Exposure to Overseas Raw and Brown Sugar Market Conditions and Weather Variability in Major Producing Countries

「In January and February, the market developed a sense of oversupply as production continued smoothly in Thailand and India, causing prices to fall to a five-year low of 13.78 cents in mid-February.」

「その後は、中東情勢の緊張による原油高でブラジルがエタノールへシフト、砂糖の供給減少懸念から反発となり、結局15.52セントで当期を終了しました」

「Overseas raw sugar prices opened at 18.89 cents per pound for nearby New York raw sugar futures. They reached a high of 19.63 cents in early April, then entered a downward trend amid concerns over US tariffs. Selling by speculators subsequently increased, sending prices to a four-year low of 14.68 cents at the end of June. Prices recovered to 17.05 cents in August, but temporarily fell to 15.10 cents amid expectations that production in south-central Brazil, a major sugar-producing region, was progressing smoothly. Buying back then emerged, and the period ultimately ended at 16.10 cents.」

「From May onward, cane crushing progressed smoothly in south-central Brazil, a major sugar-producing region that had entered its harvest season. Against this backdrop, and with sugar exports subsequently maintaining a strong pace, raw sugar prices fell to a low of 17.52 cents in mid-August. From mid-September, however, the prolonged dry season and fires in the region worsened the harvest outlook, causing prices to turn higher and reach a peak of 23.71 cents in late September. The period ultimately ended at 22.67 cents.」

「Prices subsequently moved weakly for a time as concerns about supplies receded against a backdrop of strong Brazilian production. However, they turned higher in late August as expectations strengthened that India would restrict sugar exports, reigniting supply concerns, and ultimately ended the cumulative second quarter at 26.27 cents.」

「From the beginning of the period, prices continued to rise on speculative buying against a backdrop of concerns about raw sugar supplies. External conditions, including soaring crude oil prices, provided further support, and prices rose to 27.41 cents in late April, the highest level in 11 years.」

「In February, prices reached a high of 22.36 cents on the settlement date for the March contract, the highest level since 2016, and ultimately ended the period at 22.25 cents.」

「Prices reached a high of 21.18 cents in mid-December, the highest level since 2017, and ultimately ended the cumulative third quarter at 20.04 cents.」

「Overseas raw sugar prices, for which the nearby contract on the New York raw sugar futures market began trading at 19.42 cents per pound, rose to a high of 20.51 cents in mid-April as surging crude oil prices resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine increased expectations that Brazil, a major sugar-producing country, would raise the proportion of ethanol produced from sugarcane, raising concerns about declining sugar production. From May onward, prices fell to 17.20 cents in August as Brazil's fuel-price reduction policy and expectations of increased Indian production strengthened, but were supported by firm demand recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic and ended the cumulative second quarter at 18.42 cents.」

「Amid surging crude oil prices resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, expectations increased that Brazil, a major sugar-producing country, would raise the proportion of ethanol produced from sugarcane. Concerns about declining sugar production also grew, and prices reached a high of 20.51 cents in mid-April. By mid-May, however, expectations strengthened that Brazil's policy of reducing fuel prices would lower ethanol production and increase sugar production, prompting a correction. Prices ultimately ended the cumulative first quarter at 18.83 cents.」

「Prices reached a temporary high of 20.69 cents in November. Thereafter, raw sugar prices continued to trade at elevated levels due to surging crude oil prices associated with the situation in Ukraine, ending the period at 19.49 cents.」

「Overseas raw sugar prices began at 14.71 cents per pound for the nearby contract on the New York raw sugar futures market and moved higher as speculative funds flowed into commodity markets amid concerns about supplies due to drought in Brazil, a major sugar-producing country, and expectations of a global economic recovery as vaccination progressed. In November, prices were also affected by rising agricultural commodity prices, including soybeans and wheat, due to adverse weather, reaching a temporary high of 20.69 cents. Thereafter, expectations of increased supplies strengthened due to rainfall in Brazil, prices fell as easing supply-demand conditions came into focus, and they ended the cumulative third quarter at 18.88 cents.」

「In mid-August, concerns about a supply shortfall emerged following reports of a significant reduction in Brazil's sugar production outlook, and prices reached a high of 20.37 cents. Prices then continued to trade at elevated levels and ended the cumulative second quarter at 19.83 cents.」

「In mid-May, prices reached a high of 18.25 cents as tighter supply-demand conditions came into focus. Speculative funds continued to remain abundant in commodity markets, and raw sugar futures prices continued to trade at elevated levels, ending the cumulative first quarter at 17.63 cents.」

「As concerns about supplies increased due to poor harvests in Thailand, India and elsewhere, and speculative funds flowed into agricultural commodities at an accelerating pace amid expectations of an economic recovery and rising inflation expectations as vaccination progressed, prices reached a high of 18.94 cents in mid-February, the highest level since March 2017.」

「Thereafter, economic support measures and monetary easing progressed in various countries, bringing speculative funds into commodity markets. In addition, concerns about sugar supplies increased from October due to poor harvests in Thailand, a major producing country, and other factors, driving prices to a high of 15.66 cents in mid-November. Prices held around that level and ended the cumulative third quarter at 15.49 cents.」

「Overseas raw sugar prices began at 10.39 cents per pound for the nearby contract on the New York raw sugar futures market. The global spread of COVID-19 affected the market, and prices reached a low of 9.05 cents in late April, the lowest level since 2007. Thereafter, speculative funds flowed into commodity markets amid expectations for economic stimulus measures in various countries, and prices reached a high of 13.28 cents in mid-August. Solid demand was subsequently confirmed in major sugar-importing countries such as China, and prices ended the cumulative second quarter at 13.07 cents.」

「Overseas raw sugar prices began at 10.39 cents per pound for the nearby contract on the New York raw sugar futures market. Against the backdrop of the spread of COVID-19 and sluggish energy prices resulting from falling crude oil prices, Brazil, a major producing country entering its peak harvest season, increasingly shifted production from less profitable ethanol to sugar, and prices reached a low of 9.05 cents in late April, the lowest level since June 2007. From June, expectations of an economic recovery strengthened as equity markets remained firm, and prices reached a high of 12.27 cents. Thereafter, the upside was capped as several statistical agencies forecast ample inventories, and prices ended the cumulative first quarter at 11.84 cents.」

「From October, rising crude oil prices strengthened the shift in Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer, toward increasing the proportion of ethanol produced from sugarcane. In addition, expectations of lower production in major Northern Hemisphere producing countries pushed prices higher, and prices reached a high of 15.96 cents in mid-February. Thereafter, affected by the rapid declines in crude oil prices and the Brazilian real toward the end of the period due to the spread of COVID-19 and other factors, prices ended the period at 10.42 cents.」

「Overseas raw sugar prices began at 12.53 cents per pound for the nearby contract on the New York raw sugar futures market and fell to a low of 10.68 cents in mid-September amid a perceived surplus of physical sugar in the Northern Hemisphere. From December, speculative short covering progressed due to rising crude oil futures prices and the appreciation of the Brazilian real, pushing up raw sugar futures prices to a high of 13.67 cents. Prices held around that level and ended the period at 13.42 cents.」

「Overseas raw sugar prices began at 12.53 cents per pound for the nearby contract on the New York raw sugar futures market. From May onward, reports indicated that harvesting was progressing smoothly in India and Thailand, major producing countries, and prices fell to a low of 10.68 cents in mid-September amid a perceived surplus of physical sugar. Prices then rebounded sharply due to speculative short covering as tighter supply-demand conditions in the Northern Hemisphere came into focus, ending the period at 11.92 cents.」

「Overseas raw sugar prices began at 12.53 cents per pound for the nearby contract on the New York raw sugar futures market. Affected by surging crude oil futures prices, Brazil, a major producing country, shifted toward ethanol production, and prices reached a high of 12.84 cents in early April. Meanwhile, prices fell to a low of 11.36 cents in late May after reports that harvesting was progressing smoothly in India and Thailand, where lower production levels had been a concern due to drought. Prices thereafter traded in a range from the mid-11-cent level to the mid-12-cent level and ultimately ended the period at 12.32 cents.」

「Prices remained on a downward trend against a backdrop of expectations of excessive production in India, a major producing country, falling to a low of 9.83 cents in late September. Thereafter, as persistently low international sugar prices strengthened the shift in Brazil from less profitable sugar production to ethanol production, prices reached a high of 14.24 cents in late October. They then came under pressure from falling crude oil futures prices and ended the period at 12.53 cents.」

「Overseas raw sugar prices began at 12.33 cents per pound for the nearby contract on the New York raw sugar futures market and rose to nearly 13 cents in early June on expectations of stagnant sugar production due to prolonged dry weather in Brazil, a major producing country. However, prices fell to a low of 9.83 cents in late September due to the decline in the Brazilian real and the Indian government's approval of measures to promote exports of surplus inventories. Prices then reached a high of 14.24 cents in late October following the appreciation of the Brazilian real and reports of lower Brazilian sugar production. From November onward, prices moved downward in response to falling crude oil futures prices and ended the period at 12.03 cents.」

「Overseas raw sugar prices began at 12.33 cents per pound for the nearby contract on the New York raw sugar futures market. After falling below 11 cents due to expectations of increased sugar production in India, a major producing country, prices moved higher amid expectations of stagnant Brazilian sugar production due to prolonged dry weather, reaching a high of 12.97 cents in early June. Prices then came under pressure from the decline in the Brazilian real, falling below 10 cents in late August for the first time in 10 years. Combined with the Indian government's approval of measures to promote exports of surplus inventories, this drove prices down to a low of 9.83 cents in late September, before they ended the period at 10.42 cents.」

「Overseas raw sugar prices began at 12.33 cents per pound for the nearby contract on the New York raw sugar futures market. Prices fell due to expectations of increased sugar production in India, a major producing country, and the Brazilian real's continued weakness against the US dollar, reaching 10.69 cents in late April, a low not seen for approximately 2 and a half years. Prices then moved higher in Brazil, a major producing country, amid expectations of stagnant sugar production due to the prolonged dry weather, reaching a high of 12.97 cents in early June. Thereafter, prices traded around 12 cents and ended the period at 11.86 cents.」

「From January onward, the downward trend became more pronounced amid further expectations of a supply surplus, including upward revisions to India's sugar production forecast, and prices recorded a low of 12.18 cents in late March, the lowest level in 2 and a half years, before ending the period at 12.35 cents.」

「Overseas raw sugar prices began at 16.93 cents per pound for the nearby contract on the New York raw sugar futures market and turned downward on expectations of increased global sugar supplies, reaching a low of 12.53 cents in late June, the lowest level in approximately 1 year and 4 months, before trading in a range from around 13 cents to the mid-15-cent level. Toward year-end, prices moved higher amid expectations of increased ethanol consumption in Brazil, a major producing country, resulting from rising crude oil futures prices, as well as concerns about declining sugar supplies, ending the period at 15.16 cents.」

「Overseas raw sugar prices began at 16.93 cents per pound for the nearby contract on the New York raw sugar futures market and reached an immediate high of 17.18 cents. However, the downward trend continued as expectations of a global supply surplus grew due to forecasts of increased sugarcane production in Brazil, a major producing country, and prices reached a low of 12.53 cents in late June. Thereafter, an upward trend driven by expectations of increased ethanol demand alternated with a downward trend driven by expectations of a sugar supply surplus, and prices ended the period at 13.54 cents.」

「Overseas raw sugar prices began at 16.93 cents per pound for the nearby contract on the New York raw sugar futures market and reached an immediate high of 17.18 cents. However, a downward trend continued against a backdrop of growing expectations of a global supply surplus due to forecasts of increased sugarcane production in Brazil, a major producing country, and prices also came under pressure from speculative selling, reaching a low of 12.53 cents in late June before ending the period at 13.68 cents.」

「Prices continued to rise against a backdrop of delays in cane crushing in central and southern Brazil and tightening supply-demand balances in India and China, reaching a four-year high of 23.90 cents in early October. Prices then fell due to selling by speculators, ending the period at 19.51 cents.」

「Overseas raw sugar prices began at 15.40 cents per pound for the nearby contract on the New York raw sugar futures market. Against a backdrop of declines in other commodity markets, including crude oil, prices fell to 14.00 cents in mid-April, but continued rising due to delays in cane crushing in central and southern Brazil and tightening supply-demand balances in India, China and elsewhere, reaching a high of 23.60 cents in late September before ending the period at 22.53 cents.」

「Overseas raw sugar prices began at 15.40 cents per pound for the nearby contract on the New York raw sugar futures market. Against a backdrop of declines in other commodity markets, including crude oil, prices fell to 14.00 cents in mid-April, but continued rising on weather concerns in major producing countries such as India, Thailand and Brazil, reaching a high of 20.94 cents in late June before ending the period at 20.15 cents, near that level.」