Housing Market Contraction Due to the Declining Birthrate, Aging Population and Fewer Households
First written in FY2016. 14 of 23 entries say "Worsened", first in FY2020. Latest entry: 2026-09-29.
Lib Work moved to the "Worse" side of this theme in 2022, 2 years after the typical company in this theme (2020).
The whole theme swung hardest in 2020: 12 of 17 companies on the "Worse" side.
0 other companies' latest entry also says "Cited as achieved".
- 2026-09-29Cited as achievedBusiness Plan
「新築住宅市場は完全なシュリンク市場であり、全国約35,000社の住宅会社・工務店の淘汰が進む。」
住宅市場縮小と住宅会社・工務店の淘汰を、Housing OSの提供機会として位置付けている。元スレッドは変更しない。 - FY2026WorsenedAnnual report
「New housing starts in 2025 totaled 740,667 units, down 6.5% year on year and marking the third consecutive annual decline. The housing market remained generally soft.」
Regarding the contraction of the housing market, the company disclosed that nationwide housing starts fell 6.5% year on year in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of decline. - FY2025Full-year decline continued, but the rate of decline narrowedAnnual report
「According to figures released by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, nationwide new owner-occupied housing starts from July 2024 through June 2025 totalled 210,348 units, down 3% year on year.」
Nationwide owner-occupied housing starts continued to decline, falling 3% year on year, although the rate of decline narrowed from 10% in the previous period. The risk of housing market contraction remains. - FY2024WorsenedAnnual report
「The housing industry has remained weak owing to soaring raw material prices. According to figures released by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, nationwide new owner-occupied housing starts from July 2023 through June 2024 totalled 216,164 units, down 10% year on year.」
The housing market remained weak, and nationwide new owner-occupied housing starts totalled 216,164 units for the full year, down 10% year on year. - FY2024-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「According to nationwide new owner-occupied housing starts released by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, starts fell 11.0% year on year in January 2024, 11.2% in February and 4.8% in March, marking 28 consecutive months of decline.」
The decline in nationwide owner-occupied housing starts lengthened from 25 to 28 consecutive months, with declines in the 11% range in January and February. The deterioration in housing market contraction risk continues. - FY2024-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「According to nationwide new owner-occupied housing starts released by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, starts fell 17.2% year on year in October 2023, 17.3% in November and 13.8% in December, marking 25 consecutive months of decline.」
The decline in nationwide owner-occupied housing starts lengthened from 22 to 25 consecutive months, with double-digit declines in the 17% range in October and November. The deterioration in housing market contraction risk continues. - FY2024-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「According to nationwide new owner-occupied housing starts released by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, starts fell 7.8% year on year in July 2023, 5.9% in August and 12.2% in September, marking 22 consecutive months of decline.」
The decline in nationwide owner-occupied housing starts reached 22 consecutive months, with year-on-year declines of 7.8%, 5.9% and 12.2%. The company continues to recognise a shrinking and stagnant housing market. - FY2023WorsenedAnnual report
「The housing industry has remained weak owing to shortages of housing materials, including those associated with the “wood shock,” and soaring raw material prices. According to figures released by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, nationwide new owner-occupied housing starts from July 2022 through June 2023 totalled 240,312 units, down 13% year on year.」
In addition to shortages of housing materials and soaring raw material prices, nationwide new owner-occupied housing starts fell 13% year on year for the full year, quantifying the contraction and stagnation of the market. - FY2023-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「The detached housing industry in which the company operates has remained weak. According to nationwide new owner-occupied housing starts released by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, starts fell 8.3% year on year in January 2023, 4.6% in February and 13.6% in March.」
The detached housing industry remained weak, while nationwide owner-occupied housing starts declined year on year from January through March 2023. - FY2023-Q2WorsenedAnnual report
「According to nationwide new owner-occupied housing starts released by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, starts fell 18.7% year on year in October 2022, 15.1% in November and 13% in December, marking 13 consecutive months of decline.」
Nationwide owner-occupied housing starts continued to decline by double digits, and the period of decline lengthened from 10 to 13 consecutive months. - FY2023-Q1WorsenedAnnual report
「According to nationwide new owner-occupied housing starts released by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, starts fell 14.1% year on year in July 2022, 11.2% in August and 13.3% in September, marking 10 consecutive months of decline.」
Nationwide owner-occupied housing starts declined by double digits from July through September and were reported to have fallen for 10 consecutive months. The figures indicate worsening market contraction risk. - FY2022WorsenedAnnual report
「Orders have begun to stabilise as a result of the impact of the spread of coronavirus variants on sales activities, shortages of housing materials including those associated with the “wood shock,” and soaring raw material prices.」
The company explains that orders have begun to stabilise owing to coronavirus variants, shortages of housing materials and soaring raw material prices, adding and specifying factors contributing to weakness in the housing market. - FY2022-Q3WorsenedAnnual report
「The detached housing industry in which the company operates has remained weak. According to nationwide new owner-occupied housing starts released by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, starts fell 5.6% year on year in January 2022, 5.6% in February and 9.4% in March.」
The company’s view shifted from the previous assessment that the market was broadly flat to an assessment that the detached housing industry was weak, while nationwide owner-occupied housing starts declined year on year from January through March. - FY2022-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「The detached housing industry in which the company operates has remained broadly flat.」
The company states that the detached housing market has been broadly flat. It explicitly states that there have been no material changes to business and other risks, and the positioning of the market contraction risk remains unchanged. - FY2021Slight increase nationwide, decrease in KyushuAnnual report
「According to new owner-occupied housing starts nationwide released by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism for July 2020 through June 2021, the total was 270,647 units, up 0.6% year on year. In Kyushu, the company’s main sales region, the total was 29,692 units, down 2.2%.」
Nationwide owner-occupied housing starts turned to a 0.6% year-on-year increase, while those in Kyushu, the company’s main sales region, fell 2.2%. The company disclosed divergent trends nationwide and in Kyushu regarding the risk of market contraction. - FY2021-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「New housing starts in the housing industry have remained weak. According to nationwide new owner-occupied housing starts released by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, starts fell 6.1% year on year in October 2020, then increased 1.5% in November and 2.4% in December.」
The company reaffirmed the weakness of the housing market, disclosing a decline in nationwide owner-occupied housing starts in October and increases in November and December. - FY2021-Q1RestatedAnnual report
「The detached housing industry in which the company operates has remained weak. According to figures released by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, nationwide new owner-occupied housing starts fell 13.6% year on year in July 2020, 8.8% in August and 7.0% in September.」
The weakness of the detached housing market is reaffirmed by the decline in nationwide owner-occupied housing starts from July through September 2020. The company states that there were no material changes to the risks related to its business and other matters. - FY2020WorsenedAnnual report
「In addition to the impact of the spread of COVID-19, housing starts are expected to continue declining gradually over the medium to long term as a result of the decline in the number of households caused by the declining birth rate and an aging population, the longer service life of homes resulting from improved quality, and changes in attitudes toward home acquisition reflecting increasingly diverse lifestyles. Competition among companies is also expected to intensify further.」
In addition to the previously cited declining birth rate, aging population and decline in the number of households, the company added the spread of COVID-19 as a factor contributing to market contraction and explained that the decline in housing starts is expected to continue. Nationwide owner-occupied housing starts fell 8.7% year on year, while those in Kyushu fell 11.8%. - FY2018-Q2RestatedAnnual report
「Although low-interest mortgages under the negative interest rate policy and government measures to support home purchases remain in place in the housing industry, the number of new owner-occupied housing starts nationwide has remained weak.」
The company explains that, while home-purchase support measures and low interest rates remain in place, nationwide owner-occupied housing starts have remained weak, reaffirming its existing view of a shrinking and stagnant housing market. - FY2017RestatedAnnual report
「Over the medium to long term, housing starts are expected to continue declining as a result of the decline in the number of households caused by the declining birth rate and an aging population, the longer service life of homes resulting from improved quality, and changes in attitudes toward home acquisition reflecting increasingly diverse lifestyles. Competition among companies is also expected to intensify further.」
The company reiterates the risk of market contraction due to the declining birth rate and an aging population, the decline in the number of households, the longer service life of homes, and changes in lifestyles. - FY2016First statedAnnual report
「The number of households in Japan is expected to peak in 2019 and then decline as a result of the declining birth rate and an aging population, and the decline in population and households is expected to have a significant impact on future housing starts.」
Assuming a long-term decline in housing demand, the company says it will respond by selling products for urban areas and expanding its sales territories.