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Plan assumptionsApproximately 40% of the population will be aged 65 or older (from 2060 onward), 57.7% of people aged 85 or older are eligible for home-visit nursing services, Number of home-visit nursing stations: 18,743 as of April 2025, CAGR of the number of home-visit nursing stations: 8.8%, Home-visit nursing market size: ¥1.1733 trillion, CAGR 12.3%, Key variables in the forecast: increases in demand driven by population aging, decreases caused by constraints on the supply of nurses, increases and decreases resulting from system optimization, and increases and decreases resulting from progress in the shift to home-based care
Size of the Target MarketThe home-visit nursing market has expanded approximately 5.5-fold over 14 years to ¥1.1733 trillion (CAGR 12.3%). The market is forecast to reach ¥1.9–2.3 trillion in 2030. Sources: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, “Overview of the Results of the National Medical Care Expenditure Survey,” “Overview of the Results of the Survey of Trends in Medical Care Expenditures,” and “Statistics of Actual Status of Long-Term Care Benefit Expenditures.”
| Item | Details |
|---|---|
| Progress against the plan | Annual update |
| Plan assumptions | Approximately 40% of the population will be aged 65 or older (from 2060 onward), 57.7% of people aged 85 or older are eligible for home-visit nursing services, Number of home-visit nursing stations: 18,743 as of April 2025, CAGR of the number of home-visit nursing stations: 8.8%, Home-visit nursing market size: ¥1.1733 trillion, CAGR 12.3%, Key variables in the forecast: increases in demand driven by population aging, decreases caused by constraints on the supply of nurses, increases and decreases resulting from system optimization, and increases and decreases resulting from progress in the shift to home-based care |
| Size of the Target Market | The home-visit nursing market has expanded approximately 5.5-fold over 14 years to ¥1.1733 trillion (CAGR 12.3%). The market is forecast to reach ¥1.9–2.3 trillion in 2030. Sources: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, “Overview of the Results of the National Medical Care Expenditure Survey,” “Overview of the Results of the Survey of Trends in Medical Care Expenditures,” and “Statistics of Actual Status of Long-Term Care Benefit Expenditures.” |
| Publication date | 2026.3 |
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