Timing of M&A Deal Closings and Earnings Volatility from Large Deals
First written in FY2016. 15 of 28 entries say "Materialised", first in FY2018-Q1. Latest entry: 2026-07-30.
M&A Capital Partners moved to the "Worse" side of this theme in 2023, 3 years before the typical company in this theme (2026).
The whole theme swung hardest in 2026: 5 of 9 companies on the "Worse" side.
2 other companies' latest entry also says "Materialised".
- FY2026-H1Maintaining high transaction values excluding one-off factorsAnnual report
「Although large transaction closings had been concentrated in the first quarter in the same period of the previous year due to a one-off factor known as the minimum tax regime, we have been able to maintain transaction values at a similarly high level through our underlying capabilities.」
While explaining that large transactions had been concentrated in the first quarter in the same period of the previous year due to a one-off factor, the company indicates that it was also able to maintain high transaction values in the interim period. The explanation of the earnings volatility structure based on the concentration of large transactions and transaction values has been updated with another factor. - FY2025MaterialisedAnnual report
「However, as several transactions, including large transactions, shifted between periods, 18 transactions were closed, an increase of 1 from the same period of the previous year, while revenue including that of the company's Vietnamese subsidiary declined slightly to ¥1,183 million.」
At レコフ, shifts between periods, including several large transactions, actually occurred. The number of transactions closed was limited to 18 and revenue declined slightly. The risk of earnings volatility based on transaction timing has again materialized in actual results. - FY2025-H1MaterialisedAnnual report
「This was mainly because the average transaction value increased as a large number of large transactions were closed, which boosted revenue.」
Changes in the number of large transactions closed and the average transaction value substantially boosted revenue in the interim period, once again showing in actual results the risk that period earnings fluctuate based on transaction size. - FY2024-Q2MaterialisedAnnual report
「The number of transactions closed increased and was at a record-high level for the cumulative second quarter, but the decline in transaction values resulting from the closing of many relatively small transactions from the inventory of large transactions weighed on revenue. In addition, revenue had been boosted by a specific exceptionally large transaction in the previous fiscal year, which widened the decline in revenue.」
Although the number of transactions closed increased, lower transaction values from the closing of relatively small large transactions and the reversal of the exceptionally large transaction from the previous year caused revenue to decline 44.3% year on year. The risk of earnings volatility based on transaction size and closing timing has materialized in actual results. - FY2024-Q1MaterialisedAnnual report
「Although the number of transactions closed, including large transactions, increased, the average transaction value declined because many of the large transactions closed were relatively small, resulting in broadly flat performance.」
Although the number of transactions closed and the number of large transactions increased, the average transaction value declined because many of the large transactions were relatively small, leaving revenue broadly flat. Earnings volatility based on transaction size has emerged in the quarterly results. - FY2023MaterialisedAnnual report
「Completed M&A transactions (Number of transactions) 199 171 -28 Of which, transactions with total fees of ¥100 million or more per transaction (Number of transactions) 48 34 -14」
Although the number of transactions closed, including large transactions, declined, higher transaction values per deal resulted in a slight increase in revenue. Earnings volatility based on the status of large transaction closings has emerged in the full-year results. - FY2023-Q3MaterialisedAnnual report
「The Group's operating results were as follows: revenue increased by ¥1,833 million, or 13.0%, year on year to ¥15,988 million. The main factor was that larger transaction sizes boosted revenue despite a year-on-year decline in the number of transactions closed.」
Revenue increased by 13.0% as larger transaction sizes offset the decline in the number of transactions closed, demonstrating that earnings volatility based on transaction size has materialized in actual results. - FY2023-Q2MaterialisedAnnual report
「Revenue increased by ¥4,030 million, or 44.9%, year on year to ¥13,003 million. The main factor was that larger transaction sizes boosted revenue despite a year-on-year decline in the number of transactions closed.」
Although the number of transactions closed declined, larger transaction sizes increased revenue by 44.9%, showing that earnings volatility based on transaction size has materialized in actual results. - FY2023-Q1MaterialisedAnnual report
「This was primarily due to a year-on-year decline in the number of transactions closed, a decrease in the number of large transactions among all closed transactions, and an overall decline in transaction values.」
The number of large transactions fell from 10 in the same period of the previous year to 5, and transaction values also declined, resulting in a substantial decrease in revenue and earnings. The risk of earnings volatility based on large transaction closings has materialized in the results for the quarter. - FY2022RestatedAnnual report
「Factors that may materially affect the Group's operating results include market conditions, the competitive environment and the impact of changes in legislation. If these factors reduce the number or transaction value of closed transactions, they may affect operating results.」
This continues to show a structure in which the number and transaction value of closed transactions determine results. The increase in large transaction closings was the primary driver of higher revenue and earnings in the current fiscal year. - FY2022-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「The Group's operating results were as follows: revenue increased by ¥3,541,305 thousand, or 33.4%, year on year to ¥14,155,444 thousand. The main factor was an increase in the number of large transactions closed year on year.」
This quarter's revenue growth continues to show the structure in which changes in the number of large transactions closed affect period results. - FY2021-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「This was primarily due to an increase in the number of transactions closed year on year, particularly the increase in large transactions closed from 14 to 22.」
The increase in large transactions closed boosted period results, continuing to show a structure in which earnings fluctuate depending on transaction size and closing terms. - FY2021-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「This was primarily due to an increase in the number of transactions closed year on year, particularly the increase in large transactions closed from 9 to 17.」
The increase in large transactions closed boosted results, continuing to show a structure in which period earnings fluctuate depending on transaction size and closing timing. - FY2021-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「This was primarily due to an increase in the number of transactions closed year on year, particularly the increase in large transactions closed from 1 to 8.」
Following the decline in results caused by the decrease in large transactions in the previous year, the increase in large transaction closings substantially boosted quarterly results, continuing to show earnings volatility based on transaction size. - FY2020MaterialisedAnnual report
「The Group's operating results were affected by the loss of large transaction closings in the first consolidated quarter, which created a trough in performance, and by stalled progress on some transactions due to the impact of COVID-19. Although 49 transactions were closed in the fourth consolidated quarter, a quarterly record, this was insufficient to recover to the earnings forecast. Revenue therefore declined by ¥721,075 thousand, or 5.7%, year on year to ¥11,871,202 thousand, resulting in lower revenue.」
The loss of large transactions, stalled transaction progress and shifts in closing timing were reflected in annual results. Although 49 transactions were closed in the fourth quarter, this was insufficient to recover the full-year decline in revenue and earnings. - FY2020-Q2MaterialisedAnnual report
「This was primarily due to a year-on-year decline in the number of transactions closed, particularly the decline in large transactions with high transaction values, which fell from 15 to 9.」
The number of large transactions closed fell from 15 in the same period of the previous year to 9, and volatility from transaction size and closing timing materialized as lower revenue and earnings for the cumulative second quarter. Meanwhile, large transactions progressed during the second quarter alone, resulting in record quarterly revenue. - FY2020-Q1MaterialisedAnnual report
「The main factor was a decline in the number of completed engagements year on year, particularly the decrease in large engagements from 9 to 1.」
The number of large transactions closed fell from 9 in the same period of the previous year to 1, and the risk that the number and presence of large transactions significantly affect quarterly results has materialized as an actual decline in revenue and earnings. - FY2019RestatedAnnual report
「Although our Group's business model does not depend on any particular company, the scale of the business remains small and the impact of each transaction on revenue is significant. Consequently, delays in the scheduled closing dates and other factors may affect operating results.」
While denying dependence on any particular company, this reconfirms the risk that the significant impact of each transaction may cause earnings to fluctuate due to delays in closing and other factors. - FY2019-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「As a result, although the number of transactions was in line with the same quarter of the previous year, strong closings of large transactions resulted in revenue increasing by ¥2,286,169 thousand, or 46.6%, year on year to ¥7,187,137 thousand.」
Even with the number of transactions closed remaining flat, large transaction closings substantially increased revenue, continuing to show earnings volatility based on transaction size and closing terms. - FY2019-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「Although the number of transactions was below the same quarter of the previous year, strong closings of large transactions resulted in revenue increasing by ¥1,603,745 thousand, or 70.2%, year on year to ¥3,886,800 thousand.」
Although the number of transactions closed was below the same period of the previous year, large transaction closings substantially boosted revenue, continuing to show earnings volatility based on transaction size and closing terms. - FY2018MaterialisedAnnual report
「The Group's operating results were affected by the loss of the exceptionally large transaction recorded in the previous consolidated fiscal year, which could not be offset by an increase in the number of transactions. Revenue therefore decreased by ¥318,802 thousand, or 3.8%, year on year to ¥8,018,443 thousand.」
The loss of the exceptionally large transaction from the previous year and the carryover into the following period of transactions scheduled to close at the fiscal year-end caused volatility from transaction size and closing timing to emerge in full-year results. - FY2018-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「Regarding revenue, our company performed strongly and remained above the same period of the previous year, while the impact of a large transaction closed by レコフ in the same period of the previous year resulted in our Group's progress being below the same period of the previous year.」
The reversal of the large transaction at レコフ in the same period of the previous year continues to show earnings volatility from the presence or absence of large transactions, with Group revenue below the same period of the previous year. - FY2018-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「Regarding revenue, our company performed strongly and remained above the same period of the previous year, while レコフ's progress was below the same period of the previous year due to the impact of a large industry-restructuring transaction in the same period of the previous year.」
At レコフ, revenue progress was below the same period of the previous year as a result of the reversal of the large industry-restructuring transaction recorded in the prior-year period, and earnings volatility from the presence or absence of large transactions continues to be evident. - FY2018-Q1MaterialisedAnnual report
「Regarding revenue, our company performed strongly and remained above the same period of the previous year, while レコフ's progress was below the same period of the previous year due to the impact of a large industry-restructuring transaction in the same period of the previous year.」
At レコフ, revenue progress was below the same period of the previous year as a result of the reversal of the large industry-restructuring transaction recorded in the prior-year period, showing that the presence or absence of large transactions has translated into actual earnings volatility. - FY2017RestatedAnnual report
「In particular, when handling large transactions, our Group's earnings plan may diverge significantly depending on whether the transactions close successfully.」
This reconfirms the risk that earnings may fluctuate from period to period depending on the timing and success or failure of large transaction closings. - FY2016First statedAnnual report
「When handling large transactions, our earnings plan may diverge significantly depending on whether the transactions close successfully.」
This indicates that quarterly and annual earnings may fluctuate due to delays in closing transactions and the success or failure of large transactions.