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Financial Results Presentation3962CHANGE Holdings,Inc.Information and Communications, Services and Others

Fiscal Year Ending March 2027 First-Quarter Financial Results Presentation

In the first quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2027, revenue increased 9.9% year on year, while operating profit decreased 19.0% due to shareholder benefit expenses. Excluding shareholder benefit expenses, operating profit effectively increased 26.0% year on year, and the company explained that progress was in line with or ahead of its full-year plan.

Worth reading
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Direction
Mixed performance
Direction inferred from the company’s description.
Scale
9.9
Year-on-year change in revenue (%)
Wording
Conditional
How definitive the wording is.

Contents of this document

Financial Results PresentationFirst quarter of the fiscal year ending March 202713 items taken from the company’s own explanation
Financial Results Figures (The key points of this material are explained below)
Net Sales10,887 Millions of yen+9.9%
Operating profit491 Millions of yen-19.0%
Net income¥98 millions -76.7%profit attributable to owners of the parent
Operating profit margin4.5 %-1.6%
Full-year earnings forecast
Revenue
Downside floor57,823 Millions of yen
Limit59,000 Millions of yen
EBITDA
Downside floor14,118 Millions of yen
Limit15,118 Millions of yen
Operating profit
Downside floor11,500 Millions of yen
Limit12,500 Millions of yen
Profit attributable to owners of the parent
Downside floor6,690 Millions of yen
Limit7,311 Millions of yen
EPS
Downside floor¥99.33
Limit¥108.55
ROE
Downside floor13.9 %
Limit15 %
Dividend per share
Downside floor¥26
Limit¥26
Progress against full-year forecast　通期の予想に対して、いまどこまで進んだかの割合です。
Revenue
Downside floor18.8 %
Limit18.5 %
EBITDA
Downside floor8.4 %
Limit7.9 %
Operating profit
Downside floor4.3 %
Limit3.9 %
NEW-IT Transformation operating profit21
Publicitech operating profit
Downside floor7.4 %
Limit6.9 %
Profit attributable to owners of the parent
Downside floor1.5 %
Limit1.3 %
EPS
Downside floor1.4 %
Limit1.3 %
What the company explained in this material
Self-assessment against the planThe company's self-assessment against its own plan.
Each profit metric is in line with the full-year forecast. Operating profit is ahead of plan. Private-sector DX and M&A advisory services are slightly below budget.
Breakdown of Factors Affecting the ChangeReasons cited by the Company for the change in the figures.
Revenue
  • Private-Sector DX and M&A Advisory1 Millions of yen
  • Cybersecurity126 Millions of yen
  • Regional Revitalization249 Millions of yen
  • Public DX533 Millions of yen
  • Adjustments67 Millions of yen
Operating profit
  • NEW-IT Transformation128 Millions of yen
  • Public Tech127 Millions of yen
  • Adjustments-97 Millions of yen
  • Shareholder Benefit Costs-273 Millions of yen
Assumptions Underlying the Business OutlookThe assumptions used by the company in preparing its forecast.
  • ¥13,314 million
    Assumptions2025 furusato nozei market size
    Year-on-year (%)4.6
  • Down 15–20% year on year
    AssumptionsFurusato nozei market from January to June 2026
  • ¥2.7 trillion
    AssumptionsScale of furusato nozei donation deductions
  • 6,000 10,000 people
    AssumptionsGovernment target for inbound visitors (2030)
New initiatives
  • CyLeague HD and SMBC Cyber Front jointly developed the AI-powered Cyberattack Response Navigator, scheduled to launch in October 2026
  • IDR launched the Trusted AX Support Service
  • Won a contract from Akita Prefecture for a demonstration project using drones for bear-control measures
  • The number of municipalities using Govmates Pit exceeded 400
  • Entered into a business partnership with AeroNext to develop DX solutions for crisis management using AI
Key KPIsA metric the company considers important as a management benchmark.
  • EBITDA1,200 Millions of yen
    Year-on-year (%)-6.8
  • New engagements163 Engagements
    Year on year against the same period last yearAbove the same period of the previous year
  • Front-line sales headcount155 people
  • Number of municipalities using LoGo Chat1,575 Local government
    Year on year against the same period last year+10.1%
  • Number of municipalities using LoGo Form889 Local government
    Year on year against the same period last year+12.0%
  • Number of municipalities using LoGo AI Assistant205 Local government
  • Number of municipalities using Govmates Pit400 Local government
  • Furusato Choice GMVDown 7.3% year on year
    Year on year against the same period last year-7.3%
Segment results
  • NEW-IT Transformation
    Revenue6,214
    Profit
    Operating profit 415
    Revenue_yoy_pct2.1
    Operating profit_yoy_pct44.6
  • Public Tech
    Revenue4,738
    Profit
    Operating profit 927
    Revenue_yoy_pct19.8
    Operating profit_yoy_pct15.9
  • Private-Sector DX and M&A Advisory
    Revenue5,319
    Revenue_yoy_pct0
  • Cybersecurity
    Revenue894
    Revenue_yoy_pct16.5
  • Regional Revitalization
    Revenue3,217
    Revenue_yoy_pct8.4
  • Public DX
    Revenue1,521
    Revenue_yoy_pct54.1
Medium-term management plan targets
Target fiscal yearFiscal year ending March 2030
Revenue¥70,000 million EPS: ¥; operating margin: %
Operating profit¥18,000 million EPS: ¥; operating margin: %
Operating profit margin¥25.7 million EPS: ¥; operating margin: %
Profit for the period attributable to owners of the parent¥11,000 million EPS: ¥; operating margin: %
EPS¥168 million EPS: ¥; operating margin: %
Comparison with actual resultsThe fiscal year ended March 2026 results are shown for comparison, including revenue of ¥52,827 million and operating profit of ¥11,225 million
Financial targets
ROE
FY3/26 results15.8 %
FY3/30 target16.5 %
Equity ratio
Results at the end of June FY3/2745.6 %
Net debt/EBITDA
End of June FY3/270.2 times
Internal disciplineNo more than 2x
Market Size / Share
  • Domestic DX market¥5,275.9 billion in fiscal 2024 and ¥9,266.6 billion in fiscal 2030
  • M&A BrokerageApproximately 1.27 million companies without a successor, including approximately 600,000 companies at risk of profitable business closures
  • Cybersecurity¥652.6 billion in fiscal 2023 and ¥959.9 billion in fiscal 2029
  • Hometown Tax Donations¥1,331.4 billion in 2025
  • Inbound Tourism36.87 million in 2024; target of 60.00 million in 2030
  • Govmates PitApproximately 23% of municipalities nationwide
Orders received and order backlog
Public DX
Order backlog¥18 million
Number of employees
Number of EmployeesFront-line sales: 155 people (at the end of June)
Changes during the period and hiring planA gradual increase to a workforce of approximately 160 people is expected during the current fiscal year
Annual Dividend
Annual dividend per share¥26
Payout ratio
Downside floor26.2 %
Limit24 %
Contents of this document
ItemDetails
Document typeFinancial Results Presentation
Fiscal Period CoveredFirst quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2027
Net Sales10,887 Millions of yen (YoY +9.9%)
Operating profit491 Millions of yen (YoY -19.0%)
Net income¥98 millions (profit attributable to owners of the parent) (YoY -76.7%)
Operating profit margin4.5 % (YoY -1.6%)
Full-year earnings forecastRevenue Downside floor 57,823 Millions of yen / Limit 59,000 Millions of yen / EBITDA Downside floor 14,118 Millions of yen / Limit 15,118 Millions of yen / Operating profit Downside floor 11,500 Millions of yen / Limit 12,500 Millions of yen / Profit attributable to owners of the parent Downside floor 6,690 Millions of yen / Limit 7,311 Millions of yen / EPS Downside floor ¥99.33 / Limit ¥108.55 / ROE Downside floor 13.9 % / Limit 15 % / Dividend per share Downside floor ¥26 / Limit ¥26
Progress against full-year forecastRevenue Downside floor 18.8 % / Limit 18.5 % / EBITDA Downside floor 8.4 % / Limit 7.9 % / Operating profit Downside floor 4.3 % / Limit 3.9 % / NEW-IT Transformation operating profit 21 / Publicitech operating profit Downside floor 7.4 % / Limit 6.9 % / Profit attributable to owners of the parent Downside floor 1.5 % / Limit 1.3 % / EPS Downside floor 1.4 % / Limit 1.3 %
Self-assessment against the planEach profit metric is in line with the full-year forecast. Operating profit is ahead of plan. Private-sector DX and M&A advisory services are slightly below budget.
Segment resultsSegment NEW-IT Transformation / Revenue 6,214 Millions of yen / Profit Operating profit 415 / Revenue_yoy_pct 2.1 Millions of yen / Operating profit_yoy_pct 44.6 Millions of yen, Segment Public Tech / Revenue 4,738 Millions of yen / Profit Operating profit 927 / Revenue_yoy_pct 19.8 Millions of yen / Operating profit_yoy_pct 15.9 Millions of yen, Segment Private-Sector DX and M&A Advisory / Revenue 5,319 Millions of yen / Revenue_yoy_pct 0 Millions of yen, Segment Cybersecurity / Revenue 894 Millions of yen / Revenue_yoy_pct 16.5 Millions of yen, Segment Regional Revitalization / Revenue 3,217 Millions of yen / Revenue_yoy_pct 8.4 Millions of yen, Segment Public DX / Revenue 1,521 Millions of yen / Revenue_yoy_pct 54.1 Millions of yen
Breakdown of Factors Affecting the ChangeRevenue Factors Private-Sector DX and M&A Advisory / Amount 1 Millions of yen, Factors Cybersecurity / Amount 126 Millions of yen, Factors Regional Revitalization / Amount 249 Millions of yen, Factors Public DX / Amount 533 Millions of yen, Factors Adjustments / Amount 67 Millions of yen / Operating profit Factors NEW-IT Transformation / Amount 128 Millions of yen, Factors Public Tech / Amount 127 Millions of yen, Factors Adjustments / Amount -97 Millions of yen, Factors Shareholder Benefit Costs / Amount -273 Millions of yen
Key KPIsIndicator name EBITDA / Value 1,200 Millions of yen / Year-on-year (%) -6.8 Millions of yen, Indicator name New engagements / Value 163 Engagements / Year on year against the same period last year Above the same period of the previous year, Indicator name Front-line sales headcount / Value 155 people / Year on year against the same period last year Not disclosed, Indicator name Number of municipalities using LoGo Chat / Value 1,575 Local government / Year on year against the same period last year 10.1 Local government, Indicator name Number of municipalities using LoGo Form / Value 889 Local government / Year on year against the same period last year 12 Local government, Indicator name Number of municipalities using LoGo AI Assistant / Value 205 Local government / Year on year against the same period last year Not disclosed, Indicator name Number of municipalities using Govmates Pit / Value 400 Local government / Year on year against the same period last year Not disclosed, Indicator name Furusato Choice GMV / Value Down 7.3% year on year / Year on year against the same period last year -7.3 %
Number of employeesNumber of Employees Front-line sales: 155 people (at the end of June) / Changes during the period and hiring plan A gradual increase to a workforce of approximately 160 people is expected during the current fiscal year
Assumptions Underlying the Business OutlookAssumptions 2025 furusato nozei market size / Value ¥13,314 million / Year-on-year (%) ¥4.6 million, Assumptions Furusato nozei market from January to June 2026 / Value Down 15–20% year on year, Assumptions Scale of furusato nozei donation deductions / Value ¥2.7 trillion, Assumptions Government target for inbound visitors (2030) / Value 6,000 10,000 people
Medium-term management plan targetsTarget fiscal year Fiscal year ending March 2030 / Revenue ¥70,000 million (EPS: ¥; operating margin: %) / Operating profit ¥18,000 million (EPS: ¥; operating margin: %) / Operating profit margin ¥25.7 million (EPS: ¥; operating margin: %) / Profit for the period attributable to owners of the parent ¥11,000 million (EPS: ¥; operating margin: %) / EPS ¥168 million (EPS: ¥; operating margin: %) / Comparison with actual results The fiscal year ended March 2026 results are shown for comparison, including revenue of ¥52,827 million and operating profit of ¥11,225 million
Financial targetsROE FY3/26 results 15.8 % / FY3/30 target 16.5 % / Equity ratio Results at the end of June FY3/27 45.6 % / Net debt/EBITDA End of June FY3/27 0.2 times / Internal discipline No more than 2x
Annual DividendAnnual dividend per share ¥26 / Interim and Year-End Breakdown Not disclosed
Payout ratioDownside floor 26.2 % / Limit 24 %
Orders received and order backlogPublic DX Order backlog ¥18 million
Market Size / ShareMarket Domestic DX market / Value ¥5,275.9 billion in fiscal 2024 and ¥9,266.6 billion in fiscal 2030, Market M&A Brokerage / Value Approximately 1.27 million companies without a successor, including approximately 600,000 companies at risk of profitable business closures, Market Cybersecurity / Value ¥652.6 billion in fiscal 2023 and ¥959.9 billion in fiscal 2029, Market Hometown Tax Donations / Value ¥1,331.4 billion in 2025, Market Inbound Tourism / Value 36.87 million in 2024; target of 60.00 million in 2030, Market Govmates Pit / Value Approximately 23% of municipalities nationwide
New initiativesCyLeague HD and SMBC Cyber Front jointly developed the AI-powered Cyberattack Response Navigator, scheduled to launch in October 2026, IDR launched the Trusted AX Support Service, Won a contract from Akita Prefecture for a demonstration project using drones for bear-control measures, The number of municipalities using Govmates Pit exceeded 400, Entered into a business partnership with AeroNext to develop DX solutions for crisis management using AI
Items this document does not state (10)
Ordinary incomeGross Profit MarginSelling, general and administrative expensesResults for the three months of the current quarterUnit price and quantity metricsNumber of stores and locationsRisk amount incorporated into the outlookAcquisition of treasury sharesCapital expendituresKey points of the Q&A

These are items the company does not state in this document. We do not leave them blank, nor fill them in from other sources or by inference.

The reasons the company gives

The company's own explanation, not something inferred from the numbers.

Revenue was driven by growth in Public DX, including consulting services for central government ministries and agencies, within the Publicitech segment. Operating profit declined due to ¥273 million in shareholder benefit expenses introduced in the second half of the previous fiscal year, but increased 26.0% excluding those expenses. Furusato Choice GMV declined due to the ban on awarding points, but an increased share of the core Choice business and newly consolidated businesses contributed to revenue growth.

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Fiscal Year Ending March 2027 First-Quarter Financial Results Presentation | CHANGE Holdings,Inc. (3962) timely disclosure | Komori