Uncertainty over the Overseas Economic Outlook and Slowdown in China and Asia

「The environment surrounding our business and management has become increasingly difficult to predict as geopolitical risks, particularly regional conflicts and a shift to the right, and economic-security risks, including Trump tariffs, retaliatory measures and resource monopolization, expand globally. At present, uncertainty remains high due to energy price volatility and the risk of supply-chain fragmentation associated with heightened tensions in the Middle East, developments in trade policies in major countries, and volatility in financial and capital markets.」

「Global economic growth during the interim consolidated accounting period is expected to continue at a pace similar to that in the fiscal year ending March 2024, supported mainly by increased supply capacity resulting from proactive government spending, household consumption and a higher labor-force participation rate. However, rising service prices are hindering progress toward disinflation, and the risk of an upside surprise in inflation is expected to remain.」

「In the overseas economy, tighter financial conditions in the US are expected to weigh on corporate-sector economic activity, particularly in manufacturing, resulting in a gradual slowdown in economic activity. In Europe, the economy is expected to bottom out as inflationary pressures ease, while China’s economy is expected to weaken again due to weak consumer recovery and the continued property downturn. In addition, uncertainty continues due to residual geopolitical risks related to the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.」

「During the first 9 months of the fiscal year, Japan’s economy remained on a recovery trend as the impact of COVID-19 on economic activity subsided, but the recovery was generally gradual due in part to restrained capital investment, particularly in manufacturing, and a delayed recovery in employment. Overseas, personal consumption and capital investment remained firm in the US, while Europe saw an economic slowdown as inflation progressed and China experienced weak domestic demand and sluggish exports. In addition, uncertainty continued due to residual geopolitical risks related to the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.」

「During the first 6 months of the fiscal year, Japan’s economy remained on a gradual recovery trend as economic activity normalized, but conditions remained uncertain due to persistently high resource and energy prices and currency fluctuations. Overseas, the US and European economies slowed under the impact of high prices and monetary tightening. China’s economy initially recovered following the lifting of its zero-COVID policy, but uncertainty continued due to weak domestic demand and sluggish exports.」

「Meanwhile, uncertainty about the outlook continues due to persistently high resource and energy prices and sharp currency fluctuations. Overseas, the US and European economies are beginning to slow under the impact of high prices and monetary tightening. Although China’s economy is recovering following the lifting of its zero-COVID policy, uncertainty continues due to weak domestic demand and sluggish exports.」

「Overseas, concerns have emerged that economic and social activity, which had generally been recovering, may slow due to the prolonged situation surrounding Ukraine, persistent inflation and an economic slowdown in China.」

「Overseas, economic and social activity is generally moving toward normalization, but the situation remains unpredictable due to factors including lockdowns centered on Shanghai in China, the prolonged Russian invasion of Ukraine, soaring resource and energy prices, and the risk of significant volatility in financial and capital markets.」

「During the first 3 months of the fiscal year, Japan’s economy saw some recovery in corporate earnings, capital investment and personal consumption as the severe effects of COVID-19 gradually eased and economic activity resumed. However, the outlook remains uncertain due to factors including higher import costs resulting from further increases in resource prices and the depreciation of the yen. Overseas economies were generally recovering, although conditions varied by country and region, but concerns have emerged over an economic slowdown due to soaring energy and raw material prices against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical risks and the shift in US monetary policy toward tighter conditions.」

「During the fiscal year, Japan’s economy showed some signs of recovery in corporate earnings, production and capital investment as COVID-19 temporarily subsided. However, the outlook remains uncertain due to factors including a decline in personal consumption resulting from a new wave of infections and adverse effects from higher crude oil and resource prices. Overseas economies were generally recovering, although conditions varied by country and region, but concerns have emerged over an economic slowdown due to soaring raw material prices against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical risks, supply chain disruptions and the shift in US monetary policy toward tighter conditions.」

「Overseas economies are generally on a recovery trend, although conditions vary by country and region. However, the outlook remains uncertain due to concerns about an economic slowdown following the shift in US monetary policy toward tighter conditions and concerns about a slowdown in China stemming from its debt and energy problems.」

「Overseas economies gradually recovered as restrictions on economic activity were eased, although there were differences among countries and regions. However, the outlook remains uncertain due to the gradual withdrawal of fiscal and monetary support and the impact of a global semiconductor shortage.」

「Overseas economies are generally recovering, but regional disparities are widening depending on vaccination rates and other factors. In addition, some regions have again seen economic activity restricted by lockdowns and stay-at-home orders as infections from mutant strains spread. Against this backdrop, governments continue to pursue monetary and fiscal policies, but the timing of an end to the pandemic remains unclear and the economic outlook has become uncertain.」

「Regarding the outlook, in Japan, the end of the COVID-19 pandemic remains out of sight, capital investment and personal consumption remain sluggish, and the economic outlook is uncertain. Overseas, expectations for an end to the pandemic have increased as vaccination rates rise, but economic uncertainty has increased further due to the spread of infections, including mutant strains, developments in US-China trade issues, and the emergence of geopolitical risks.」

「During the first 9 months of the fiscal year, Japan’s economy experienced a significant downturn in economic activity as a result of the spread of COVID-19. Economic activity had gradually begun to recover following the lifting of the first state of emergency, but infections have been spreading again toward this winter, increasing uncertainty about the outlook. Infections have also been spreading overseas, raising concerns that economic activity may decline again as restrictions on movement are extended and strengthened in Europe and elsewhere.」

「Overseas, the outbreak continues in some regions, although economic activity has resumed, and it is expected to take further time to return to pre-outbreak levels.」

「During the current consolidated fiscal year, uncertainty about the outlook for Japan’s economy has increased due to the spread of COVID-19 and concerns that its impact will be prolonged, including the prospect of a sharp economic slowdown. Overseas, economic recovery has been seen in China, but the spread of COVID-19 continues and the overall scale of the economy is expected to contract.」

「Looking ahead, Japan’s economy is expected to slow sharply due to the spread of COVID-19, and uncertainty about the outlook has increased amid concerns that the impact will be prolonged. Overseas economies are also expected to contract significantly overall due to the effects of COVID-19, although economic activity has begun to resume in China and some other regions.」

「The outlook for overseas economies has become more concerning due to prolonged trade friction between the United States and China, the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU, and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.」

「The outlook for overseas economies has become more concerning due to prolonged trade friction between the United States and China, the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU, and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.」

「The outlook for overseas economies has become more concerning due to prolonged trade friction between the United States and China, the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU, and rising geopolitical tensions, including U.S. sanctions on Iran.」

「Overseas economies have continued to recover moderately overall, but uncertainty about the outlook has emerged due to prolonged trade friction arising from U.S. trade policy, developments in fiscal policy in Europe, and concerns about an economic slowdown in China.」

「Overseas economies have continued to recover moderately overall, but uncertainty about the outlook has emerged due to prolonged trade friction arising from U.S. trade policy, developments in fiscal policy in European countries, concerns about an economic slowdown in China, and turmoil in the Middle East.」

「Uncertainty persists in overseas economies due to trade friction arising from U.S. trade policy, developments in monetary policy in Europe, and concerns about an economic slowdown in China, but the overall moderate recovery trend continues.」

「Looking ahead, employment and income conditions in Japan are expected to continue improving, while corporate capital investment is expected to increase moderately. Overseas economies face uncertainty about the outlook, including geopolitical risks in the Middle East and East Asia and rising trade tensions between the United States and China, but are expected to continue recovering moderately overall.」

「During the first 3 quarters of the current consolidated fiscal year, Japan’s economy continued to recover as personal consumption and capital investment picked up. Overseas economies also continued to recover moderately overall, although geopolitical risks increased in the Middle East and East Asia.」

「Moreover, due to the moderate slowdown in China and the impact of geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, the outlook for the global economy remains difficult to view optimistically.」

「Overseas economies have continued to recover moderately overall, but uncertainty about the outlook has emerged. In the United States, personal consumption has remained firm and the economy had continued to recover, but the outlook now calls for protectionist economic policies. In Europe, the economy has also continued to recover, although moves toward negotiations over the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU have intensified and uncertainty about the outlook persists. In China, monetary easing measures have been implemented, but economic growth has continued to slow moderately, as reflected in the lower growth rate of capital investment. In Asia-Pacific, economic uncertainty has also persisted, particularly in the ASEAN countries.」

「Overseas economies have continued to recover moderately overall, but uncertainty about the outlook has emerged. In the United States, personal consumption has remained firm and the economy has continued to recover despite a slowdown in employment. In Europe, the economy has also continued to recover, although uncertainty about the outlook arising from negotiations over the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU persists. In China, monetary easing measures have been implemented, but economic growth has continued to slow moderately, as reflected in the lower growth rate of capital investment. In Asia-Pacific, economic uncertainty has also persisted, particularly in the ASEAN countries.」