in 9 quarters. The consumption environment remained difficult, reflecting surging fresh food prices caused by bad weather and sluggish sales of seasonal clothing due to the cold wave. In the global economy, the euro area's real GDP growth in the January–March 2018 quarter slowed to 0.4% quarter on quarter from 0.7% in the previous quarter, partly due to temporary factors such as the cold wave and strikes.」

「The global economy also maintained a high level of growth, with real GDP in the United States increasing at an annualized rate of 3.3% quarter on quarter in the July–September 2017 quarter, following the previous quarter’s strong growth. In the euro area, real GDP growth in the July–September 2017 quarter also remained high at 0.6% quarter on quarter, broadly in line with the previous quarter’s 0.7%. In China, private consumption remained firm and supported the economy, but adjustments in excess production capacity and tighter environmental regulations exerted downward pressure on production and investment, and signs of slowing growth intensified somewhat. As a result, real GDP growth in the July–September 2017 quarter was 6.8% quarter on quarter, slightly below the previous quarter’s 6.9%.」

「In the same period of the previous year, sales were centered on products procured at the peak of a significantly weaker yen, resulting in a substantial increase in the gross margin. During the six-month period ended the second quarter of the current fiscal year, however, products were sold after being procured at prevailing exchange rates, causing the cost ratio to rise from the same period of the previous year and reducing segment profit. Excluding foreign exchange effects, the company maintained a stable gross margin.」

「Profit declined as procurement costs increased from the previous fiscal year due to the stronger yen. However, the East Asia business recorded higher revenue in all regions: China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea.」

「During the third quarter, the sales operating margin temporarily deteriorated due to sharp foreign exchange movements.」

「The global economy was also significantly affected in foreign exchange and equity markets by the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the EU in the referendum held on 23 June. Although the impact on Europe’s real economy has not yet emerged, the outlook for negotiations between the United Kingdom and the EU remains uncertain, raising concerns about restrained investment and employment within Europe. In the United States, which continues to post strong economic indicators, employment growth has slowed, but expectations for the U.S. economic outlook remain strong, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a new all-time high. Going forward, the timing of U.S. interest rate hikes is attracting global attention because of concerns about their impact not only on the U.S. economy but primarily on emerging-market economies.」

「It was recognized that “the recovery is continuing, but growth remains subdued and uneven” and that “downside risks have been increasing.” In the United States and Europe, economic recovery continued, driven mainly by domestic demand. Among emerging economies, China continued to slow, primarily due to adjustments in excess investment, while growth rates remained sluggish in other countries as well. In Japan, real GDP growth in the January–March 2016 quarter was 0.5% quarter on quarter, or 1.9% on an annualized basis, but the leap-year effect and other factors boosted the growth rate, and the economy was viewed as having remained at a pause in practical terms. A gradual economic recovery is expected on the back of the further postponement of the consumption tax increase and improvements in employment and income conditions. However, uncertainty is expected to remain high due to the Kumamoto earthquake and the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union (EU).」