Market contraction due to declining birth rate and fewer children on childcare waiting lists
First written in FY2020. 13 of 17 entries say "Worsened", first in FY2021. Latest entry: FY2026.
Sakurasaku Plus moved to the "Worse" side of this theme in 2021, 4 years before the typical company in this theme (2025).
The whole theme swung hardest in 2025: 5 of 7 companies on the "Worse" side.
2 other companies' latest entry also says "Worsened".
- FY2026WorsenedAnnual report
「The number of births in 2025 fell further from 2024, when it had fallen below 700,000 for the first time, to a record-low 671,000. The total fertility rate, an indicator of the number of children a woman bears over her lifetime, was 1.14, down 0.01 percentage points from 2024 and a new record low.」
The number of births and total fertility rate reached new record lows of 671,000 and 1.14, respectively, further worsening the external environment through risks of a declining birth rate and contraction of the childcare market. Meanwhile, the rate of decline in births has slowed. - FY2026-H1WorsenedAnnual report
「The number of children born in 2025, including foreign nationals, fell 2.1% year on year to 705,809, setting a record low for the tenth consecutive year.」
The number of births fell to 705,809, marking a new record low for the 10th consecutive year. The external environment relating to the risk of a declining birth rate and contraction of the childcare market is deteriorating further. - FY2025WorsenedAnnual report
「The number of births in 2024 fell below 700,000 for the first time, to a record-low 686,061. In addition, the total fertility rate, an indicator of the number of children a woman bears over her lifetime, was 1.15, well below the previous year’s record low of 1.20.」
We cited the new record-low figures of 686,061 births and a total fertility rate of 1.15, indicating further deterioration in the risk of a declining birth rate and contraction of the childcare market. - FY2025-H1WorsenedAnnual report
「The number of births from January through December 2024 was 720,988, including foreign nationals residing in Japan and Japanese nationals residing overseas, down 37,643 year on year. This was below the 2023 record low, marking the ninth consecutive year of decline.」
The number of births fell to 720,988, below the previous year’s record low. The external environment relating to the risk of a declining birth rate and contraction of the childcare market is deteriorating further. - FY2024WorsenedAnnual report
「The number of births in 2023 fell for the eighth consecutive year to 727,277, down 43,482 from 2022, the lowest level since statistics began in 1899.」
The number of births fell to 727,277, a new record low since statistics began. The external environment relating to the risk of a declining birth rate and market contraction is deteriorating further. - FY2024-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「According to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare's preliminary vital statistics for March 2024, the number of births from January through March 2024 fell 6.4% year on year to 170,804, indicating that the acceleration of the declining birth rate remains unchecked, while the number of marriages increased 1.3% to 136,653.」
The number of births in January–March 2024 was 170,804, down 6.4% year on year, indicating deterioration in the external environment relating to the risk of a declining birth rate and market contraction. Meanwhile, the number of marriages increased 1.3%. - FY2024-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「According to the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare's preliminary vital statistics for December 2023, the number of births in 2023 fell 5.1% year on year, or 41,097, to 758,631, a record low after 8 consecutive years of decline. The number of marriages also fell 5.9% to 489,281, dropping below 500,000 for the first time in 90 years, and the declining birth rate is progressing faster than the government had expected.」
We cited 758,631 births, a 5.1% year-on-year decline and the eighth consecutive annual decrease, marking a record low, and updated the deterioration in the external environment relating to the risk of a declining birth rate and market contraction. - FY2023WorsenedAnnual report
「The number of births in 2022 was 770,747, and the total fertility rate fell for the seventh consecutive year to 1.26.」
We cited the new figures of 770,747 births and a total fertility rate of 1.26, explicitly indicating deterioration in the external environment relating to the risk of a declining birth rate and market contraction. - FY2023-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare released preliminary vital statistics on 28 February 2023, revealing that the number of births from January through December 2022 fell below 800,000 for the first time since statistics began and reached a record low, underscoring the increasingly serious nature of the declining birth rate.」
Regarding the risk of a declining birth rate and market contraction, we cited the new figure that the number of births had fallen below 800,000 to a record low, explicitly indicating deterioration in the external environment. - FY2023-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「The business environment surrounding our group remains challenging, due to the accelerating decline in the birth rate nationwide, work-style reforms and reduced use of childcare facilities resulting from changing lifestyles.」
In addition to the previous recognition of the declining birth rate and demand, we explicitly cited the accelerating decline in the birth rate and reduced use of childcare facilities, and stated that the challenging business environment is continuing. - FY2022MaterialisedAnnual report
「As childcare demand declined nationwide due to the declining birth rate, changes in work styles and changing lifestyles, the company was affected by sluggish revenue growth resulting from a decrease in enrolled children and margin pressure from higher costs caused by rising prices.」
We stated that declining childcare demand had affected actual performance through a decrease in the number of children enrolled, sluggish revenue growth and pressure on earnings. - FY2022-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「As childcare demand declines due to the declining birth rate nationwide, work-style reforms and changing lifestyles, among other factors」
We continue to recognize the decline in childcare demand due to the declining birth rate nationwide and other factors. Meanwhile, we are expanding our business, primarily through licensed childcare facilities in Tokyo. - FY2022-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「As the number of children waiting for childcare nationwide fell below 10,000 for the first time since the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare began its survey in 1994, childcare demand is declining, particularly for certified childcare facilities and small-scale childcare facilities.」
We reiterated that the number of children waiting for childcare nationwide has fallen below 10,000 and that demand is declining, particularly for certified childcare facilities and small-scale childcare facilities. Meanwhile, we stated that demand remains solid for licensed childcare facilities in Tokyo. - FY2021WorsenedAnnual report
「The number of children using childcare facilities is expected to peak in 2025, and demand for newly opened childcare facilities is expected to slow.」
We explicitly stated that the number of children using childcare facilities would peak in 2025 and that demand for new facilities would slow. We also stated that childcare demand is declining, particularly for certified childcare facilities and small-scale childcare facilities, as the number of children waiting for childcare nationwide has fallen below 10,000. - FY2020First statedAnnual report
「If the market contracts significantly due to the rapid decline in the birth rate and the decrease in the number of children waiting for childcare, this may affect the performance of our group.」
We identify the performance of the childcare business being affected by trends in the number of children as a risk.