Declining demand due to a reduction in large-scale development projects following the Tokyo Olympics and population decline
First written in FY2016. 11 of 30 entries say "Worsened", first in FY2020-Q2. Latest entry: 2026-08-12.
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- 2026-08-12ReframedResults
「民間非居住建築物の着工床面積は230万㎡（同31.2％減）となり、事務所、店舗、工場及び倉庫はいずれも減少いたしました。」
大型開発後の需要縮小懸念に関連し、民間非居住建築物の着工減少を記載している。一方、都心オフィスについては空室率低下・賃料上昇を併記している。 - FY2025ReframedAnnual report
「In the construction industry, large-scale building plans in Tokyo's 23 wards continue for the time being without slowing, but concerns have been raised about the future impact on construction investment of rising labor costs, material prices, and interest rates.」
The description has been organized around the possibility that rising labor costs, material prices, and interest rates could constrain future construction investment, while large-scale building plans continue, rather than the previous concern about a decline in large-scale development. - FY2024ReframedAnnual report
「In the construction industry, large-scale building plans in Tokyo's 23 wards continue for the time being without slowing, but concerns have been raised about the future impact on construction investment of rising labor costs, material prices, and interest rates.」
The market view has been organized around the possibility that rising labor costs, material prices, and interest rates could constrain future investment, while large-scale building plans continue, rather than the previous concern about a decline in large-scale development after the Tokyo Olympics. - FY2024-Q2SoftenedAnnual report
「The average vacancy rate for office buildings in Tokyo’s five central wards fell into the 5% range from January 2024 and reached a 3-year low in March (source: Miki Shoji report). Although rents are showing signs of polarization, market conditions are changing, with signs of a strengthening recovery trend.」
Regarding the office market in connection with concerns about shrinking demand after the Olympics and large-scale development, the report states that vacancy rates have fallen and the recovery trend in rents has strengthened. However, rents remain polarized, and it does not state that overall demand risks have been eliminated. - FY2024-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「In the office leasing market in Tokyo’s five central wards, the vacancy rate was 6.03% in December 2023, remaining elevated, according to a survey by Miki Shoji. Average rent also remained below ¥20,000 per tsubo for 10 consecutive months. As the large supply of newly built offices is expected to continue for the time being, it is expected to take time to absorb vacant space.」
In relation to the demand environment after the Tokyo Olympics and large-scale development, the report describes persistently high vacancy rates and falling rents in Tokyo's five central wards, as well as the expected prolonged absorption of vacant space due to a large supply of new offices, reinforcing concerns about shrinking office demand. - FY2023ReframedAnnual report
「Business remained strong, supported by large-scale redevelopment in the Tokyo metropolitan area, new logistics centers, and large-scale factory investment in regional areas. Floor space for starts of non-residential buildings in the Tokyo metropolitan area was approximately 10.30 million m², down approximately 18.6% from the same period of the previous year, while estimated construction costs were approximately ¥3.1573 trillion, down approximately 4.9% year on year.」
In response to concerns about shrinking demand after the Olympics and large-scale development, the market view has been organized to reflect demand from redevelopment, logistics centers, and regional factory investment, while also noting declines in floor space for construction starts and estimated construction costs. - FY2023-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「Floor space for starts of non-residential buildings in the Tokyo metropolitan area decreased by approximately 17.2% from the same period of the previous year (October 2021 to March 2022), while construction orders received by the 50 largest general contractors decreased by approximately 1.2% year on year for the same period. In addition, the average office vacancy rate in Tokyo's five central wards remained in the mid-6% range, while average rents declined for the 32nd consecutive month, indicating that companies remain cautious about construction investment due to changes in work styles and rising inflation.」
The report describes declines in floor space for construction starts and orders received by major general contractors, persistently high vacancy rates, falling rents, and cautious construction investment against a backdrop including a lull in large-scale projects and changes in work styles. - FY2023-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「In the office leasing market in Tokyo’s five central wards, tenant contract cancellations and moves to reduce leased space have continued, particularly among large companies with high rates of telework, as remote work has spread and taken hold during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to a survey by Miki Shoji, the vacancy rate remained elevated at 6.47% in December 2022, while average rent per tsubo fell to ¥20,059, marking 29 consecutive months of decline. As a large volume of supply is expected in 2023 and 2025, easing supply and demand, properties with less competitive advantages than other buildings are expected to take time to absorb vacant space.」
Against a backdrop of the entrenchment of remote work, large companies terminating or downsizing tenant leases, persistently high vacancy rates, falling rents, and the expected large volume of new supply, concerns about shrinking demand after the Olympics and large-scale development have continued and taken concrete form in the actual conditions of the office market. - FY2022WorsenedAnnual report
「According to the office rent survey by Nikkei Inc., companies have become cautious about office investment because of near-term economic concerns and the entrenchment of remote work, and office rents in Tokyo in the second half of 2022 (as of September) recorded their largest decline in 11 years. Office supply is expected to increase as newly built properties are completed, easing supply and demand and raising concerns about the impact on construction investment.」
In connection with shrinking demand after the Olympics and large-scale development, the report describes more cautious office investment due to the entrenchment of remote work, falling rents, easing supply and demand conditions due to increased supply, and concerns about the impact on construction investment. - FY2022-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「During the cumulative first 3 quarters under review, the construction industry remained sluggish, as the Tokyo metropolitan area entered a lull between large-scale urban redevelopment projects. In the third quarter, the floor area of non-residential buildings started in the region fell 34.9% year on year.」
The prolonged weakness in floor space for construction starts due to a lull in large-scale redevelopment in central Tokyo is described, and concerns about the demand environment after the Tokyo Olympics and large-scale development have continued. - FY2022-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「The business environment continued to deteriorate, partly because of a lull between large projects. According to Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism statistics, the floor area of non-residential buildings started in the Tokyo metropolitan area fell approximately 39.3% from the same period of the previous year (January–March 2022). Construction investment, including renovation work, was also postponed amid concerns about the economic outlook, including falling office rents and rising inflation.」
Against a backdrop of a lull in large-scale projects and concerns about the economic outlook, construction investment has been postponed, showing that the previously held concerns about shrinking construction demand have become an actual market condition. - FY2022-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「With no current factor likely to drive a significant recovery in office demand, the office vacancy rate in Tokyo's five central wards is unlikely to improve materially from 6.33% as of 31 December 2021, according to Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd.'s published figures, raising concerns about the impact on construction investment, and making future earnings forecasts difficult.」
Regarding the demand environment after the Tokyo Olympics and large-scale development, the view that there is no factor likely to drive a significant recovery in office demand and that the vacancy rate is unlikely to improve materially has continued. - FY2021WorsenedAnnual report
「Following the rebound from 2020, when supply of large-scale office buildings in Tokyo's 23 wards reached a 20-year high of 1.85 million m², supply is expected to fall sharply to 610,000 m² in 2021 and 510,000 m² in 2022.」
As a rebound from the large-scale office supply in 2020, a sharp decline in supply volumes in 2021 and 2022 is forecast, giving concrete form to concerns about market contraction after the Olympics and large-scale development. - FY2021-Q3MaterialisedAnnual report
「During the nine-month period of the fiscal year under review, the construction industry faced difficult market conditions as the special demand from the Tokyo Olympics and large-scale redevelopment in central Tokyo subsided and entered a lull, compounded by deteriorating business sentiment due to COVID-19.」
The subsiding of special demand from the Tokyo Olympics and large-scale redevelopment in central Tokyo, and the resulting entry into a lull, are described as the current market environment, indicating that the previously anticipated contraction in demand after the Olympics has become an actual condition. - FY2021-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「The vacancy rate in Tokyo's five central wards rose to 5.42% in March, marking a 13th consecutive monthly increase, while concerns include rising labor costs due to labor shortages and declining profitability due to intensified competition for orders, and we expect uncertain conditions to continue.」
In relation to the demand environment after the Tokyo Olympics and large-scale development, the vacancy rate in Tokyo's five central wards rose to 5.42%, marking a 13th consecutive monthly increase. - FY2021-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「In addition, as of December 2020, the average office vacancy rate in Tokyo's five central wards was 4.49%, up 2.94 percentage points from 1.55% a year earlier, indicating a trend toward looser supply and demand conditions, particularly for existing buildings.」
In connection with concerns about shrinking demand after the Tokyo Olympics and large-scale development, the rise in office vacancy rates in Tokyo's five central wards and the easing of supply and demand conditions, particularly for existing buildings, are indicated. - FY2020WorsenedAnnual report
「Private investment slowed after the spread of COVID-19, and floor space for starts of non-residential buildings in Tokyo during the fiscal year under review decreased by approximately 14% year on year.」
Private investment slowed after the completion of facilities related to the Tokyo Olympics and large-scale projects, while floor space for starts of non-residential buildings in Tokyo decreased by approximately 14% year on year. Concerns about shrinking demand after the Olympics and large-scale development were supported by actual results. - FY2020-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「Meanwhile, the floor area of nonresidential construction starts in the Tokyo metropolitan area fell approximately 22% year on year, partly because Tokyo Olympics-related facilities were completed and the market entered a gap between new construction projects.」
Facilities related to the Tokyo Olympics and other projects were completed, and the decline in floor space for construction starts resulting from new construction entering a lull was reflected in actual results, giving concrete form to concerns about shrinking demand after the Olympics. - FY2020-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「Facilities related to the Tokyo Olympics and a series of large-scale redevelopment projects reached completion, and finishing work was at its peak.」
Facilities related to the Tokyo Olympics and large-scale redevelopment projects reached the completion stage, indicating that traditional demand from the Olympics and large-scale development was nearing a turning point. - FY2020-Q1ReframedAnnual report
「Although construction investment in facilities related to the Tokyo Olympics has reached a turning point, demand for redevelopment projects in central Tokyo and the development of logistics hubs remains strong,」
While investment related to the Tokyo Olympics has reached a turning point, the outlook has been recast to include other demand drivers, reflecting strong demand for redevelopment in central Tokyo and the development of logistics hubs, rather than focusing solely on the risk of shrinking demand after the Olympics. - FY2019SoftenedAnnual report
「Demand for high-function, multi-tenant logistics warehouses also remains firm. Although construction demand is expected to settle temporarily, the industry overall is expected to continue on a gradual recovery trend after the Tokyo Olympic Games.」
The easing of construction demand after the Tokyo Olympics continues to be indicated, but the strength of demand for logistics warehouses and the outlook for a continued gradual recovery after the Olympics have also been indicated, relatively weakening concerns about a contraction in demand. - FY2019-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「No new business or other risks arose during the cumulative third quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year. There were also no material changes to the business or other risks described in the annual securities report for the previous consolidated fiscal year.」
The treatment that there have been no significant changes regarding the decline in large-scale development projects after the Tokyo Olympics and the contraction in demand due to population decline has continued. - FY2019-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「There were no newly emerging business or other risks during the cumulative second-quarter period. In addition, there were no material changes in the business or other risks described in the annual securities report for the previous consolidated fiscal year.」
The treatment of the contraction in demand due to fewer large-scale developments after the Tokyo Olympics and population decline as unchanged in any significant respect continues. - FY2019-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「No new business or other risks arose during the three months ended 30 June. There were also no material changes to the business and other risks described in the securities report for the previous fiscal year.」
The treatment remains that there have been no significant changes regarding the decline in large-scale development projects after the Tokyo Olympics and the contraction in demand due to population decline. - FY2018-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「No new business or other risks arose during the cumulative third quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year. There were also no material changes to the business or other risks described in the annual securities report for the previous consolidated fiscal year.」
The treatment of the contraction in demand due to fewer large-scale developments after the Tokyo Olympics and population decline as unchanged in any significant respect continues. - FY2018-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「There were no newly emerging business or other risks during the cumulative second-quarter period. In addition, there were no material changes in the business or other risks described in the annual securities report for the previous consolidated fiscal year.」
The contraction in demand due to fewer large-scale developments after the Tokyo Olympics and population decline is treated as unchanged in any significant respect. - FY2018-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「No new business or other risks arose during the cumulative first quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year. There were also no material changes to the risks described in the previous fiscal year.」
The contraction in demand due to fewer large-scale developments after the Tokyo Olympics and population decline is treated as unchanged in any significant respect. - FY2017RestatedAnnual report
「Over the medium to long term, we recognize that concerns about market fluctuations caused by uncertain factors cannot be dispelled, including a decline in large-scale development projects following the Tokyo Olympics and an emerging decline in demand for residential buildings due to population decline.」
The decline in large-scale developments after the Tokyo Olympics and the decline in demand for residential buildings due to population decline are reiterated as medium- to long-term market risks. - FY2017-Q3RestatedAnnual report
「No new business or other risks arose during the cumulative third quarter of the current consolidated fiscal year. There were also no material changes to the business or other risks described in the annual securities report for the previous consolidated fiscal year.」
The risks of fewer large-scale developments after the Olympics and population-related demand contraction continue to be described comprehensively, with no significant changes. - FY2016First statedAnnual report
「Over the medium to long term, we recognize that concerns about market fluctuations caused by uncertain factors cannot be dispelled, including a decline in large-scale development projects following the Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games and an emerging decline in demand for residential buildings due to population decline.」
The decline in development projects after the Olympics and the decline in demand for residential buildings due to population decline are identified as medium- to long-term market risks.