Economic Uncertainty Caused by a Slowdown in Emerging Markets, Yen Appreciation and Falling Stock Prices

「Amid concerns over the impact of the situation in the Middle East and fluctuations in financial and capital markets, both domestic corporate prices and consumer prices are rising, and the outlook remains uncertain.」

「During the six-month period ended 30 April 2026 (1 November 2025 to 30 April 2026), the Japanese economy has been recovering moderately, although the situation in the Middle East requires close monitoring. Personal consumption and capital investment showed signs of recovery, while exports and production remained flat. Corporate earnings showed signs of improvement, but prices continued to rise moderately, and concerns remain over the impact of the situation in the Middle East, developments in US trade policy and financial market volatility, leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「Meanwhile, corporate and consumer prices continue to rise, and the outlook for the economic environment remains uncertain.」

「During the six-month period ended 30 April 2024 (1 November 2023 to 30 April 2024), the Japanese economy saw improvements in employment and income conditions as social and economic activity normalized, although the recovery in personal consumption stalled due to rising prices and other factors. Meanwhile, the yen’s depreciation due to interest-rate differentials with other countries has persisted, and although inbound demand is recovering, geopolitical risks around the world have increased, leaving the outlook uncertain.」

「During the three-month period ended 30 June 2024, social and economic activity in Japan and overseas became increasingly normalized following the reclassification of COVID-19 as a Class 5 infectious disease. However, concerns remain over the impact on the economies of Japan and overseas of the yen’s continued depreciation due to interest-rate differentials with other countries, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and other factors, and the outlook remains uncertain.」

「As the classification of COVID-19 under the Infectious Diseases Control Law was changed to a Class 5 infectious disease, social and economic activity has been normalizing and inbound demand has been recovering. While the gradual recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic continues, resource prices have risen as the yen has depreciated due to interest-rate differentials with other countries, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased. Concerns remain over the impact on the economies of Japan and overseas, and the outlook remains uncertain.」

「However, in addition to geopolitical risks such as the situation in Russia and Ukraine, economic risks have increased globally, including a sharp rise in resource prices caused by the yen’s depreciation, and the outlook remains uncertain.」

「However, in addition to geopolitical risks such as the situation in Russia and Ukraine, economic risks have increased, including a sharp rise in resource prices caused by the yen’s depreciation and rising prices worldwide, and the outlook remains uncertain.」

「During the three-month period ended 31 January 2023 (1 November 2022 to 31 January 2023), the Japanese economy showed gradual signs of recovery in social and economic activity as restrictions related to the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic were eased. However, in addition to geopolitical risks such as the situation in Russia and Ukraine, economic risks, including a sharp rise in domestic prices due to the yen’s depreciation, have increased, and the outlook remains uncertain.」

「Meanwhile, geopolitical and economic risks surrounding Russia and Ukraine continue to increase globally, raising concerns about their impact on the economies of Japan and overseas, and the outlook remains uncertain.」

「Geopolitical and economic risks surrounding Russia and Ukraine continue to increase globally, raising concerns about their impact on the economies of Japan and overseas, and the outlook remains uncertain.」

「However, the outlook remains uncertain due to developments in the easing of restrictions overseas and concerns over a sixth wave of infections.」

「While vaccination is progressing overseas and economic activity is beginning to resume, vaccination has been delayed in Japan and infections with variants are spreading, leaving the outlook uncertain amid persistent concern and a sense of stagnation.」

「Globally, infections with COVID-19 variants are spreading, while the number of infections in Japan is also increasing, so concerns remain high and the outlook continues to be uncertain.」

「During the three-month period ended 31 January 2021 (1 November 2020 to 31 January 2021), a second state of emergency was declared in some regions of Japan due to the spread of COVID-19.」

「During the fiscal year, the Japanese economy experienced an extreme decline in demand as the global spread of COVID-19 continued and a state of emergency was declared in April, prompting widespread business closures nationwide and requests to refrain from nonessential, nonurgent outings.」

「During the nine-month period ended 31 July 2020 (1 November 2019 to 31 July 2020), the Japanese economy was affected by the spread of COVID-19, which led to the issuance of a state of emergency and the full-scale implementation of requests for business closures and refraining from going out. Personal consumption, corporate earnings and business sentiment deteriorated sharply. Although economic activity has gradually resumed since the state of emergency was lifted, the outlook remains extremely uncertain amid concerns over a second wave of infections.」

「However, as the global spread of the novel coronavirus, which began to spread in earnest in February, forced restrictions on economic activity, economies in Japan and overseas contracted rapidly. The economy entered a phase of concern over a shift from deterioration to recession, while the timing of an economic recovery also became impossible to forecast.」

「However, the increasing uncertainty over the impact on overseas economies of the US-China trade friction, the UK’s EU withdrawal, the situation in the Middle East and the global spread of the novel coronavirus is increasing downside risks to the domestic economy.」

「However, the impact on Japan of the prolonged US-China trade dispute, developments in the UK’s EU withdrawal negotiations and the situation in East Asia surrounding Japan has gradually become apparent, and uncertainty about the future remains high.」

「However, amid concerns over the potential impact on the global economy of developments in the UK’s EU withdrawal negotiations, trade issues involving various countries and geopolitical risks, uncertainty surrounding the Japanese economy continues to increase.」

「During the six-month period ended 30 April 2019 (from 1 November 2018 to 30 April 2019), business sentiment in Japan deteriorated and corporate earnings weakened as exports to Asia, including China, declined. In the external demand environment, the impact of trade issues, including the intensification of trade frictions between the United States and China, on the global economy was substantial, and conditions remained uncertain.」

「However, looking at the global economy, various risks have begun to emerge in the eurozone, in addition to the impact of domestic political risks arising from the divided US Congress and trade frictions between the United States and China, raising concerns about the impact on the domestic demand environment going forward, and the outlook remains uncertain.」

「However, conditions remained such that the economic outlook became increasingly uncertain toward the end of the fiscal year, amid concerns about the impact of international trade issues and policy developments.」

「Against this backdrop, the impact of trade frictions between the United States and China has begun to emerge in some areas, and the outlook remains uncertain, including the potential impact on domestic demand going forward.」

「Although overseas economies, including those of the United States, China, and emerging Asian economies, are gradually recovering, the outlook remains uncertain due to geopolitical risks in certain regions and the impact of trade frictions between the United States and China.」

「Although the global economy continues to grow moderately, the Japanese economy remains uncertain amid uncertainty in overseas economies stemming from political developments in the US administration, geopolitical risks, and fluctuations in financial and capital markets.」

「Although economic activity in the United States, Europe, China, and other emerging economies has been rising, domestic and external conditions remain uncertain due to concerns about downward pressure on the Japanese economy from political developments in the US administration and rising geopolitical risks, mainly around the Korean Peninsula.」

「Although economic conditions in China and emerging Asian economies are beginning to recover, the external demand environment remains uncertain due to rising geopolitical risks involving North Korea and other factors.」

「Although corporate earnings and employment and income conditions have continued to improve as a result of various government policies, including the decision at the March 2017 Monetary Policy Meeting to maintain the existing monetary policy, uncertainty in the external demand environment has intensified further due to concerns about US policy management and political developments surrounding European elections.」

「Nevertheless, the outlook for the economy remains uncertain due to the difficulty of assessing the direction of the new U.S. administration and uncertainty surrounding economic policy in emerging Asian economies, including China.」

「Although employment and income conditions had been recovering, the economy remained uncertain, with weak personal consumption and concerns about deteriorating corporate earnings caused by worsening sentiment following the Kumamoto earthquake in April, financial-market instability following the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the EU in June, and economic slowdowns in China and other resource-producing countries.」