Komori
Osaka Steel (5449) · RiskWorsened

Risk of weak demand, China’s overproduction, and fluctuations in steel product and scrap prices

First written in FY2016. 28 of 38 entries say "Worsened", first in FY2017-Q1. Latest entry: 2026-07-30.

38entries
11years
4from disclosures
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How it moved
ProgressHeldSoftenedWorseWorsenedFY2017-Q1 – FY2018WorsenedFY2020 – FY2023-Q2WorsenedFY2025 – 2026-07-302016: 320162017: 320172018: 420182019: 420192020: 420202021: 320212022: 420222023: 320232024: 320242025: 220252026: 52026
Same theme, other companies
Downward pressure on steel market prices from China’s excess production and low-priced importsA theme 14 companies write about · 16 as a headwind · 0 as a tailwind

Osaka Steel moved to the "Worse" side of this theme in 2016, 4 years before the typical company in this theme (2020).

The whole theme swung hardest in 2024: 8 of 13 companies on the "Worse" side.

3 other companies' latest entry also says "Worsened".

Ridges = years it wrote progress, valleys = years it wrote worse. Most hopeful companies at the back. Drag to turn, scroll to zoom, right-drag to pan. On a phone, two fingers turn and pinch to zoom; one finger scrolls the page.
Full recordFilings, disclosures and news, newest first
  1. FY2026WorsenedAnnual report

    「Recently, there has also been a risk that procurement prices, including energy prices, could surge because of the prolonged situation in the Middle East, potentially affecting the Group's performance.」

    In addition to the previous weakness in demand and fluctuations in scrap prices, the company explicitly identifies the risk of a surge in procurement prices, including energy prices, due to the prolonged situation in the Middle East.
  2. FY2026-H1WorsenedAnnual report

    「During the first half, the domestic economy continued to face downward pressure from weaker consumer sentiment caused by high prices, stagnant industrial production, and the impact of U.S. tariff policy. Construction demand, our main end-market, has been slower than expected to recover from its weakness caused by surging material and equipment prices and labor shortages. The environment also remained challenging as electricity prices and logistics costs rose further.」

    The recovery in construction demand has been slower than expected, while downward pressure from U.S. tariff policy and further increases in electricity prices and logistics costs have added to the pressure. The deterioration in the demand and cost environment is described as having occurred during the first half.
  3. FY2025WorsenedAnnual report

    「Our operating environment is becoming increasingly challenging, as no substantial recovery in construction demand is expected and further increases in electricity tariffs and other costs are anticipated. In addition, demand trends in the Indonesian business have become uncertain because the government's policy shift reduced the infrastructure development budget, and the challenging operating environment is expected to continue.」

    The company newly describes the lack of expectations for a substantial recovery in construction demand, further increases in electricity tariffs and other costs, and uncertainty in demand resulting from cuts to Indonesia's infrastructure budget.
  4. FY2025-H1RestatedAnnual report

    「Domestic steel demand has remained at a low level because construction work has stagnated under the impact of higher prices and labor shortages. Demand in East and Southeast Asia, our main export markets, has also been weak, as construction investment has been restrained by higher interest rates resulting from monetary tightening in each country. From a cost perspective, although iron scrap prices, the primary raw material, have fluctuated sharply with exchange rate movements, there has been no change in the structural conditions keeping them elevated. In addition, higher electricity and logistics costs resulted in the continuation of a challenging cost environment.」

    Weak demand in Japan, East Asia and Southeast Asia, structurally elevated iron scrap prices, and higher electricity and logistics costs have continued. No material change in the risk assessment from the previous fiscal year is indicated.
  5. FY2024WorsenedAnnual report

    「Domestic steel demand is expected to recover to some extent after the COVID-19 pandemic subsides, but not to its previous level, and is recognized as undergoing structural contraction.」

    The company explicitly recognizes that domestic demand, in addition to its previous weakness and sluggish recovery, will not return to its former level after the pandemic subsides and will contract structurally.
  6. FY2024-Q3RestatedAnnual report

    「Meanwhile, the Group's operating environment became challenging because of weak demand for construction steel, persistently high iron scrap and fuel and raw material prices, and surging material prices caused by higher construction material and labor costs.」

    Weak construction demand, elevated iron scrap and fuel and raw material prices, and surging material prices caused by higher construction material and labor costs have continued. No further deterioration from the cost and demand environment reported through the previous quarter is explicitly indicated.
  7. FY2024-Q2WorsenedAnnual report

    「However, domestic demand for steel products remained below the previous year's level because demand for construction steel, one of our main end-markets, was affected by higher construction costs resulting from surging material, labor and logistics costs. From a cost perspective, in addition to persistently high fuel and raw material prices, the effects of rising prices and labor costs spread to various material costs, repair expenses and subcontracting expenses, among others, resulting in a challenging environment in which manufacturing costs rose further.」

    Demand for construction steel fell below the previous year's level, while manufacturing costs, including various material, repair and subcontracting expenses, rose further as elevated fuel and raw material prices and higher prices and labor costs fed through to costs. The risk materialized in the operating environment during the period.
  8. FY2024-Q1RestatedAnnual report

    「During the first quarter, the Japanese economy and the Indonesian economy, where we operate, both recovered modestly. However, the Group's operating environment remained challenging, as construction demand continued to be weak, as in the previous fiscal year, while iron scrap and electricity prices remained elevated.」

    The challenging operating environment caused by weak construction demand and elevated iron scrap and electricity prices has continued from the previous fiscal year. No quantitative risk assessment is provided, but the conditions are described as the actual operating environment.
  9. FY2023-Q3RestatedAnnual report

    「Meanwhile, the operating environment surrounding the Group became challenging as the recovery in demand for construction steel, its main end-market, lacked momentum for small and medium-sized projects, while manufacturing costs increased substantially because iron scrap prices, its primary raw material, remained elevated and higher crude oil and gas prices increased energy purchase costs.」

    The weak recovery in steel demand from small and medium-sized projects, elevated scrap prices, higher energy purchase costs due to surging crude oil and gas prices, and increased manufacturing costs have continued.
  10. FY2023-Q2WorsenedAnnual report

    「Meanwhile, domestic steel demand generally declined year on year, particularly in the automotive sector, while demand from the construction industry, one of our main end-markets, remained weak. Construction demand in Indonesia likewise remained at a low level. Under these conditions, the domestic price of iron scrap, the primary raw material, surged to above ¥60,000 per tonne for the first time since 2008, while rising resource prices also increased the manufacturing cost burden,」

    In addition to weak construction demand in Japan and Indonesia, iron scrap prices surged to above ¥60,000 per tonne for the first time since 2008, resulting in higher resource prices and a greater manufacturing cost burden.
  11. FY2023-Q1WorsenedAnnual report

    「Although there were signs of recovery in demand for construction steel, its main end-market, the recovery in small and medium-sized projects remained sluggish. In addition, manufacturing costs increased as resource and energy prices rose substantially year on year, and the challenging operating environment continued.」

    Although demand in the construction market showed signs of recovery, the recovery in small and medium-sized projects was sluggish, while manufacturing costs actually increased because of the substantial rise in resource and energy prices, and the challenging environment continued.
  12. FY2022WorsenedAnnual report

    「Recently, raw material prices have remained high owing to the recovery of the domestic and overseas economies, the trend toward greater use of iron scrap in decarbonization efforts, and the worsening situation in Eastern Europe, among other factors.」

    The company additionally identifies the risk that raw material prices will remain high because of increased demand for iron scrap associated with decarbonization and the worsening situation in Eastern Europe, among other factors.
  13. FY2022-Q3WorsenedAnnual report

    「Although demand in the construction market, its main end-market, has been recovering, the recovery in small and medium-sized projects remains sluggish, particularly outside large projects. In addition, manufacturing costs rose substantially because iron scrap prices, its primary raw material, remained elevated and higher crude oil and gas prices increased energy purchase costs.」

    While demand is recovering, led by large projects, the recovery in small and medium-sized projects is sluggish, and manufacturing costs have risen substantially because iron scrap prices remained elevated and crude oil and gas prices surged.
  14. FY2022-Q1WorsenedAnnual report

    「The operating environment for the Group also remained challenging, as the recovery in demand for construction steel, its main end-market, lacked momentum, while a sharp rise in the price of iron scrap, its primary raw material, increased manufacturing costs.」

    Although demand for construction steel is recovering weakly, iron scrap prices have surged and manufacturing costs have increased, with the challenging environment continuing.
  15. FY2021WorsenedAnnual report

    「Regarding the business environment surrounding our Group going forward, steel demand is expected to recover as economic activity recovers from the sharp downturn caused by COVID-19. However, over the medium to long term, domestic demand for construction and civil engineering steel is expected to contract structurally and is not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels even after the pandemic ends. On the cost side, challenging conditions are also expected to continue, including persistently high iron scrap prices as China resumes scrap imports.」

    In addition to the decline in demand caused by COVID-19, the company recognizes that domestic demand will structurally contract over the medium to long term, and expects raw material prices to remain elevated as China resumes scrap imports. The impact of demand and raw material price risks is described as long-term and structural.
  16. FY2021-Q3WorsenedAnnual report

    「Our Group's business environment also deteriorated significantly because domestic steel demand remained weak and iron scrap prices, the main raw material, surged.」

    The Company states that, in addition to weak domestic steel demand, iron scrap prices surged, causing the business environment to deteriorate significantly. The risk has materialized in the actual business environment.
  17. FY2021-Q2WorsenedAnnual report

    「In the ordinary steel electric arc furnace industry to which our Group belongs, demand for construction and civil engineering steel, the main source of demand, remained weak because of the spread of COVID-19. In addition, lower steel selling prices and higher iron scrap prices, the main raw material, caused the business environment to deteriorate significantly.」

    In addition to weak construction and civil engineering demand caused by COVID-19, steel selling prices fell and iron scrap prices rose, resulting in a significant deterioration in the business environment.
  18. FY2021-Q1WorsenedAnnual report

    「Our business environment also deteriorated significantly because of weak demand for construction steel, our main source of demand, lower selling prices, and sharp fluctuations in iron scrap prices, the main raw material, together with sharp foreign exchange fluctuations in Indonesia, where our overseas subsidiary is located.」

    The Company states that the business environment deteriorated significantly because of weak construction demand, lower selling prices and sharp fluctuations in iron scrap prices, compounded by foreign exchange fluctuations in Indonesia.
  19. FY2020MaterialisedAnnual report

    「In addition, the recent stagnation of domestic and overseas economic activity resulting from the spread of COVID-19 is having a significant impact on steel demand. This may adversely affect our Group's operating results.」

    The Company states that, in addition to the existing risk of demand fluctuations, stagnation in economic activity caused by COVID-19 and its impact on steel demand have actually materialized.
  20. FY2020-Q3RestatedAnnual report

    「In the ordinary steel electric arc furnace industry to which our Group belongs, iron scrap market prices, the main raw material, softened from April, but demand for construction and civil engineering steel, the main source of demand, remained weak. Prices for auxiliary materials and key supplies remained high, resulting in continued challenging business conditions.」

    The Company states that demand for construction and civil engineering steel remained weak and auxiliary material and key supply prices remained high, while iron scrap market prices softened from April.
  21. FY2020-Q2Continued weak demand and persistently high material costs, with softer scrap pricesAnnual report

    「In the steel industry, domestic demand for construction and civil engineering steel remained weak, while demand from manufacturers, including industrial machinery makers, also remained subdued. Overseas steel market prices trended lower as billet market prices softened. In the ordinary steel electric arc furnace industry to which our Group belongs, iron scrap market prices, the main raw material, softened from April, but demand for construction and civil engineering steel, the main source of demand, remained weak. Prices for auxiliary materials and key supplies remained high, resulting in continued challenging business conditions.」

    The Company states that weak demand for construction and civil engineering steel, persistently high auxiliary material and key supply prices, and a downward trend in overseas billet market prices continued, while iron scrap market prices softened from April.
  22. FY2020-Q1WorsenedAnnual report

    「In the ordinary steel electric arc furnace industry to which our Group belongs, business conditions were challenging because domestic steel demand remained weak and manufacturing costs remained high as a result of surging key supply prices.」

    Weak domestic steel demand and persistently high manufacturing costs caused by surging key supply prices were identified as the challenging business conditions in the quarter.
  23. FY2019WorsenedAnnual report

    「In the ordinary steel electric arc furnace industry to which our Group belongs, demand conditions remained firm, but manufacturing costs increased because scrap and auxiliary material prices, the main and auxiliary raw materials, remained high, key supply prices rose further and energy prices increased. In addition, transportation costs were trending higher because of labor shortages and other factors, resulting in continued challenging business conditions.」

    While demand conditions were firm, cost-related risks expanded because scrap and auxiliary material prices remained high, key supply prices surged further, and energy prices and transportation costs increased.
  24. FY2019-Q3RestatedAnnual report

    「In the ordinary steel electric arc furnace industry to which our Group belongs, demand for construction and civil engineering remained firm, but manufacturing costs were forced higher by increases in key supply prices.」

    While demand for construction and civil engineering remained firm, manufacturing costs continued to increase because of higher key supply prices. The challenging cost environment identified through the previous quarter continued.
  25. FY2019-Q2WorsenedAnnual report

    「In the ordinary steel electric arc furnace industry to which we belong, steel demand remained firm, but manufacturing costs increased because scrap prices, the main raw material, remained high and began to rise further after the summer, while high prices for auxiliary materials, key supplies and fuel continued, resulting in continued challenging business conditions.」

    While steel demand remained firm, scrap prices rose after staying high, and manufacturing costs increased as high prices for auxiliary materials, key supplies and fuel continued. Cost-related risks have become more pronounced.
  26. FY2019-Q1Firming demand coexists with rising costsAnnual report

    「In the ordinary steel electric arc furnace industry to which our Group belongs, demand for construction and civil engineering remained firm, but manufacturing costs increased because of higher energy unit prices and key supply prices, resulting in continued challenging business conditions.」

    While demand for construction and civil engineering remained firm, manufacturing costs continued to increase because of higher energy unit prices and key supply prices.
  27. FY2018WorsenedAnnual report

    「Although domestic construction demand, which accounts for the majority of demand for our business, is expected to continue declining over the medium to long term, concerns remain about further increases in auxiliary material prices, key supply prices, energy prices and transportation costs, together with volatility in scrap prices, and challenging conditions are expected to continue. In the ordinary steel electric arc furnace industry to which our Group belongs, demand remained firm, but costs increased significantly because scrap prices rose and remained high, while auxiliary material prices, key supply prices and transportation costs also increased.」

    Demand was firm during the period, but manufacturing costs increased significantly because of higher prices for scrap, auxiliary materials and key supplies, as well as higher transportation costs. Concerns about a medium- to long-term decline in domestic construction demand were also explicitly stated.
  28. FY2018-Q3WorsenedAnnual report

    「In the ordinary steel electric arc furnace industry to which we belong, demand conditions improved, but manufacturing costs increased because of surging prices for scrap, the main raw material, as well as auxiliary materials and key supplies, resulting in continued challenging business conditions.」

    While demand conditions improved, scrap prices as well as auxiliary material and key supply prices surged, increasing manufacturing costs. Cost-related risks continue to worsen.
  29. FY2018-Q2WorsenedAnnual report

    「In the ordinary steel electric arc furnace industry to which we belong, manufacturing costs increased because scrap prices, the main raw material, surged and remained high, while auxiliary material prices and other costs also rose. Although we worked to improve selling prices with the understanding of our customers, margins contracted, resulting in continued challenging business conditions.」

    Scrap prices surged and remained high, auxiliary material prices rose sharply, and manufacturing costs increased. Margins contracted despite efforts to improve selling prices. Although overseas steel export market conditions were said to be improving because China's steel exports declined, the cost environment deteriorated.
  30. FY2018-Q1WorsenedAnnual report

    「In the ordinary steel electric arc furnace industry to which our Group belongs, domestic steel demand remained sluggish, while manufacturing costs increased because of higher energy unit prices and auxiliary material prices, resulting in continued challenging business conditions.」

    The current situation is described as weak domestic steel demand and higher manufacturing costs resulting from increased auxiliary material prices, with challenging conditions continuing. Although not quantified, weak demand and higher raw material prices are reflected in the actual business environment.
  31. FY2017-Q3WorsenedAnnual report

    「In the ordinary steel electric arc furnace industry to which we belong, demand for construction steel in the domestic market was recovering, but scrap prices, the main raw material, began to rise again as blast furnace raw material prices surged. The impact of overproduction by China's steel industry also continued, resulting in continued challenging business conditions.」

    While demand for construction steel showed signs of recovery, scrap prices began to rise again and the impact of overproduction by China's steel industry continued, resulting in continued challenging conditions.
  32. FY2017-Q2WorsenedAnnual report

    「In the steel industry, domestic steel demand, including demand for construction, remained generally subdued. The export environment for steel was challenging because the yen appreciated more than expected, in addition to the impact of overproduction and high-volume exports by China's steel industry. In the ordinary steel electric arc furnace industry to which we belong, scrap prices, the main raw material, remained stable, but domestic steel demand remained weak and the export environment deteriorated, resulting in continued challenging business conditions.」

    The Company describes weak domestic steel demand, yen appreciation, and a deterioration in the export environment due to China's overproduction and high-volume exports as the continuing challenging business environment.
  33. FY2017-Q1WorsenedAnnual report

    「In the ordinary steel electric arc furnace industry to which we belong, scrap prices, the main raw material, turned downward after rising, and domestic steel demand for construction and civil engineering showed signs of recovery. However, overseas steel market prices fluctuated sharply because of China's overproduction and high-volume exports, resulting in continued challenging business conditions.」

    The Company describes sharp fluctuations in overseas steel market prices caused by China's overproduction and high-volume exports, together with falling scrap prices, as the current challenging business environment.
  34. FY2016First statedAnnual report

    「The domestic ordinary steel electric arc furnace industry has excess supply capacity relative to demand, creating a risk of a collapse in selling prices due to overproduction and excessive sales. There are also risks of declines in overseas steel market prices resulting from increased steel production in East Asian countries, particularly China, as well as surges and sharp volatility in the prices of iron scrap, the main raw material, and ferroalloys and other auxiliary materials.」

    The Company lists excess domestic supply capacity, declining overseas market prices, including in China, and volatility in scrap and ferroalloy prices.
Moved together

"Maintaining profitability amid declines in sales volume and revenue" moved the same way as this thread, in the same document, in 10 of its 38 moves.

1097765★123456
  1. ★This thread
  2. 1Maintaining profitability amid declines in sales volume and revenue10×
  3. 2Risk of Electricity Supply Constraints and Higher Electricity Tariffs9×
  4. 3KOS Indonesia Project: Plant Start-Up7×
  5. 4Indonesia Foreign Exchange, Political and Economic, and Legal Environment Risks7×
  6. 5KOS Records a Loss6×
  7. 6Performance-Linked Shareholder Returns and Semiannual Dividends5×

★ is this thread; numbers match the list above. The number on a line is how many documents both moved the same way in; lines between the other threads count the documents they moved together in too. Threads that move together often sit closer.

When this could move next
Osaka Steel's next results are scheduled for 2026-11-04. Read the earnings preview It last moved in the Earnings forecast revision of 2026-07-30: "Worsened".
News
No news is linked to this thread yet. When an article touches it, it will appear here by date.
Risk of weak demand, China’s overproduction, and fluctuations in steel product and scrap prices | OSAKA STEEL CO.,LTD. (5449) | Komori