Risk of a sharp decline in petroleum product demand due to stronger climate change policies
First written in FY2019. 5 of 8 entries say "Worsened", first in FY2020. Latest entry: FY2026.
ENEOS Holdings moved to the "Worse" side of this theme in 2020, the same year as the typical company in this theme.
The whole theme swung hardest in 2020: 5 of 7 companies on the "Worse" side.
1 other company's latest entry also says "Other".
- FY2026Quantifying the Financial Impact of Climate Change RisksAnnual report
「Decrease in operating income assuming domestic oil demand declines by approximately 10% in 2030 and 40% in 2040 from 2023 levels」
The decline in oil demand due to the decarbonisation transition was estimated by scenario, including the rates of demand decline in 2030 and 2040 and the resulting impact on operating income. - FY2025SoftenedAnnual report
「The trend toward carbon neutrality has slowed, and we recognise that the full-scale branching of the energy transition may be delayed compared with previous assumptions.」
The possibility that the full-scale transition to decarbonisation may begin later than previously expected was indicated, weakening the outlook for the pace of the transition. - FY2024WorsenedAnnual report
「Under our Group's scenario, domestic fuel oil demand in the 2040 society will decline by approximately half from 2019 levels.」
Assuming an acceleration in the pace of the decarbonisation transition, the impact on operating income was quantified based on domestic fuel oil demand declining by approximately 20% in 2030 and by half in 2040. - FY2023WorsenedAnnual report
「As a result, although the direction of the social scenario outlined in the Long-Term Vision remains unchanged, we believe the pace of change will accelerate beyond the assumptions made when it was announced.」
The transition to decarbonisation was expected to accelerate beyond previous assumptions, and the risk of declining domestic fuel oil demand was reiterated and emphasised. - FY2022WorsenedAnnual report
「For fiscal 2022, we selected the risk of stronger demands for action in response to the transition to a decarbonised society as a key risk event. Going forward, the responsible departments will determine response policies and monitor progress in addressing the event.」
Stronger demands for action in response to decarbonisation were selected as a key risk event for fiscal 2022 and became a priority area for company-wide management. - FY2021WorsenedAnnual report
「In the Group's Long-Term Vision for 2040, we assume that domestic fuel oil demand will be approximately half its fiscal 2018 level in 2040. However, changes in attitudes toward work and mobility in recent years may accelerate the pace of decline further.」
In addition to the outlook for domestic fuel oil demand to halve, it was explicitly stated that the spread of new ways of working and mobility could further accelerate the decline in demand. - FY2020WorsenedAnnual report
「Domestic fuel oil demand is expected to decline year after year, reaching approximately half its current level by 2040.」
In addition to the conventional structural decline in demand, the outlook that domestic fuel oil demand will reach approximately half its current level by 2040 was presented, giving specific form and figures to the risk of a sharp decline in demand. - FY2019First statedAnnual report
「As the move toward a low-carbon society, as seen in the Paris Agreement, accelerates, petroleum product demand may decline faster than expected if climate change policies are strengthened and environment-related laws and regulations are changed or newly introduced in countries around the world.」
Progress in climate change policies and the transition to a low-carbon society was identified as a separate risk from demand declines caused by conventional fuel-efficient vehicles and fuel switching.