Expectations for economic improvement driven by a recovery in production and public investment
First written in FY2017-Q3. 6 of 29 entries say "Worsened", first in FY2019-Q1. Latest entry: FY2026.
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- FY2026RestatedAnnual report
「The Index of Industrial Production has also alternated between increases and declines, and the underlying assessment has remained “fluctuating” since July 2024.」
Industrial production continues to alternate between increases and declines, with the underlying outlook assessment remaining “fluctuating.” - 2026-05-13OtherEarnings
「The Japanese economy during the current consolidated fiscal year, from 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026, expanded moderately after the downward pressure on economic activity from the impact of tariffs at the beginning of the period proved limited. However, the outlook remains uncertain due to rising tensions in the Middle East. The Industrial Production Index has also alternated between increases and declines, and the assessment of its underlying trend has remained at “moving sideways” since July 2024.」
The company states that the economy expanded moderately, while noting uncertainty about the outlook due to rising tensions in the Middle East and that production has continued to move sideways. - FY2024WorsenedAnnual report
「As a result, the March underlying assessment for industrial production was “fluctuating but weakening.”」
Production has alternated between recovery and decline, and the underlying assessment at the end of the fiscal year has deteriorated from “fluctuating” to “fluctuating but weakening.” - FY2024-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「Production had been rising since September, driven by solid performance in motor vehicles and related industries, but declined again in November. In December, many industries, led mainly by general-purpose and business-use machinery, increased, but the outlook remained uncertain on an averaged basis, and the December underlying assessment for industrial production was left unchanged from the end of the second quarter at “fluctuating.”」
Production has alternated between monthly increases and declines, and the underlying assessment remains “fluctuating,” unchanged from the end of the second quarter, with the outlook uncertain. - FY2024-Q2Production is fluctuating, leaving the outlook uncertainAnnual report
「The Index of Industrial Production was on an upward trend from April as the impact of shortages of components eased, among other factors, but declined from July due to lower orders for production machinery and the suspension of operations at motor vehicle plants. Although production rose across many industries in September, the outlook remained uncertain on an averaged basis, and the September underlying assessment for industrial production was described as “fluctuating.”」
The assessment has shifted from the recovery seen in the first quarter to a view that production is fluctuating and the outlook is uncertain, with declines from July onward coexisting with a rebound in September. - FY2024-Q1Production is gradually recovering but fluctuating month to monthAnnual report
「The Index of Industrial Production rose in April, led mainly by motor vehicles and related industries, but declined across a broad range of industries in May, while the recovery in motor vehicles and related industries also paused. In June, the index rose overall as motor vehicles and related industries increased on the back of solid sales for overseas and domestic markets, among other factors. The underlying assessment was left unchanged at “production is showing signs of a gradual recovery.”」
Production is showing signs of recovery, led by motor vehicles and related industries, but the recovery has been accompanied by monthly fluctuations, including a decline across a broad range of industries in May. - FY2023-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「Production increased in July and August as the impact of shortages of components eased, among other factors, but declined in September and October as a reaction to the earlier increases. It increased in November but declined in December, resulting in a weakening trend.」
Production rose temporarily after the impact of component shortages eased, but declined in September, October and December, leaving it on a weakening trend at the end of the quarter. - FY2023-Q2Production declined again after recoveringAnnual report
「Production increased in July and August as the impact of shortages of components eased, among other factors, but declined in September partly as a reaction to the earlier increase.」
Production increased in July and August as supply constraints eased after the lockdowns in Chinese cities, but declined in September as a reaction to the earlier increase, indicating that the recovery in production has not been uniform. - FY2023-Q1Production recovers after supply constraintsAnnual report
「Production declined from April to May due to factors including parts shortages caused by lockdowns in Chinese cities, but turned upward in June after the lockdowns were lifted.」
Industrial production declined because of parts shortages caused by lockdowns in Chinese cities, then turned upward in June after the lockdowns were lifted. - FY2022Recovery led by manufacturing, with non-manufacturing industries stagnatingAnnual report
「Overall, during the fiscal year under review, Japan's economy recovered from the sharp downturn in the previous fiscal year, led by manufacturing. However, conditions remained difficult in non-manufacturing industries, and the economy as a whole did not return to pre-pandemic levels. The delayed recovery was particularly pronounced compared with other advanced economies.」
The recovery has been led by manufacturing, while non-manufacturing industries remain under severe pressure, indicating that the economic recovery is diverging across industries. - FY2022-Q3Production recovers after supply constraintsAnnual report
「After negative growth in the January-March quarter, growth returned to slightly positive territory in the April-June quarter, but the July-September quarter fell back into negative growth as the fifth wave of infections spread and automobile production was constrained by disruptions in the supply of parts and materials. In the October-December quarter, spending on face-to-face services recovered as the spread of infections eased, and automobile production gradually recovered, with the economy expected to return to positive growth.」
While production fell short in the July-September quarter because of disruptions in the supply of parts and materials, the assessment indicates that automobile production gradually recovered in the October-December quarter. - FY2022-Q2Supply constraints emerge in the manufacturing recoveryAnnual report
「In manufacturing, the industrial production index for July-September fell quarter on quarter, as automobile production was forced to decline because of semiconductor shortages and disruptions in parts supplies from Southeast Asia,」
While manufacturing continued to recover, semiconductor shortages and disruptions in parts supplies led to lower automobile production and a decline in the industrial production index. - FY2022-Q1A manufacturing recovery and a widening divide in non-manufacturingAnnual report
「Corporate earnings became increasingly polarized. In manufacturing, the recovery trend in production continued, driven by rising exports against the backdrop of a steady recovery in overseas economies. Capital investment also turned upward. Meanwhile, consumer-related non-manufacturing sectors, including lodging and food services, remained in a difficult situation.」
While exports, production and capital investment recovered in manufacturing, consumer-related non-manufacturing sectors remained in a difficult situation, and the economic recovery diverged by industry. - FY2021-Q3A differentiated recovery after infections surged againAnnual report
「In the July-September quarter, goods exports first turned upward, manufacturing increased production across a broad range of industries, led by automobiles, and non-manufacturing sales turned upward as businesses reopened and foot traffic recovered. As a result, corporate sales and ordinary profit across all industries increased, and real GDP growth was substantially positive. In the October-December quarter, goods exports continued to increase and the recovery continued, particularly in manufacturing, but the recovery in non-manufacturing slowed as infections spread again from November onward.」
After a substantial decline, the economy recovered, led by exports and manufacturing, while the recovery in non-manufacturing slowed because infections spread again. - FY2021-Q2A limited recovery after a substantial deteriorationAnnual report
「As a result, real GDP in the July-September quarter is expected to post substantial positive growth, but the recovery is expected to be limited compared with the decline in the April-June quarter.」
While a recovery in the July-September quarter is expected after the largest contraction on record in the April-June quarter, the text states that the recovery will be limited compared with the decline. - FY2021-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「The industrial production index continued to decline month on month from February onward. In addition to substantial production cuts in automobiles and production machinery, production cuts progressed across a broad range of industries.」
The assessment has deteriorated from a domestic production recovery and economic improvement trend to a decline in industrial production and production cuts across a broad range of industries. - FY2020WorsenedAnnual report
「The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been substantial, and it is expected to take time for economic activity to return to normal.」
Following the consumption tax increase and natural disasters, the text states that the domestic economy entered a recessionary phase because of the COVID-19 pandemic. - FY2020-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「During the nine months ended 31 December 2019 (1 April 2019 to 31 December 2019), Japan's economy remained generally firm, although signs of stagnation in manufacturing gradually intensified.」
While the domestic economy remained generally firm, the text also describes intensifying stagnation in manufacturing, as well as reduced production in the October-December quarter due to the consumption tax increase and natural disasters. - FY2020-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「During the six months ended 30 September 2019 (1 April 2019 to 30 September 2019), Japan's economy remained firm overall but continued to show signs of losing momentum.」
The assessment that the domestic economy remained firm while continuing to show signs of losing momentum continues. - FY2020-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「During the first three months of the fiscal year under review (1 April 2019 to 30 June 2019), Japan's economy remained on a gradual recovery trend, although it showed signs of losing momentum.」
While the gradual recovery trend was maintained, the assessment that the economy showed signs of losing momentum continues. - FY2019A recovery after the natural disasters, but a lack of strength in the economyAnnual report
「During the fiscal year under review, Japan's economy saw real GDP return to positive growth in the April-June quarter for the first time in two quarters, followed by substantial negative growth in the July-September quarter due to a series of natural disasters. Growth returned to positive territory in the October-December quarter as the impact of the disasters abated, and remained positive in the January-March quarter, but the economy lacked strength as exports weakened and domestic demand failed to grow.」
Although growth returned to positive territory after the temporary substantial contraction caused by natural disasters, the text states that the economy lacked strength because of weak exports and domestic demand. - FY2019-Q3A temporary slowdown caused by natural disasters, with a return to positive growth in prospectAnnual report
「After real GDP returned to positive growth in the April-June quarter for the first time in two quarters, the July-September quarter saw substantial negative growth because of a series of natural disasters. However, the impact of the disasters is expected to abate in the October-December quarter, supply constraints to ease and growth to return to positive territory through catch-up production and other factors.」
While natural disasters caused substantial negative growth in the economy in the July-September quarter, a return to positive growth in the October-December quarter is expected as supply constraints ease and catch-up production takes place. - FY2019-Q2The economic recovery trend remains intactAnnual report
「Real GDP in the April-June quarter returned to positive growth for the first time in two quarters. Although there were concerns about the impact of natural disasters, including an earthquake, torrential rains and a typhoon, in the July-September quarter, their impact was limited, and the economy overall remained on a gradual recovery trend.」
The text states that real GDP returned to positive growth, the impact of natural disasters was limited and the economic recovery trend continued. - FY2019-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「Real GDP growth in the January-March quarter of 2018 turned negative quarter on quarter for the first time in nine quarters, but this was because of the sharp decline in January, and the negative growth is expected to be temporary. Industrial production has moved within a flat range since the start of 2018, partly because of inventory adjustment in electronic components and devices.」
While real GDP turned negative quarter on quarter for the first time in nine quarters and industrial production remained broadly flat, the negative growth is expected to be temporary. - FY2018-Q3The run of consecutive quarters of positive growth extends to 7Annual report
「Real GDP in the July-September quarter recorded positive growth for the seventh consecutive quarter, and strength continued in the October-December quarter, with the economy remaining on a gradual recovery trend.」
Real GDP recorded positive growth for the seventh consecutive quarter, extending the six-quarter run as of FY2018-Q2. - FY2018-Q2The economic recovery trend continuesAnnual report
「Real GDP in the April-June quarter recorded positive growth for the sixth consecutive quarter, and the economy generally remained on a gradual recovery trend.」
The continuation of the economic recovery trend is described against the backdrop of six consecutive quarters of positive real GDP growth and strength in the corporate sector, exports and capital investment. - FY2018-Q1A positive trend in industrial production and strength in construction-related activityAnnual report
「Industrial production was generally on a positive trend, and business sentiment in manufacturing improved across both materials and processing industries, as exports of electronic components and devices increased on the growth in global IT demand. Elsewhere, construction-related activity remained firm,」
In addition to the production recovery, increased exports driven by IT demand and firm construction-related activity are described as factors supporting an economic improvement. - FY2017A production recovery and public investment become established as factors supporting the economy throughout the fiscal yearAnnual report
「From the July-September quarter onward, inventory adjustment had run its course, and production activity recovered, in addition to public investment and firm residential investment.」
Moving beyond the outlook for the third quarter, the text identifies the completion of inventory adjustment, a recovery in production activity and public investment as economic factors for the fiscal year. - FY2017-Q3First statedAnnual report
「The recovery trend in production, together with increased public investment under the government's economic measures, is expected to support a gradual economic improvement for the time being.」
The recovery trend in production and increased public investment under the government's economic measures are identified for the first time as factors supporting an economic improvement in the near term.