Business Impact of China’s Economic Slowdown and Geopolitical Risks in Europe

「During the fiscal year, the global economy remained highly uncertain owing to heightened geopolitical risks associated with the impact of U.S. trade policy, stagnation in the Chinese economy and escalating tensions in the Middle East.」

「During the interim accounting period (1 May 2025 to 31 October 2025), uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy persisted, owing to uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policy, stagnation in the Chinese economy and the prolonged conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.」

「During the interim accounting period (1 May 2024 to 31 October 2024), the global economy maintained resilient growth, supported in part by easing inflation. However, uncertainty about the outlook persisted, owing to China’s economic slowdown and the prolonged geopolitical risks in Ukraine and the Middle East.」

「During the cumulative third quarter period (1 May 2023 to 31 January 2024), the global economy remained uncertain due to soaring energy prices and inflation resulting from the prolonged invasion of Ukraine by Russia and military conflicts in the Middle East. In Japan, the Noto Peninsula earthquake occurred on New Year's Day, causing extensive damage in the affected areas and casting a pall over the economy.」

「During the cumulative first quarter period (1 May 2023 to 31 July 2023), the global economy was gradually emerging from the impact of COVID-19, but concerns arose over an economic recession due to the effects of Russia's prolonged invasion of Ukraine, China's economic downturn and US-China trade friction.」

「The global economy was gradually emerging from the impact of COVID-19, but concerns arose over an economic recession due to the effects of Russia's prolonged invasion of Ukraine and financial instability in the US.」

「During the cumulative third quarter period (1 May 2022 to 31 January 2023), the global economy was gradually emerging from the impact of COVID-19, but current economic sentiment was trending downward due to the effects of Russia's prolonged invasion of Ukraine and monetary tightening in Europe and the US. In Japan, inflation driven mainly by higher import prices continued, and household finances remained under pressure from soaring food and energy prices, leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「During the cumulative second quarter period (1 May 2022 to 31 October 2022), the global economy was significantly affected by Russia's prolonged invasion of Ukraine and the impact of household financial pressure from sustained and intensifying inflationary pressures, dealing another severe blow to the global economy, which had been showing a partial recovery after the spread of COVID-19 subsided.」

「During the cumulative first quarter period (1 May 2022 to 31 July 2022), the global economy remained uncertain as it was significantly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's prolonged invasion of Ukraine. Inflation accelerated worldwide, particularly in Europe and the US, and countries shifted toward tighter monetary policy as a countermeasure.」

「The fiscal year was marked by repeated restrictions and easing of economic activity due to the impact of COVID-19, but economic activity began to recover, mainly in Europe and the US, in the second half as vaccinations became widespread. Electric vehicle adoption also accelerated in Europe and China, but the international situation remained uncertain because of shortages of components including semiconductors and soaring resource prices resulting from Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine.」

「During the cumulative third quarter period (1 May 2021 to 31 January 2022), the global economy remained unsettled, with different responses across countries and regions to the spread of Omicron, a new COVID-19 variant. Some countries reimposed restrictions on activity, while others eased restrictions and sought to establish societies that coexist with the virus. In the US, the FRB indicated a policy of raising interest rates in response to accelerating inflation, leading to an upward trend in interest rates in global financial markets, which is expected to have a major impact on the global economy. In Japan, the number of COVID-19 cases reached record-high levels across the country after increased movement of people over the year-end and New Year period, and many regions implemented priority preventive measures, causing the recovery in economic activity to slow.」

「During the cumulative second quarter period (1 May 2021 to 31 October 2021), although the number of COVID-19 cases was trending upward in some countries and regions, restrictions on activity were eased and economic activity became more active as vaccinations and policy support progressed, particularly in developed countries. As a result, demand continued to outstrip supply in various fields, and some countries began shifting toward monetary tightening because of inflation concerns.」

「During the cumulative first quarter period (1 May 2021 to 31 July 2021), the global economy continued to be significantly affected by the spread of COVID-19. Although progress with vaccinations in developed countries brought signs of economic recovery, concerns arose over renewed spread of infections caused by variants.」

「In Asia, China brought the spread of COVID-19 under control ahead of other countries and achieved record growth in the January-March quarter. In Japan, economic activity had begun to recover in some areas as restrictions were eased and the government's economic stimulus policies took effect, but concerns arose over a delayed economic recovery because a state of emergency was reimposed, primarily in the Tokyo metropolitan area, and vaccination efforts were delayed.」

「During the cumulative third quarter period (1 May 2020 to 31 January 2021), economic activity around the world was restricted by the spread of COVID-19, and uncertainty about the outlook continued. Although a new administration took office in the US, no major change from the previous administration's policies had occurred as of that time in relation to US-China trade friction. A significant improvement in US-China relations was not expected, and the current situation was expected to continue for the time being.」

「During the cumulative second quarter period (1 May 2020 to 31 October 2020), economic activity around the world was restricted by the spread of COVID-19, and uncertainty about the outlook continued. The outlook for US-China trade friction also remained difficult to assess, partly because of the impact of the presidential election.」

「During the cumulative first quarter period (1 May 2020 to 31 July 2020), economic activity around the world was restricted by the spread of COVID-19, increasing uncertainty about the outlook. Neither side has shown a willingness to make concessions over US-China trade friction, and the lack of prospects for improvement has continued.」

「During the fiscal year, the global economy became increasingly difficult to forecast as the UK left the EU on 31 January 2020 and trade negotiations with EU countries remained ahead in Europe, while, although the US and China had shown a willingness to compromise by partially reducing tariffs in their trade dispute, the spread of COVID-19 from the end of 2019 rapidly made the outlook more difficult to assess.」

「In Japan as well, concerns have arisen over the impact on the economy of US-China trade friction and the spread of COVID-19, increasing uncertainty about the outlook.」

「Neither side has shown a willingness to make concessions over US-China trade friction, and the situation in which there is no clear prospect of improvement has continued for an extended period. Although personal consumption in Japan has been gradually recovering, uncertainty about the outlook has increased due to the impact of the slowdown in China's economy resulting from US-China trade friction.」

「During the cumulative first quarter consolidated period (1 May 2019 to 31 July 2019), the global economy was trending downward in Europe as uncertainty over the UK's departure from the EU continued. Neither the US nor China showed a willingness to make concessions over their trade friction, and the lack of prospects for improvement persisted, with its effects beginning to emerge. In Japan, personal consumption was gradually recovering, but the effects of the slowdown in China's economy resulting from US-China trade friction and the Japan-South Korea dispute were also becoming evident, increasing uncertainty about the outlook.」

「Europe has been trending downward because uncertainty over the UK's departure from the EU has continued, while the US economy has remained solid but uncertainty has increased due to the impact of US-China trade friction.」

「During the cumulative third quarter consolidated period (1 May 2018 to 31 January 2019), the global economy was trending downward in Europe because uncertainty over the UK's departure from the EU continued and concerns over Italy's fiscal position resurfaced. Although the US economy remained solid, uncertainty about the outlook increased due to US-China trade friction and Apple's announcement of iPhone production cuts. In Japan, corporate capital investment remained firm, but some companies began announcing lower profits due to the impact of iPhone production cuts, and concerns emerged over the risk of a slowdown in China's economy resulting from US-China trade friction, making it necessary to monitor economic trends carefully going forward.」

「Overseas, the US economy has continued to benefit from improving corporate performance and solid personal consumption, while Europe's economy remains sluggish due to geopolitical risks including the simultaneous terrorist attacks in France and the refugee issue.」