Downside Risks to the Global Economy from Geopolitical Risks and Political Developments in the US and Europe
First written in FY2018-Q1. 11 of 28 entries say "Reframed", first in FY2019-Q3. Latest entry: FY2027-H1.
Riso Kyoiku Group moved to the "Worse" side of this theme in 2019, 3 years before the typical company in this theme (2022).
The whole theme swung hardest in 2022: 46 of 79 companies on the "Worse" side.
6 other companies' latest entry also says "Reframed".
- FY2027-H1ReframedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, prolonged price increases continued to squeeze real income, strengthening consumers’ preference for thrift and desire to protect their livelihoods. In addition, the outlook for the economy remains a matter requiring close monitoring due to uncertainty surrounding international conditions, including the situation in the Middle East, and volatility in financial and capital markets.」
In addition to the previous focus on geopolitical risks, trade policy, and monetary policy, the disclosure identifies the situation in the Middle East, prolonged price increases, pressure on real income, and volatility in financial and capital markets as sources of economic uncertainty. - FY2026ReframedAnnual report
「During the current consolidated fiscal year, Japan’s economy continued on a moderate recovery trend against a backdrop of improving employment and income conditions, broader wage increases, and recovering corporate earnings. However, the economic outlook remains uncertain, amid concerns about rising global geopolitical risks, unstable international conditions, US trade policy, and monetary policy trends in various countries, as well as the impact on corporate activity and personal consumption of continued price increases driven by persistently high raw material prices and foreign exchange fluctuations in Japan.」
While noting the recovery in employment and income conditions and corporate earnings, the disclosure identifies geopolitics, US trade policy, monetary policy, rising prices, and foreign exchange fluctuations as sources of uncertainty. - FY2025ReframedAnnual report
「During the current consolidated fiscal year, a moderate recovery is expected to continue due to improvements in employment and income conditions, the effects of various policies, and increased inbound demand. However, the outlook remains uncertain, with concerns about the impact on the economy of soaring energy prices and raw material costs, foreign exchange fluctuations and other factors.」
The wording changed from focusing on geopolitical risks and interest-rate trends to identifying the impact of energy prices, raw material costs, and foreign exchange fluctuations on the economy as the principal concerns. - FY2025-H1ReframedAnnual report
「During the current interim consolidated fiscal year, wages rose against a backdrop of higher prices due to inflation, improving employment and income conditions. However, the outlook for the economy remains uncertain, with concerns that the lifting of the negative interest rate policy and subsequent additional policy rate hikes could affect consumption and investment.」
The wording shifted from focusing on yen depreciation, higher prices and geopolitical risks to acknowledging higher wages and improved employment and income conditions while expressing concern about the impact of the lifting of the negative interest rate policy and additional rate hikes on consumption and investment. - FY2025-Q1ReframedAnnual report
「During the first quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year, employment and income conditions improved, including through faster wage growth against a backdrop of increasingly severe labor shortages. However, real wages declined due to the impact of higher prices resulting from yen depreciation and other factors, and the economic outlook remains uncertain.」
The focus shifted from uncertainty centered on geopolitical and international conditions to uncertainty about the domestic economic outlook, including increasingly severe labor shortages, yen depreciation, higher prices, and declining real wages. - FY2024WorsenedAnnual report
「During the current consolidated fiscal year, Japan’s economy continued to normalize domestic economic activity, including inbound demand and employment and income conditions, following the reclassification of COVID-19 as a Category V infectious disease. However, the outlook remains uncertain due to the impact of geopolitical risks arising from unstable international conditions, persistently high energy prices, higher labor and logistics costs, changes in financial conditions, and surging raw material prices.」
While acknowledging the normalization of economic activity, the disclosure lists geopolitical risks, energy prices, labor and logistics costs, financial conditions, and raw material prices as downside factors and states that uncertainty continues. - FY2024-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「Although the economy has shown signs of a moderate recovery as economic activity suppressed by the COVID-19 pandemic has normalized, the outlook for the global economy has become more uncertain and unstable due to prolonged inflation, policy rate increases in Europe and the United States, substantial foreign exchange fluctuations associated with them, and rising geopolitical risks.」
While acknowledging a recovery resulting from the normalization of economic activity, the assessment worsened to reflect prolonged inflation, rate hikes in Europe and the United States, substantial foreign exchange fluctuations, and geopolitical risks, with increasing uncertainty about the global economic outlook. - FY2024-Q1ReframedAnnual report
「During the first quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year, Japan’s economy finally began to show signs of normalization in social and economic activity as restrictions on activities related to COVID-19 were eased, with some signs of economic recovery. However, conditions continued to warrant caution regarding downside risks from higher raw material prices resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, volatility in financial and capital markets, supply constraints and other factors. Uncertainty remains high and the situation remains unpredictable.」
The description shifted to acknowledge the normalization and partial recovery of social and economic activity following the easing of activity restrictions, while continuing to warn of downside risks involving raw material prices, financial markets and supply constraints resulting from the invasion of Ukraine. - FY2023RestatedAnnual report
「During the current consolidated fiscal year, Japan’s economy showed some signs of recovery due to measures to address COVID-19. However, in addition to geopolitical risks such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and issues involving China and Taiwan, economic risks such as yen depreciation associated with the Japan-US interest-rate differential and a sharp rise in domestic prices continue to increase, and the outlook remains uncertain.」
The disclosure continues to cite the invasion of Ukraine, issues involving China and Taiwan, yen depreciation, and higher domestic prices as factors contributing to uncertainty about the outlook. - FY2023-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「In addition to geopolitical risks such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and issues involving China and Taiwan, economic risks such as yen depreciation associated with the Japan-US interest-rate differential and a sharp rise in domestic prices continue to increase, and the outlook remains uncertain.」
In addition to the previously cited invasion of Ukraine, raw material prices, financial markets and supply constraints, issues involving China and Taiwan, yen depreciation due to the Japan-US interest-rate differential, and a sharp rise in domestic prices were added as risks. - FY2023-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「During the second quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year, Japan’s economy showed some signs of recovery due to measures to address COVID-19. However, conditions continued to warrant caution regarding downside risks from the global rise in raw material prices associated with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, volatility in financial and capital markets, supply constraints and other factors. Uncertainty remains high and the situation remains unpredictable.」
While noting some recovery due to measures to address COVID-19, the disclosure continues to warn of downside risks from higher raw material prices, volatility in financial and capital markets, and supply constraints associated with the invasion of Ukraine. - FY2023-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「During the first quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year, Japan’s economy showed some signs of recovery due to measures to address COVID-19. However, conditions continued to warrant caution regarding downside risks from higher raw material prices associated with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, volatility in financial and capital markets, supply constraints and other factors. Uncertainty remains high and the situation remains unpredictable.」
In addition to existing risks related to the infectious disease and international conditions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, higher raw material prices, volatility in financial and capital markets, and supply constraints were identified specifically as downside risks. - FY2022-Q3ReframedAnnual report
「During the third quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year, Japan’s economy was on a moderate recovery trend due to a decline in infections accompanying the spread of vaccination and the effects of various policies. However, the situation remains unpredictable, including the identification of new variants, and we believe that the economic outlook will remain uncertain.」
The wording changed to acknowledge a moderate recovery trend due to the spread of vaccination and other factors while also mentioning the identification of new variants and uncertainty about the outlook. - FY2022-Q1MitigatedAnnual report
「The impact of the spread of COVID-19 on the business remains limited at this time, but we will continue to closely monitor the situation.」
The disclosure states that the impact of COVID-19 on the business is limited at this time, while indicating that the situation will continue to be closely monitored. - FY2021-Q3ReframedAnnual report
「During the third quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year, Japan’s economy showed some signs of recovery as efforts were made to balance containing the spread of COVID-19 with economic activity. However, the outlook remains uncertain because economic activity could be constrained by stronger requests for self-restraint in response to a renewed increase in infections overseas and other factors.」
The wording changed from simply stating that restrictions on economic activity due to the infectious disease would continue to also mention signs of recovery and the risks associated with renewed increases in infections and stronger requests for self-restraint. - FY2021-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「During the second quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year, Japan’s economy continued to face an uncertain outlook. Social and economic activity was heavily restricted due to the spread of COVID-19, and although infection-control measures were implemented both in Japan and overseas, the timing of containment remained unforeseeable, compounded by unstable international economic conditions.」
The disclosure continues to describe restrictions on social and economic activity due to COVID-19 and uncertainty about the outlook because the timing of containment cannot be foreseen. - FY2021-Q1MaterialisedAnnual report
「During the first quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year, Japan’s economy experienced an unprecedented economic environment as the global spread of COVID-19 led to the declaration of a state of emergency in Japan. Although the state of emergency has now been lifted and domestic economic activity has resumed, we believe that conditions will remain relatively challenging, including uncertainty about the outlook.」
The disclosure states that the downside risks to the global economy and domestic economy previously identified had materialized as an actual economic environment due to the spread of COVID-19 and the declaration of a state of emergency. - FY2020ReframedAnnual report
「However, with regard to the outlook, the domestic economy is expected to become increasingly challenging due to the impact of the global spread of COVID-19.」
The focus of the downside factors affecting the global economy and domestic economy shifted from geopolitical and trade issues to the global spread of COVID-19. - FY2020-Q3ReframedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, the outlook remains uncertain due to the impact of unstable international conditions and downside risks to the economy associated with the consumption tax increase.」
The wording changed from specifically listing factors such as US-China trade friction to grouping them as unstable international conditions and downside risks to the economy associated with the consumption tax increase. - FY2020-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「During the second quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year, Japan’s economy maintained a moderate recovery trend against a backdrop of solid corporate earnings. However, the outlook remains uncertain, with concerns about the impact on personal consumption and other areas from global economic uncertainty caused by escalating US-China trade friction and the consumption tax increase.」
The escalation of US-China trade friction was explicitly identified as a global economic risk, while the impact of the consumption tax increase on personal consumption was added as a concern in Japan. The wording that the outlook remains uncertain was retained. - FY2020-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「Trade issues are having a significant impact on the global economy, creating an uncertain outlook.」
Trade issues were newly identified as a specific risk factor for the global economy, and their significant impact on the global economy and the uncertain outlook were noted. - FY2019WorsenedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, overseas, there are risk factors that could lead to an economic downturn, including worsening political conditions, raising concerns about possible spillover effects on the domestic economy.」
Worsening political conditions overseas were identified specifically as a risk that could lead to an economic downturn and spill over into the domestic economy. - FY2019-Q3ReframedAnnual report
「However, the global economy continues to face tangible uncertainty regarding stock prices, foreign exchange rates and other trends due to political instability and other factors.」
The wording changed from listing geopolitical risks and political developments in Europe and the United States to describing uncertainty in stock prices and foreign exchange rates against a backdrop of political instability. - FY2019-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「However, the global economy continues to face tangible uncertainty, including geopolitical risks.」
The specific factors cited in the previous quarter have been generalized, while the view that uncertainty due to geopolitical risks and other factors remains tangible has been maintained. The disclosure states that there have been no material changes in business and other risks. - FY2019-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「However, the global economy is facing tangible uncertainty, including geopolitical risks, political developments in Europe and the United States, and turmoil in international financial markets.」
The wording changed from “latent uncertainty remains” in the previous period to “tangible uncertainty,” with turmoil in international financial markets added as a specific factor. - FY2018-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「However, the global economy continues to face latent uncertainty, including geopolitical risks such as rising tensions surrounding North Korea, political developments in Europe and the United States, and concerns about slower growth in China.」
Geopolitical risks, political developments in Europe and the United States, and concerns about slower growth in China are reiterated as sources of global economic uncertainty. - FY2018-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「Nevertheless, uncertainty remains evident in the global economy, including geopolitical risks such as rising tensions surrounding North Korea, political developments in the United States, and concerns over slowing growth in China.」
Geopolitical risks, political developments in the United States, and concerns over slowing growth in China were reiterated as sources of uncertainty for the global economy. - FY2018-Q1First statedAnnual report
「Nevertheless, medium-term downside risks to the global economy, including geopolitical risks and political developments in the United States and Europe, remain evident.」
Geopolitical risks and political developments in the United States and Europe were presented for the first time as medium-term downside risks to the global economy.