Uncertainty over the Outlook from a Stronger Yen and Falling Stock Prices, Stagnant Personal Consumption, the Chinese Economy and Resource Prices

「During the interim consolidated fiscal period under review, the Japanese economy remained on a moderate recovery trend, supported by improvements in corporate earnings and employment and income conditions. In the global economy, China experienced a gradual slowdown, while other countries and regions continued to recover gradually. Meanwhile, the outlook remained uncertain regarding the impact of conditions in the Middle East.」

「During the interim consolidated fiscal period under review, the global economy maintained solid growth, but concerns increased over the potential downward pressure on economic activity from the tariff policies of the US Trump administration, leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「During the consolidated fiscal year under review, the global economy entered a gradual recovery trend, led by the US, although uncertainty temporarily increased due to the US presidential election. Meanwhile, economic recovery slowed in some regions and industries due to higher resource prices resulting from geopolitical risks, including the prolonged situation in Ukraine, and stagnation in China's property market. In Japan, private consumption grew gradually and remained strong, supported by government stimulus measures. However, sluggish external demand and higher prices restrained the recovery, as exports slowed due to weak consumption in Europe and China and the impact of high US interest rates.」

「During the interim consolidated fiscal period under review, the global economy avoided a significant slowdown and was showing signs of returning to a growth path, albeit gradually. However, the outlook remained uncertain due to political instability caused by prolonged conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and surging energy prices.」

「During the first three months of the fiscal year under review, the global economy remained uncertain due to continued monetary tightening resulting from prolonged inflation, a slowdown in the Chinese economy, the prolonged situation in Ukraine and concerns over the impact on resource prices from escalating tensions in the Middle East. In Japan, the economy showed signs of recovery, including increased inbound consumption and improvements in employment conditions, but lacked momentum due to sluggish real wage growth resulting from higher prices and the slowdown in overseas economies.」

「During the first nine months of the fiscal year under review, the global economy showed signs of a slowdown due to prolonged monetary tightening in Europe and the US caused by continued high inflation and the prolonged stagnation of China's housing market. In Japan, economic activity was normalizing due to more active consumption under the post-pandemic environment, a recovery in inbound demand and the resolution of the semiconductor shortage. However, the economy lacked momentum because of the slowdown in overseas economies and a decline in private consumption caused by surging prices.」

「During the first six months of the fiscal year under review, the global economy slowed due to concerns over financial-system instability worldwide arising from the failure of a midsize US bank and management problems at a major Swiss bank, as well as restrictions on private consumption and production activity caused by surging prices, although a recovery in the Chinese economy was expected. In Japan, inbound demand was on an increasing trend due to the progress of living with COVID-19 and the significant easing of border-control measures, but the outlook remained uncertain due to the slowdown in overseas economies and a decline in private consumption caused by surging prices.」

「During the consolidated fiscal year under review, economic expansion following the pandemic was expected, but the global economy showed increasingly clear signs of a slowdown toward year-end due to the worsening energy crisis resulting from the prolonged Russian invasion of Ukraine and stagnant economic activity under China's zero-COVID policy. In Japan, conditions remained extremely difficult due to the spread of the Omicron variant, higher prices caused by yen depreciation following the widening interest-rate differential between Japan and the US, and declining exports resulting from deteriorating overseas economies.」

「During the first nine months of the fiscal year under review, the global economy showed increasingly clear signs of a slowdown due to the worsening energy crisis resulting from the prolonged Russian invasion of Ukraine and the stagnation of economic activity caused by China's zero-COVID policy. In Japan, the impact remained uncertain, including higher prices caused by yen depreciation following the widening interest-rate differential between Japan and the US.」

「During the first six months of the fiscal year under review, concerns over an economic slowdown increased due to higher resource prices and inflation resulting from the prolonged Russian invasion of Ukraine and logistics disruptions caused by China's zero-COVID policy. In Japan, the impact remained uncertain, including higher prices caused by yen depreciation following the widening interest-rate differential between Japan and the US.」

「During the first three months of the fiscal year under review, uncertainty over the global economy increased due to the spread of the Omicron variant and advancing inflation. Russia's military invasion of Ukraine then triggered a rapid increase in energy and raw material prices and higher inflation, further raising concerns over an economic slowdown. In Japan, although economic recovery was expected as restrictions on activity were eased, including the lifting of priority preventive measures against the spread of COVID-19, the outlook remained uncertain due to the impact of higher resource prices on corporate performance and delays in the recovery of private consumption caused by rising prices.」

「During the first nine months of the fiscal year under review, the Japanese economy had remained strong, particularly in manufacturing, due to progress toward normalizing economic activity as COVID-19 vaccinations became widespread and exports increased as the global economy recovered. However, in the second half, a sharp increase in demand and factory closures, particularly in Southeast Asia, resulting from the spread of COVID-19 caused a global semiconductor shortage and disruptions in parts supply chains, leaving the economy lacking momentum. The global economy also became uncertain as inflation accelerated rapidly, particularly in developed and emerging economies.」

「During the first six months of the fiscal year under review, the global economy moved toward recovery, supported by progress in COVID-19 vaccinations, particularly in developed countries, and additional fiscal support in the US. In Japan, face-to-face service industries remained weak due to the impact of states of emergency, while manufacturing remained strong, particularly in exports, against a backdrop of the global recovery. However, emerging and developing countries continued to be affected by COVID-19, leaving the timing of a global economic recovery uncertain.」

「During the first three months of the fiscal year under review, the global economy remained in a difficult situation as highly infectious variants spread while countries implemented measures to contain the virus, including restrictions on economic activity. Restrictions on movement were tightened, particularly in Europe. Japan also experienced a renewed spread of COVID-19, with states of emergency reimposed mainly in the Tokyo metropolitan and Kansai regions, leaving the timing of the economic recovery uncertain.」

「Until COVID-19 is brought under control, the economic recovery may be delayed, and issues may arise not only concerning companies' financial strength but also the expansion of national and local government debt against a backdrop of the fiscal policies and financial support provided by countries during the emergency caused by the pandemic.」

「During the first nine months of the fiscal year under review, the Japanese economy remained in an extremely difficult situation. Although it was on a gradual recovery trend from its low point in May, when the state of emergency declared over the spread of COVID-19 was lifted nationwide, private consumption and corporate capital investment had not recovered. In the global economy, some improvement was seen, including a rapid recovery in economic activity in China and the US and increased IT-related demand, but the global outlook remained uncertain as the spread of infections showed no signs of slowing.」

「During the first six months of the fiscal year under review, the Japanese economy deteriorated sharply due to the spread of COVID-19. Although the infection situation appeared to stabilize in the second half and the gradual lifting of restrictions on socioeconomic activity raised hopes for an economic recovery, infections began spreading again, particularly in urban areas, leaving the outlook uncertain. Globally, fiscal spending on an unprecedented scale was implemented to contain the spread of infections and achieve an early economic recovery, but concerns grew over further economic deterioration as the spread of infections showed no signs of slowing.」

「During the first three months of the fiscal year under review, the global economy became increasingly uncertain as the spread of COVID-19, amid concerns over a US recession and a slowdown in the Chinese economy caused by US-China trade frictions, led countries to impose lockdowns and restrictions on movement. The Japanese economy also entered an extremely difficult situation due to declining exports resulting from the contraction of global production activity and weak private consumption caused by restrictions on people's activities, including requests to refrain from going out.」

「Private consumption temporarily declined due to the consumption tax increase, while corporate capital investment remained firm against a backdrop of labor shortages. Meanwhile, the global economy weakened as concerns over a US recession and a slowdown in the Chinese economy caused by US-China trade frictions emerged. In addition, numerous geopolitical risks, including the confusion surrounding the UK's withdrawal from the EU and escalating tensions between the US and Iran, left the outlook uncertain.」

「Meanwhile, the global economy showed clear signs of an overall slowdown due to the prolonged trade issues between the US and China and geopolitical uncertainty.」

「During the first six months of the fiscal year under review, the global economy showed clear signs of an overall slowdown due to concerns over uncertainty caused by trade issues between the US and China. In Japan, private consumption recovered as employment and income conditions improved, and capital investment aimed at labor saving remained firm against a backdrop of a worsening labor shortage. However, the economy lacked momentum, particularly in exports, as a result of the global slowdown.」

「During the first three months of the fiscal year under review, the global economy showed clear signs of an overall slowdown due to the impact of the US-China trade war. In Japan, private consumption remained firm on the back of strong corporate earnings, but the economy lacked momentum due to sluggish exports resulting from the global slowdown.」

「During the consolidated fiscal year under review, the Japanese economy had remained firm due to improvements in corporate earnings and employment and income conditions, but shifted toward weakness toward year-end as concerns over a US economic recession and a slowdown in the Chinese economy caused by US-China trade frictions emerged. In addition, political uncertainties, including the increasingly difficult issue of the UK's withdrawal from the EU, remained significant, leaving the global economy uncertain.」

「Meanwhile, uncertainty over the outlook for the global economy has increased, including due to concerns over US-China trade tensions.」

「Overseas, the global economy maintained a gradual recovery trend, led by the US, despite an uncertain outlook due to geopolitical risks associated with US trade policy, political developments in Europe, and conditions in the Middle East and North Korea.」

「During the three-month period ended with the first quarter of the consolidated fiscal year under review, the Japanese economy continued on a gradual recovery trend, supported by strong capital investment underpinned by high corporate earnings and a recovery in personal consumption resulting from improvements in the labor market. Overseas, the US maintained growth on the back of increased capital investment and consumption, while China and Europe also remained firm. Meanwhile, concerns over the impact of US protectionist trade policies on the global economy contributed to an uncertain outlook.」

「During the consolidated fiscal year under review, the Japanese economy remained on a gradual recovery trend, supported by improvements in corporate earnings, particularly among export-oriented companies, and increased personal consumption underpinned by strong employment and income conditions and a stable dollar/yen exchange rate. Overseas, although there were concerns including political developments and economic policies in Europe and the US and heightened geopolitical tensions surrounding North Korea's nuclear development, the economic expansion continued mainly in the US, Europe and China.」

「During the nine-month consolidated period under review, the Japanese economy remained on a gradual recovery track as improvements continued in corporate earnings and employment and income conditions, supported by a stable dollar/yen exchange rate. Overseas, despite factors creating uncertainty about the outlook, including the direction of future US policies, the UK's withdrawal from the EU and heightened geopolitical tensions surrounding North Korea's nuclear development, the economy generally remained on a gradual recovery track.」

「During the six-month consolidated period under review, the Japanese economy entered a gradual recovery phase, supported by a stable dollar/yen exchange rate, improving corporate earnings, particularly among exporters, and improvements in employment and income conditions. Overseas, despite factors creating uncertainty about the outlook, including the direction of US protectionist policies and rising global geopolitical risks, the economy generally remained on a gradual recovery track.」

「Overseas, the outlook remained uncertain against a backdrop of uncertainty over the direction of economic policies advocated by the new US administration, the UK's withdrawal from the EU and rising global geopolitical risks.」

「During the consolidated fiscal year under review, the Japanese economy lacked strength from the beginning of the year due to sluggish production and exports resulting from the yen's appreciation, but moved toward a gradual recovery in the second half as the yen weakened and crude oil prices recovered. Meanwhile, although the US economy remained firm, the global economy continued to face an uncertain outlook due to political developments in Europe, the UK's withdrawal from the EU and downside risks to economic conditions in China and emerging economies.」

「Although the economy lacked strength due to sluggish production and exports as the yen continued to appreciate from the beginning of the year, as well as stagnant private consumption, it remained relatively firm. Meanwhile, the global economy remained uncertain, against a backdrop of downside risks to economic conditions in emerging and resource-producing countries and the UK's withdrawal from the EU.」

「The economy lacked strength due to factors including weaker corporate earnings resulting from the yen's appreciation and falling share prices since the beginning of the year, as well as stagnant private consumption. Meanwhile, the global economy remained uncertain, against a backdrop of concerns over the outlook for the Chinese economy and weak prices for resources such as crude oil.」